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This was an unintentionally funny exchange from Al-Sharq Al-Awsat's interview with Iraqi vice president Tariq al-Hashemi (عربي):

Q: Which of the coalitions is closest to you in forming the government?

Hashemi: It is a coalition which is committed to the constitution and to the rules of democratic behavior. [...]

Q: So Iraqiyya is not close to any coalition?

The interviewer was clearly just trying to press him on an evasive answer, but given the events of the last three months, the question seems somewhat appropriate. Hashemi goes on to say that Iraqiyya will not take part in the goverment if it's excluded -- a fairly serious threat I can't recall Iraqiyya having made before.

Of course, whether or not they follow through is another story: We've heard a lot of rhetoric since March 7, and most of it is just political posturing.

In any event, should make for a fun time this afternoon when Nouri al-Maliki and Iyad Allawi hold their second post-election meeting.

Iraqiyya TV (no relation to the Iraqiyya list!) ran a "breaking news" headline on Thursday night announcing an official merger between Nouri al-Maliki's State of Law coalition and the Iraqi National Alliance Shi'ite bloc.

Not too exciting, right? The State of Law-INA merger was unofficially announced more than a month ago, and the new governing coalition still hasn't picked a prime minister. They did pick a name (عربي), the National Alliance, but otherwise there's nothing new in this announcement.

This is a guest post from Wladimir van Wilgenburg, an analyst for the Jamestown Foundation. His main expertise is the situation of Kurds in the Middle-East. Wilgenburg is also an editor of the Kurdish newspaper Rudaw, based in Erbil.

It seems increasingly certain that Iyad Allawi's Iraqiyya alliance will be squeezed out of the next Iraqi government. Wilgenburg explains one of the main reasons Iraqiyya is sidelined: tensions between the Kurdish parties and some of Allawi's coalition partners.

The Kurds are often branded as potential kingmakers in Iraq, and have to decide which list they will support: the largely Sunni-supported Iraqi National Movement (Iraqiyya) of former prime minister Iyad Allawi, or the State of Law coalition headed by Shi'ite prime minister Nouri al-Maliki.

Although the Kurds have good relations with Allawi, they have problems with some partners of the Iraqiyya list in Mosul, which contest Kurdish claims to disputed regions. Allawi's list seems to be the biggest challenge to Kurdish territorial claims in Mosul and Kirkuk. Therefore it is more likely that they will support a Shiite alliance.

The former Kurdish PM Nechirvan Barzani outlined the Kurdish position towards Iraqiyya pretty clear. "Unfortunately, the Iraqiyya list involves figures who have made their political mission against Kurdish people, and refuse to acknowledge gained Kurdish achievements."

Interesting report in Al-Rafidayn this morning, which speculates that Moqtada al-Sadr is dropping his opposition (عربي) to Nouri al-Maliki's reappointment as prime minister. (Well, sort of.)

Amir al-Kanani, a senior member of the Sadrist movement, told the newspaper that the Sadrists have no "red lines" on the next prime minister. He said the main concern is that State of Law and the Iraqi National Alliance both adhere to the agreed-upon mechanism for appointing the next PM.

OK, I give up. Remember about 48 hours ago, when State of Law and the Iraqi National Alliance announced a coalition?

Well, according to Al-Rafidayn, there's a new narrative: A State of Law/Iraqiyya merger, to be announced within the next few days (عربي).

Attribution is (needless to say) quite vague, an unnamed source who's involved with the talks between the two blocs. Under the terms of the agreement, Nouri al-Maliki would keep his job as prime minister, and Iyad Allawi would take over as president -- except he would also control the military.

I haven't seen this reported anywhere else; other Iraqi newspapers are still talking about the State of Law/INA merger (عربي). If the report is true, the merger could obviously fall apart at any moment, not least because it's unconstitutional: The prime minister is currently designated as the commander-in-chief, not the president.

