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Peace Processing

Talking about direct talks: Netanyahu returns to the White House

Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu is in Washington today for a series of meetings at the White House. He'll hold one-on-one talks with US president Barack Obama before a "working lunch" with Obama, vice president Joseph Biden, and several other officials.

Obama's top priority during these talks will almost certainly be pushing for an extension to Israel's temporary West Bank settlement freeze, which is due to expire in September. The end of the freeze would forestall any possibility of direct talks between the Israelis ri the Palestinians.

"There has been a distinct improvement in the White House relationship with Israel since the last meeting" between Obama and Netanyahu on March 23, said Jonathan Spyer, a political scientist at Israel's Interdisciplinary Center Herzliya. "Obama will be looking for a payback," perhaps in the form of an extension to the settlement freeze, Spyer said.

But from Netanyahu's perspective, the domestic politics of extending the freeze are... difficult, to say the least. His administration has nothing to show for the current freeze: Israeli-Palestinian "proximity talks" have yielded little concrete progress, save for a rumored land swap proposal offered by Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas.

Peace Processing

Netanyahu freezes construction that wasn't supposed to start anyway

I was cautiously encouraged when I read that Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu had agreed to freeze new construction in Ramot Shlomo. PJ Crowley, the State Department spokesman, announced the decision this afternoon, and Netanyahu confirmed it tonight, according to Israeli media reports.

Sources close to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu responded to the American announcement later Sunday, confirming that the housing project intended for the Ramat Shlomo neighborhood would not be built in the coming two years.

Encouraging news, right? The approval of 1,600 new homes in Ramot Shlomo sparked an uproar when it was announced two months ago; Netanyahu would be making a meaningful concession by freezing that construction.

Peace Processing

Go go gadget proximity talks

Well, they've officially started. I'll spare you a long post on the subject -- I've written too much about proximity talks this year as it is -- but three quick points:

How long will the talks run? I've heard several different timeframes, but the most common number is four months -- that's how long Palestinian officials are willing to give the talks.

What will they discuss? Borders seem the most likely issue, but Benjamin Netanyahu wants to talk about interim borders, Mahmoud Abbas wants final borders, and neither man seems willing to budge. If they don't discuss borders, I really have no idea what will be on the agenda. Small confidence-building measures -- releasing prisoners, for example -- won't be enough to lead to direct talks.

Could they stall early? Absolutely. The most likely reason is more construction in East Jerusalem. Palestinian officials have been clear that they're counting on the U.S. to preempt any "surprises"; if there's another Ramot Shlomo-esque announcement, the talks are probably dead.

Finally, not to be the skunk at the garden party, but a question: Israel-PA talks are great, but what about Hamas? What about Gaza?

Peace Processing

Is anyone excited about proximity talks?

That's sort of a rhetorical question: They're not!

George Mitchell, the Obama administration's Middle East envoy, is back in the region meeting with Israeli and Palestinian officials. The proximity talks were supposed to start today, but they've been postponed until after a PLO executive committee meeting on Saturday.

Peace Processing

A direct push for indirect talks

The Obama administration is counting on a carefully-timed sequence of events to jump-start "proximity talks" between the Israeli government and the Palestinian Authority.

Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas will present a formal proposal for indirect talks when the Arab League's peace process committee meets on May 1. The Arab League already endorsed the talks early last month, but withdrew its support just over a week later after Israel approved new construction in Ramot Shlomo.

Peace Processing

Advantage, Netanyahu: The Ramot Shlomo spat, two weeks later

The U.S.-Israel spat is winding down. The White House insists there's no crisis in bilateral relations; George Mitchell is scheduled to arrive in Israel tomorrow; congressional leaders (with a few exceptions) say the public fighting should end. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will deliver a speech at the AIPAC conference on Monday morning, and her remarks will almost certainly mark the end of the Ramot Shlomo kerfuffle.

Who came out ahead? Ethan Bronner tries to answer that question in the New York Times, and points out that both sides are declaring victory -- Obama, because he received a few guarantees from Israel; Netanyahu, because he didn't have to compromise on Jerusalem.

Peace Processing

Fallout from Biden's visit: West Bank sealed off; proximity talks appear stalled

U.S. vice president Joe Biden is wrapping up his Middle East trip with a visit to Petra, in Jordan. A little sightseeing might be a welcome relief after a tumultuous week in Jerusalem and Ramallah.

The phrase "turning point" is grossly overused, but this week really feels like a watershed in the region -- and not at all in a good way. Few observers had high hopes for the Israeli-Palestinian proximity talks, but now even that modest dialogue appears off the table. The announcement that Israel is planning another 50,000 homes in East Jerusalem will poison any future talks: How can the Palestinian side negotiate when tens of thousands of illegal homes are considered non-negotiable?

Joe Biden's harsh condemnation of the new construction at Ramot Shlomo -- but the timing of the announcement still made the United States look weak and unwilling to confront Israel.

