Sharif Ahmed - Tag Search

Alex Thurston posted earlier this week on the trend towards political fragmentation in Somalia:

The Transitional Federal Government looks unlikely to win a major victory in its assault on al Shabab, the TFG's alliance with pro-government militia Ahlu Sunna looks shaky, and the conflict between al Shabab and Hizbul Islam continues.

The Shabab militia came to power promising to transcend this kind of factionalism. It increasingly looks like just another faction, though, another militia in a country dotted with them.

Alex Thurston over at the excellent Sahel Blog flags Simon Tisdall's weirdly optimistic comment about the "turning tide" in Somalia.

As Alex notes, there's not much evidence to back up Tisdall's claim. The humanitarian situation is dire: More than half of Somalia's population relies on food aid, and more than half of Somalia's aid doesn't reach its intended recipients, according to a new United Nations Security Council report. Shabab still controls most of the country. President Sharif Ahmed's Transitional Federal Government is broke and poorly-equipped. (Recent US, EU and African Union training efforts are slowly reversing that, though much of the aid they've promised hasn't materialized yet.)

We haven't checked in on Somalia in a few weeks, but it's worth a post: Tensions are rising between Somalia and Kenya, and also between two rival militias within the country.

Earlier this week, authorities in Kenya arrested roughly 300 Somalis living in Nairobi. Police say the group was involved in a Shabab-sponsored protest in the capital. The Kenyan government also warned Somali MPs to "stop hiding" in Nairobi and return to their own country.

Kenyan authorities reportedly arrested two officials from the autonomous Somali state of Puntland, though that report can't be confirmed.

Jon Lee Anderson has an article about Somalia -- specifically, about Somali president Sharif Ahmed -- in this week's New Yorker (sub. required).

As a profile of Ahmed, it's decent, though if you're familiar with Somalia's recent history much of it will be a rehash. Anderson's central question is whether Ahmed is a "viable ally" for the United States; he explores Ahmed's history with the Islamic Courts Union, and his transition from American target to American ally.

Al-Shabab has denied responsibility for yesterday's deadly bombing in Mogadishu. Instead, they blame it on a government conspiracy:

"We declare that al-Shabab did not mastermind that explosion ... It is not in the nature of al-Shabab to target innocent people," [al-Shabab spokesman Sheikh Ali Mohamud] Rage was quoted by the Reuters news agency as saying. "We know that some so-called government officials left the scene of the explosion just minutes before the attack. That is why it is clear that they were behind the killing."

Reuters has more details on Rage's conspiracy theory. Al-Shabab seems to recognize that yesterday's attack was a public-relations disaster: Whatever Somalis might think of the Sharif government, there's no popular support for blowing up college graduation ceremonies. So al-Shabab is trying to distance itself from the attack -- much like the TTP does when its attacks in Pakistan kill civilians.

Adam Serwer posted a short item on the American Prospect's blog this morning, calling the U.S.-backed Ethiopian invasion of Somalia in 2006, and the subsequent deposal of the Islamic Courts Union (ICU), a "national security disaster."

The removal of the ICU empowered its radical wing, Al Shabaab, led by the al-Qaeda-trained Aden Hashi Ayrow, which has now taken over terrorizing the country with suicide bombings, assassinations, and the killing of civilians. The ICU weren't what you might call "good guys" by any means, but they also weren't as bad as Al Shabaab.

That prompted a long and somewhat disjointed Twitter argument (redundant, I know) between Serwer, the Washington Times' Eli Lake, and a few other interlocutors (including us).

Somalia is a bit outside our normal coverage area, but some interesting points came up in the discussion, and I wanted to expand on them (in more than 140 characters).