If I had to speculate, I'd say this is a leak from someone in Allawi's camp. The State of Law/INA merger isn't final yet -- they haven't selected a prime minister -- and Iraqiyya knows Maliki is unhappy that he will almost certainly lose his job as PM. Perhaps this is Allawi's way of reminding Maliki he could keep his job in exchange for Iraqiyya playing a role in the government.

I'll be skeptical of this until the new government is actually seated, but the State of Law alliance announced today that it has agreed to form a coalition (عربي) with the Iraqi National Alliance, the Shi'ite bloc led by the Sadrist movement and the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq.

52 parliamentary candidates in Iraq, including two who won seats in last month's election, have been retroactively disqualified from the ballot by the judicial panel reviewing de-Ba'athification decisions.

Both of the winning candidates came from the Iraqiyya bloc, which holds a two-seat lead over prime minister Nouri al-Maliki's State of Law coalition. The BBC reports that Iraqiyya will replace the disqualified candidates with other people, preserving the balance of power in parliament (though not the will of the voters who elected those candidates).

(Updated below) Aside from the horrific violence in Baghdad and Anbar, the big story in Iraqi newspapers this morning is a rumored reconciliation meeting between prime minister Nouri al-Maliki and Iyad Allawi, the leader of the Iraqiyya coalition. There's one report in Al-Sabaah (عربي), another in Al-Rafidayn (عربي); a short item in Aswat al-Iraq; and so on.

Both men have reportedly agreed to the meeting, in principle, and just need to pick a time.

I was out of town all weekend -- no laptop or anything! -- and apparently picked the worst possible weekend for a trip, because three major Iraq stories broke in the span of 72 hours. So here's my belated attempt to play catch-up -- and an effort to push forward each story based on today's reporting/analysis.

Al-Sharq Al-Awsat and Al-Rafidayn (عربي) both report today that the Iraqi National Alliance and the State of Law coalition are close to a merger. That would put the combined bloc within two seats of the 163-seat majority needed to form a government.

Ali al-Adeeb, a senior member of Maliki's Dawa party, said both sides are "putting the finishing touches" on a merger, and promised an official announcement within the next few weeks.

Ibrahim al-Jaafari won the Sadrist movement's referendum (عربي) on the next prime minister, with 24 percent of the roughly 1.5 million ballots cast.

Jaafar al-Sadr, the son of Dawa party founder Mohammad Baqir al-Sadr, placed second with 23 percent of the vote; Qusay as-Suhail, a Sadrist MP (and rumored candidate for the PM job), placed third with 17 percent.

Still far too early to say what will happen with the next Iraqi government; everyone is meeting with everyone else, and nobody wants to tip their hand yet (this Marc Lynch tweet sums it up well). But here's your latest roundup of election news, which includes meetings in Riyadh and possibly Tehran and some speculation about the future of State of Law.

The horse-trading continues in Iraq: Prime minister Nouri al-Maliki is trying to cement a possible merger with the Iraqi National Alliance, but the Sadrist movement seems reluctant; and Iyad Allawi is trying to attract Kurdish support, but the Kurds seem reluctant.

There's a lot to keep track of, so we've rounded up a bullet-point list of the latest political maneuverings after the jump. We'll do similar lists in the coming days as they're needed.

Iyad Allawi's Iraqiyya coalition may have won the most seats in this month's Iraqi election -- but increasingly it looks like prime minister Nouri al-Maliki's State of Law coalition will form the next government, even if Maliki himself loses his job.

Iraq's political parties spent the weekend in feverish negotiations, which seem to be running along two separate tracks. The first is being conducted in Tehran and Najaf, where Maliki's bloc is meeting with the Iraqi National Alliance; a merger between those two would put Maliki within six seats of holding a majority in parliament.

I'm headed out of town soon, but a couple of quick thoughts about yesterday's Iraqi election results (which the New York Times illustrates here).

Most pre-election analysis suggested the Kurdish parties would be kingmakers. They still play an important role -- I'm sure both Iyad Allawi and Nouri al-Maliki are courting them intensely -- but equally important will be the relationship between State of Law and the Iraqi National Alliance, and the internal dynamics of the INA itself.