Peace Processing

As if 1,600 new homes weren't enough for one week...

We'd like to blog about Joe Biden's Tel Aviv speech, but the White House still hasn't e-mailed a transcript to reporters (perhaps because it was undergoing some last-minute revisions?).

News reports say Biden urged Israel and the Palestinians to begin proximity talks without delay. But they're already in doubt: The Arab League held an emergency meeting in Cairo last night (عربي), and decided to withdraw its support for the talks because of the new construction in Ramot Shlomo.

Peace Processing

Yishai: Sorry for the timing, not for the decision

Israel's interior minister, Eli Yishai, has apologized for the announcement of 1,600 new homes in East Jerusalem's Ramot Shlomo neighborhood while U.S. vice president Joe Biden is in Israel -- though not for the decision itself.

Peace Processing

The wrong time for a velvet glove in Israel

Evan added some details overnight to my post on Israel's latest West Bank settlement construction, including a statement from State Department spokesman PJ Crowley. State belatedly sent reporters a full transcript of Crowley's remarks -- and, as Evan said, it's pretty lukewarm stuff.

Peace Processing

Mitchell arrives in Ramallah amid doubts

President Obama's special envoy to the Middle East, George Mitchell, arrived in Ramallah last night to begin "pre-talks" to the "proximity talks" the United States hopes will occur between Israel and the Palestinian Authority, the National reports. You'll be hard pressed to find anyone who has much faith in their ultimate success.

Peace Processing

White House threatens to name names if talks collapse

My suspicion is that the Palestinian Authority views "proximity talks" as a test for the Obama administration's willingness to impose consequences on Israel. PA officials have hinted at using the talks to "reveal Israel's true intentions to the world."

And the administration seems to understand that dynamic: Ha'aretz reports this morning that Washington "will assign blame" if the talks fall apart.

Peace Processing

Arab League agrees to Israeli-Palestinian "proximity talks"

The Arab League -- meeting today in Cairo -- voted to endorse "proximity talks" between Israel and the Palestinian Authority. American mediators, presumably led by George Mitchell, will shuttle between Jerusalem and Ramallah.

Peace Processing

Abdel Bari Atwan: Fayyad's courage? What courage?

As a postscript to last week's, uh, post about Salam Fayyad's Herzliya speech, Abdel Bari Atwan has an absolutely savage column (عربي) in today's Al-Quds Al-Arabi. For Arabic speakers, the whole thing is worth a read -- it does a good job capturing the disconnect between the Palestinian Authority's official position on peace talks and the Palestinian public's opinion.

Peace Processing

Reports: PA close to accepting "proximity talks"

The Palestinian Authority either accepted George Mitchell's proposal for "proximity talks," or is close to accepting, according to Israeli and Arab news outlets.

Ha'aretz reports today that Mahmoud Abbas "agreed in principle" to the talks, according to unnamed Palestinian sources. The talks will reportedly resume later this month, with Mitchell ferrying messages between negotiating teams in separate rooms.

Peace Processing

Abbas considering indirect talks with Israel

Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas is considering George Mitchell's offer for "proximity talks" with Israel, and plans to issue a final response on Thursday, according to an interview with The Guardian.

B'Tselem: Settlements occupy 42 percent of West Bank

Ben-Eliezer makes "secret trip" to Turkey: Israeli TV

CENTCOM talking sense on Hamas and Hizballah

Al-Akhbar: Our weekly brief

The Afghan Surge

Obama's southern strategy

Gen. David Petraeus testifying on Capitol Hill. (Photo: Reuters)
The president's decision to nominate Gen. David Petraeus as the commander of US and NATO forces in Afghanistan won't mean a major change in strategy. But there are mounting reasons for pessimism about current policy, particularly the relentless focus on southern Afghanistan. The deployment of tens of thousands of additional troops to Kandahar and Helmand serves few NATO objectives.

Freedom Flotilla Killings

Anticlimax: How much did the flotilla raid really change regional politics?

A demonstration in London against the Israeli attack on the Gaza-bound flotilla. (Photo: AFP)
It has accelerated Israel's isolation from several of its neighbors and allies; it has sharpened divisions within Turkish domestic politics; it has deepened perceptions that the Obama administration as too close to Israel. And it seems to have had a remarkably minor impact on Palestinian domestic politics.

Nuclear Negotiations

U.N. Security Council passes new Iran sanctions, but will anything change?

The so-called P5+1 countries have threatened that their 'patience is running out' with regards to Iran's nuclear program.
Twelve of the Security Council's 15 members voted in favor of a fourth round of sanctions on Tuesday, but the new resolution reflected strong desires by China and Russia to avoid crippling the Islamic Republic's economy. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad quickly dismissed the sanctions as a "used handkerchief" that should be thrown away.