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Yedioth Ahronoth quotes a bunch of unnamed "commentators" -- every journalist's best friend! -- who think Netanyahu's coalition government is about to collapse. So does an unnamed minister from the Labor party, who thinks Bibi will have to replace right-wing parties like Shas and Yisrael Beiteinu with Kadima.

Yedioth Ahronoth reports on a new political poll this morning and concludes that the Likud party in Israel is losing support. But the poll numbers don't quite support that conclusion.

The survey asked voters who they would choose in a Knesset election held today. Kadima fared the best: It would increase its representation from 28 seats to 32. That would place Tzipi Livni's party three seats ahead of Likud.

The conventional wisdom in Washington (and, perhaps, Jerusalem) is that President Obama wants to blow up Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu's governing coalition. The current governing bloc includes Likud and a smattering of right-wing parties (plus Labor, but it's clearly a junior partner); Obama supposedly wants to replace the right-wing parties with Tzipi Livni's Kadima movement.

I can't tell you whether or not this is Obama's explicit goal. But it's a guaranteed outcome if Obama decides to press Netanyahu on stopping new construction in East Jerusalem -- because the rightists in Netanyahu's coalition will never accept such a freeze.

One thing we haven't really discussed, amidst the latest round of rumors about a possible deal for Gilad Shalit's release, is the political ramifications of such a deal within Israel.

Shalit's plight has taken an outsized role in Israeli politics and public life, so his release, by itself, would give Netanyahu a big political boost. But there's a potential complication: If yesterday's press reports are accurate, Netanyahu will be releasing hundreds of Palestinian militants to secure Shalit's release.