If State of Law and the Iraqi National Alliance join forces (as has been rumored), they will control almost exactly half of parliament. That means Iraqiyya needs to get everyone else on board -- the Kurdish parties, plus smaller blocs like Tawafuq and Iraqi Unity -- in order to form a government.

We're waiting on detailed final results from Iraq's Independent High Electoral Commission -- we'll update this thread when we get them -- but the commission just announced that Iyad Allawi's Iraqiyya coalition took first place in the election, with 91 seats; prime minister Nouri al-Maliki's State of Law coalition came in second, with 89.

Update, 2:35 p.m.: Right on cue, here's Maliki crying fraud (عربي); he says State of Law will still form the government and that today's results "are not final" (IHEC might beg to differ).

Update, 2:43 p.m.: More numbers, via Iraq's Al-Rafidayn newspaper: The Iraqi National Allliance received 71 seats (عربي) -- no word on how those seats break down within the alliance -- and the Kurdistan Alliance, the largest Kurdish bloc, received 43.

Update, 2:50 p.m.: The Iraqi Unity bloc (interior minister Jawad al-Bolani and Sheikh Ahmed Abu Risha) received four seats, including just one in Anbar province; the Gorran movement, the Kurdistan Alliance's main rival, won 8; and the Tawafuq bloc won 6.

Senior members of Iraqi prime minister Nouri al-Maliki's State of Law coalition are warning of widespread Shi'ite anger -- and even hinting at outright violence -- unless election officials agree to a recount.

Sami Askari, a senior adviser to Maliki, called the Independent High Electoral Commission a "U.N. puppet," and accused the CIA of orchestrating Iraqiyya's apparent narrow victory over State of Law. He warned that Shi'ite southern Iraq might stop sending oil to Baghdad, and made a veiled threat about sectarian violence:

As usual: The latest numbers are here. The Independent High Electoral Commission says 92 percent of the votes (عربي) have been counted nationwide; only two provinces, Kirkuk and Salaheddin, are below the 90 percent mark.

Iraqiyya has pulled ahead of State of Law by the narrowest of margins: Both coalitions have around 2.5 million votes, and Iraqiyya leads by just 7,928.

Iyad Allawi's coalition was helped by a strong showing in Baghdad in the latest batch of numbers: Iraqiyya was 70,000 votes behind State of Law in the previous round of results; today's release closed the gap to 50,000 votes.

Allawi, who apparently expects to win, told Al-Jazeera he would not rush to form a new government (عربي; h/t Marc Lynch). He also hinted at working with current Iraqi prime minister Nouri al-Maliki, as long as the latter wants to pursue a non-sectarian coalition.

Sorry, guys; I know fully half of our posts this week have been "new Iraqi election results!" posts. We're almost done, though: About 90 percent of the vote has been tallied. The latest results, as always, are here.

State of Law leads the national tally, but less than 30,000 40,000 votes separate Nouri al-Maliki's coalition from Iraqiyya. Baghdad remains close; it looks like State of Law will pick up two or three more seats in the capital than Iraqiyya. The Shi'ite vote remains mostly split in southern Iraq, except for Basra, where State of Law has emerged as a clear winner over the Iraqi National Alliance.

Oh, and Anbar continues to be a rout for Iraqiyya; the second-place Tawafuq (Change) bloc has pulled even further ahead of Abu Risha's Iraqi Unity coalition.

Another morning, another batch of Iraqi election results. Roughly 80 percent of the ballots have been counted, and Iyad Allawi's Iraqiyya coalition now has a narrow nationwide lead (9,000 votes) over Nouri al-Maliki's State of Law.

The race in Baghdad continues to tighten up. Yesterday's results from the capital put State of Law at 518,203, and Iraqiyya at 453,028, a 13 percent gap. Today, State of Law has 663,311 votes, compared to 594,053 for Iraqiyya -- a 10 percent difference.

As usual, full results are here.