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The Horn of Africa

Turning the tide in Somalia? Not yet.

Alex Thurston over at the excellent Sahel Blog flags Simon Tisdall's weirdly optimistic comment about the "turning tide" in Somalia.

As Alex notes, there's not much evidence to back up Tisdall's claim. The humanitarian situation is dire: More than half of Somalia's population relies on food aid, and more than half of Somalia's aid doesn't reach its intended recipients, according to a new United Nations Security Council report. Shabab still controls most of the country. President Sharif Ahmed's Transitional Federal Government is broke and poorly-equipped. (Recent US, EU and African Union training efforts are slowly reversing that, though much of the aid they've promised hasn't materialized yet.)

The Horn of Africa

Tensions mounting in Mogadishu (and Nairobi)

We haven't checked in on Somalia in a few weeks, but it's worth a post: Tensions are rising between Somalia and Kenya, and also between two rival militias within the country.

Earlier this week, authorities in Kenya arrested roughly 300 Somalis living in Nairobi. Police say the group was involved in a Shabab-sponsored protest in the capital. The Kenyan government also warned Somali MPs to "stop hiding" in Nairobi and return to their own country.

Kenyan authorities reportedly arrested two officials from the autonomous Somali state of Puntland, though that report can't be confirmed.

The Horn of Africa

The New Yorker on Somalia's Sharif Ahmed

Jon Lee Anderson has an article about Somalia -- specifically, about Somali president Sharif Ahmed -- in this week's New Yorker (sub. required).

As a profile of Ahmed, it's decent, though if you're familiar with Somalia's recent history much of it will be a rehash. Anderson's central question is whether Ahmed is a "viable ally" for the United States; he explores Ahmed's history with the Islamic Courts Union, and his transition from American target to American ally.

The Horn of Africa

Al-Shabab: Don't blame us!

Al-Shabab has denied responsibility for yesterday's deadly bombing in Mogadishu. Instead, they blame it on a government conspiracy:

"We declare that al-Shabab did not mastermind that explosion ... It is not in the nature of al-Shabab to target innocent people," [al-Shabab spokesman Sheikh Ali Mohamud] Rage was quoted by the Reuters news agency as saying. "We know that some so-called government officials left the scene of the explosion just minutes before the attack. That is why it is clear that they were behind the killing."

Reuters has more details on Rage's conspiracy theory. Al-Shabab seems to recognize that yesterday's attack was a public-relations disaster: Whatever Somalis might think of the Sharif government, there's no popular support for blowing up college graduation ceremonies. So al-Shabab is trying to distance itself from the attack -- much like the TTP does when its attacks in Pakistan kill civilians.

The Horn of Africa

Seeding al-Shabab in Somalia

Adam Serwer posted a short item on the American Prospect's blog this morning, calling the U.S.-backed Ethiopian invasion of Somalia in 2006, and the subsequent deposal of the Islamic Courts Union (ICU), a "national security disaster."

The removal of the ICU empowered its radical wing, Al Shabaab, led by the al-Qaeda-trained Aden Hashi Ayrow, which has now taken over terrorizing the country with suicide bombings, assassinations, and the killing of civilians. The ICU weren't what you might call "good guys" by any means, but they also weren't as bad as Al Shabaab.

That prompted a long and somewhat disjointed Twitter argument (redundant, I know) between Serwer, the Washington Times' Eli Lake, and a few other interlocutors (including us).

Somalia is a bit outside our normal coverage area, but some interesting points came up in the discussion, and I wanted to expand on them (in more than 140 characters).

Drone barrage reportedly targets Hafiz Gul Bahadur

Downplaying human rights to buy "cooperation"

Miliband urges Karzai to accelerate reintegration

Al-Akhbar: Our weekly brief

Peace Processing

Biden arrives in Israel amid serious Palestinian doubts

Vice President Joe Biden and his wife arrived in Israel on Monday.
As Joe Biden lands in Israel, the Israeli government -- obviously keen to demonstrate that it's serious about restarting peace talks -- announced Monday that it will violate its West Bank settlement freeze and build 112 new homes in Beitar Illit, a settlement west of Bethlehem.

Iraqi Elections

Polls close in Iraq; media reports suggest strong turnout, relative calm

An Iraqi man on a bicycle displays his ink-stained finger after voting in Baghdad on March 7, 2010. (Photo: AP)
A handful of insurgent attacks around the country killed two dozen people, but Iraqi security forces seemed generally confident; the vehicle ban in Baghdad, scheduled to last all day, was lifted before noon. Anecdotal reports suggest a strong turnout across the country.

Iraqi Elections

Campaigning stops, voting starts; scattered violence in Baghdad, Mosul

Iraqi policemen show their ink-stained fingers after voting outside a polling station in Najaf, 100 miles south of Baghdad. (Photo: Reuters)
Iraq's campaign season wrapped up today, 48 hours ahead of the election, as soldiers and medical personnel voted early. Hundreds of thousands of soldiers and police will be on duty Sunday for the general election, when millions of Iraqis will vote at some 10,00 polling centers around the country (and abroad).