Earlier this week, Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh extended an offer of negotiation to southern separatists who have grown increasingly strident about their grievances with Sana'a, but he also sounded a warning.
"I am certain the flags of separation will burn in the days and weeks ahead," Saleh said.
With thousands gathering across southern Yemen to protest today, Saleh got his chance to demonstrate the hard side of the government's carrot-and-stick approach.
Aside from a mid-February flare-up, the cease fire between the government of Yemen and the Huthi rebels in the north seems to be holding. So I guess that means it's time for the southern separatist movement to take on responsibility for unrest in the country: Yemeni security forces engaged in a gun battle while trying to arrest a reputed arms dealer in the southern Abyan province today, killing the man, his wife and his three children.
If I can paraphrase the latest statement (عربي) from Ali Mohamed Mujawar, Yemen's prime minister: We're not looking to start a sixth civil war with the Huthis, but we're not averse to it, either!
Mujawar warned today that the government would resume its fight against the Huthis unless they quickly implement the six terms of the cease-fire. The rebels say they're already well on their way to implementing the terms: The Huthis say they withdrew from Sa'ada province earlier today; they've returned all of their (living) Saudi prisoners; they've reportedly started dismantling roadblocks.
I said it two weeks ago, and I'll say it again: The West is really not serious about implementing a holistic Yemen policy.
The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees just approved a $5 million "bridge loan" so it can keep providing basic services to refugees and IDPs in northern Yemen. It's shifting money away from one UNHCR program, in other words, to keep its Yemen program afloat. UNHCR helps more than 250,000 people in Sa'ada province displaced by the Yemeni-Huthi and Saudi-Huthi fighting.
Why was this necessary? Because international donors have contributed less than 10 percent of the $40 million UNHCR needs to provide basic services this year -- and less than 3 percent of the $177 million it needs for longer-term efforts.
Making news out of Yemen this week: Huthi rebels in the country's north have returned a prisoner of war to Saudi Arabia, and Christmas Day underwear bomber Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab told investigators that he trained with other English-speaking Al-Qaeda terrorists-to-be in the country.
Not making news out of Yemen this week: American aid to the hundreds of thousands of Yemenis displaced by the Huthi rebellion.
Yemen's Huthi rebels have reportedly released the first of five Saudi Arabian prisoners of war in their custody.
Rebels say they released the first soldier, Yahya Abdullah al-Khazai, as a humanitarian gesture (عربي); Khazai was wounded in the leg during fighting earlier this year. The Huthis say they will free the other four prisoners "in the hours and days to come."
Saudi Arabia gave the rebels a 48-hour deadline to free their captives on Saturday. The rebels won't meet that deadline -- but Saudi Arabia doesn't seem interested in restarting the war just yet, and today's goodwill gesture will buy the Huthis some time.
Yemen's Huthi rebels say they have withdrawn their forces from around the airport in Saada province, and they're planning to release their Saudi prisoners of war (عربي).
The rebels say they're also close to removing the last of their roadblocks in Saada -- another one of the Yemeni government's six conditions for the truce. And they deny that they're responsible for yesterday's assassination attempt against Gen. Mohammed Abdullah al-Qussi, a deputy interior minister, whose car was sprayed with bullets yesterday.
The Yemeni government says Huthi rebels killed three soldiers and destroyed a government building in Saada province -- just hours after declaring a cease-fire.
AFP reports that the rebels tried to kill Gen. Mohammed Abdullah al-Qussi, the head of army operations in Saada. Qussi survived the assassination attempt, but several people were killed and injured in the shooting.
"I escaped an assassination attempt by the rebels who opened fire on my car," the head of army operations for Saada province, General Mohammed Abdullah al-Qussi, told AFP.
Qussi says the rebels also staged several other attacks in Saada's Iqab district. As usual, none of these claims can be independently confirmed.
Mareb Press quotes unnamed Yemeni military sources (عربي) who say they're holding up their end of the cease-fire. But the whole thing could quickly unravel: The last cease-fire, in September, fell apart after both sides accused the other of violating the truce.
Following up on this morning's post: Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh has announced a cease-fire with the Huthi rebels. Saleh read a decree announcing the truce on state television; it takes effect at midnight Yemen time (2100 GMT).
The state-run Al-Thawra has more details (عربي) on Saleh's decree. It's similar to the proposals that were reported this morning -- the "six conditions," several parliamentary committees to monitor their implementation, etc.
The big question now, of course, is whether it will hold. The north has not been quiet for long: AFP reported fighting late last night (عربي) in Amran province, which is due south of Saada province; 12 Yemeni soldiers and 24 rebels were reportedly killed following a surprise attack by the Huthis. And the last cease-fire, announced in September, collapsed after about 24 hours.
I tweeted yesterday about some new reports of an imminent cease-fire between the Yemeni government and the Huthi rebels.
Those reports have multiplied in the last 24 hours or so: Wire services report that both sides exchanged proposals this week, and Al-Jazeera's Hashem Ahelbarra says an envoy from Sana'a is meeting today with Abdel Malik al-Huthi, the rebel leader.
Anwar al-Awlaqi, the Muslim spiritual leader who leaped into the news following revelations of his contact with Ford Hood shooter Nidal Malik Hasan, gave a rare interview to Al-Jazeera over the weekend in which he laid out his support for attempted Christmas Day airline bomber Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab but said he did not personally order Abdulmutallab's attack.
Meanwhile, an audiotape posted on a jihadi forum, purportedly from the deputy commander of Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), Sa'id al-Shihri, called on Muslims in the region to "attack and eliminate" American and "Crusader" interests everywhere, according to the BBC.
Hard to tell, as usual, exactly what's happening up in Saada province, but Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh is signalling -- in word and in deed -- that he's not terribly interested in a cease-fire with the Huthi rebels.
16 rebels were killed in Saada earlier this week, according to state media reports; the dead reportedly included a number of "leaders," but the government hasn't identified any of them. The army says it also destroyed a vehicle carrying ammunition to the rebels (عربي), and seized several farms which were being used as rebel hideouts.
At least 20 people have been killed in Saada province in fighting between the Huthi rebels and the Yemeni army over the last 24 hours. Saudi Arabia says it is no longer receiving fire from "Huthi snipers" -- a mildly encouraging sign for the Huthi-Saudi cease-fire -- but the Yemeni army is still fighting heavily.
Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh is moving the goalposts.
Saleh rejected the proposed cease-fire from the Huthi rebels, according to Yemen's state-run SABA news service (عربي). Abdul Malik al-Huthi, the rebel leader, agreed to the five cease-fire conditions previously established by Saleh's government -- but now Saleh says there is a sixth: The rebels must return Saudi Arabian hostages and vow not to attack Saudi territory.
Abdul Malik al-Huthi, the leader of the rebels, says he's willing to abide by the five conditions for a cease-fire established by the Yemeni government.
But don't get excited. This is, by my (unofficial) count, either the third or fourth time the Huthis have made such an offer. It's the second in just four weeks: The Huthis said on Jan. 4 that they were willing to immediately launch a dialogue with the government.
Obviously none of those prior offers have led to a cease-fire. And this one seems destined for the same fate: There's no evidence the rebels coordinated with the Yemeni government, and a one-sided offer to restart talks doesn't mean much. Huthi's offer also depends on the Yemeni army halting its operations; that seems unlikely, since we're still seeing near-daily reports of army operations in Saada province.
The five conditions, by the way, are the removal of all roadblocks; the surrender of remote mountain bases in Saada; a withdrawal from local government buildings; the return of all seized military equipment; and the release of all kidnapped civilians and captured soldiers.
(Updated below) The U.S. Defense Department is considering a counterterrorism fund (عربي) for Yemen, modeled off a similar fund for Pakistan.
The Pakistani fund, known as the Coalition Support Fund, reimburses the Pakistani government for its support of U.S. counterterrorism activities. The U.S. has provided about $7.6 billion under the CSF since 2002. Yemen's fund would be similar: The army and security services would receive annual payments for operations against al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula.
The indispensable Angry Arab, who never needs an excuse to jab at the House of Saud, looks at the tenuous Saudi-Huthi cease-fire and takes a shot at Saudi defense minister Prince Khaled bin Sultan:
I often read in his mouthpiece, Al-Hayat, that he is sought after by military colleges around the world to give lectures on military strategy. I mean, sure a band of Hawthi rebels humiliated his US supplied, trained army, and sure he lost more than a 100 of his men, but look how he salutes his soldiers.
That particular critique might be a little unfair: asymmetrical warfare is hard! But he's certainly right that bin Sultan gets fawning coverage in Al-Hayat, and that the Saudi army -- which spent months carpet-bombing rebel positions -- did not exactly distinguish itself with its conduct in this war.
The Saudi government has accepted the truce (عربي) offered on Monday by Yemen's Huthi rebels -- though it's framing the cease-fire as a victory over the Huthis.
Abdul Malik al-Huthi, the leader of the rebels, said his forces were withdrawing from Saudi territory. But Prince Khaled bin Sultan, Saudi Arabia's deputy defense minister, said today that the Huthis were "forced out" because the army has "achieved a clear victory" over the rebels.
"We cleansed the area ... Withdrawal was not an option for them," he said.
Both sides are clearly trying to save face: The Huthis say the withdrawal was a benevolent decision aimed at avoiding more civilian casualties; the Saudis insist it was a military victory.
In any event, bin Sultan said Saudi Arabia would not engage in negotiations with the rebels, but that his army would respect the cease-fire as long as "Huthi infiltrators" stop slipping across the border.
The Saudi government is expected to announce a decision today on the proposed cease-fire with Yemen's Huthi rebels.
The rebels have already withdrawn completely from positions in Saudi Arabia, according to a statement from Abdul Malik al-Huthi, the group's leader. Now we wait to see if Saudi Arabia reciprocates: The rebels were clear that they will resume hostilities unless Saudi Arabia agrees to (and implements) a truce.
Abdul Malik al-Huthi, the leader of Yemen's Huthi rebels, has reportedly announced a cease-fire with Saudi Arabia, according to the Saudi-owned Al-Arabiya (عربي).
The rebels reportedly agreed to stop fighting the Saudi army, and to withdraw completely from Saudi territory. The army and the Huthis have traded control of a number of villages and border regions in recent months, particularly around the area of Jebel Dokhan.
