Omar Suleiman - Tag Search

We haven't written about a possible Gilad Shalit deal in, oh, two months, so I think we're long overdue for some speculation.

Reports today say Shalit could be released by the end of the week, in exchange for several hundred Palestinian prisoners. Israel reportedly agreed to free an extra 160 prisoners whose release had been previously vetoed. (That means they're probably militants.) The deal could happen as soon as Friday, the start of Eid al-Adha, according to reports.

Hamas officials are in Cairo today for a meeting with Omar Suleiman, the Egyptian intelligence chief, to discuss the deal.

Hamas has agreed, "in principle," to the Palestinian reconciliation deal proposed by Egypt.

The proposal doesn't exactly form a unity government; instead, it creates an "advisory committee" -- chaired by Mahmoud Abbas -- which will handle day-to-day governance in Gaza and the West Bank. The committee will be disbanded after Palestinian elections, which will likely take place in June.

Hamas leader Khaled Meshal is in Cairo today for talks with Omar Suleiman, the Egyptian intelligence chief. Presumably the talks will focus on Hamas-Fatah reconciliation: Fatah recently agreed to delay elections scheduled for January, and Hamas has yet to respond to that offer.

Suleiman and Meshal will probably also discuss Gilad Shalit. It's been about two weeks since the last report of an imminent deal (which never materialized), so we're about due for another one. Don't expect much real progress, considering all of the false alarms.

Evan and I have turned a bit skeptical about stories claiming an imminent deal to free Gilad Shalit -- ever since Al-Masry Al-Youm's first report on June 22. But maybe this one's the real deal.

Al-Sharq Al-Awsat reports (عربي) that Mubarak and Netanyahu are "on the verge" of an agreement for Shalit's release. They're scheduled to meet in Cairo tomorrow, and they will reportedly announce the deal after their meeting.

The deal comes after a lot of behind-the-scenes negotiating by Egyptian intelligence chief Omar Suleiman: He recently met with Khaled Meshaal, the head of Hamas' political wing, and Hagai Hadas, Netanyahu's envoy for the Shalit talks.

No word on the exact details of the deal, but presumably it's close to the one we've been hearing about for months.

In the category of "things I do not understand," Pope Shenouda III, the head of the Coptic church, has endorsed Gamal Mubarak for Egypt's next president -- even though Gamal is not officially running for office yet (because his dad has not officially announced that he isn't running in 2011).

The Los Angeles Times has details (h/t The Arabist):

"I wish and pray for God to prolong Hosni Mubarak's life, but the presidency issue has got nothing to do with succession," the pope said in an interview with Egyptian satellite channel ON TV. "Most Egyptians love Gamal Mubarak and they will vote for him ahead of any other candidate running against him in elections - that is if they find anyone to run against him."

We'll put aside Shenouda's questionable assertion that "most Egyptians love Gamal." I guess Shenouda is trying to ingratiate himself with the man he thinks will win the election -- but why so early?

Interesting side note: The first comment posted to the LAT article reads, in its entirety, "not gamal not muslim brothers we want Omar suleiman." That's the logo of the Omar Suleiman-for-president Web site we wrote about last month.

Foreign Policy rates the top Middle Eastern intelligence chiefs. Omar Suleiman comes in #1. Mossad's Meir Dagan has to settle for the #2 spot.

FP also speculates about whether Hosni Mubarak is grooming Suleiman to take over the presidency when he leaves office, a question that fascinates us to no end.

The Irish Times, of all places, has an article up saying that Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak intends to resign sometime soon, dissolve parliament and move up presidential elections scheduled for 2011.

Hosni Mubarak is 81, and not a healthy 81, either. Egypt is going to have to deal with presidential succession soon.

The issue is still basically off-limits; you can go to jail for suggesting Hosni won't live forever. But, as the New York Times reports, the Egyptian media are starting to write about it.

"The laws of life have brought the moment that can no longer be delayed, forcing us to discuss the issue of the alternative," wrote Hossam Abdel Baseer recently in an Egyptian opposition daily, Al Wafd.

The Egyptian government has arrested more than 100 Muslim Brotherhood members in the last two months (including seven last week). And there's talk that Mubarak will dissolve the parliament to replace it with a "friendlier" -- more compliant -- group of legislators.

Both of those developments suggest the ruling National Democratic Party thinks succession is an imminent issue.

I wrote a post on the subject last month. The big question is whether the NDP will try to elevate Gamal Mubarak (Hosni's son) or Omar Suleiman (Hosni's intelligence chief) as his successor. But then there are other questions: who will the army support? What will the Brotherhood do?

That's what Al-Masry Al-Youm is reporting after a meeting between Hosni Mubarak, Omar Suleiman, and Israeli defense minister Ehud Barak. Gilad Shalit is the Israeli soldier captured by Hamas in 2006. From the English version of Al-Masry Al-Youm's story:

They said an Egyptian security delegation will go to the Gaza Strip to discuss the security arrangements for bringing Shalit to Egypt. Once he is in Cairo, Israel would immediately release 150 Palestinian prisoners. And when Shalit arrives in Israel, it would release 450 more, followed by yet more prisoners, until the total number reaches 1000.

Hamas leader Khaled Meshal agreed to the plan during his recent visit to Cairo, according to the report.

The Arabist points to this bizarre blog pushing Omar Suleiman as the next president of Egypt. It makes an interesting jumping-off point for a discussion about Egypt's impending presidential transition. The blog is in Arabic, sorry -- I'll explain the important parts below.

A little background first. Omar Suleiman is Egypt's intelligence chief, a politically powerful figure whose name might be familiar if you follow regional news: he's a key mediator between Israel and Palestine. He met earlier this month with Hamas leader Khaled Meshal, in fact.

But he keeps a low profile within Egypt; I can't remember ever reading about a Suleiman speech or public appearance.

Hamas chief Khaled Meshal was in Egypt yesterday, meeting with Omar Suleiman, the chief of Egypt's intelligence services.

The intra-Palestinian violence has always hurt the Palestinian cause. It gives ammunition to critics who say Israel shouldn't make concessions to a government that's incapable of governing its own territory.

And I have to believe Suleiman delivered that message to Meshal. Hamas and Fatah have an opportunity to make real progress here, with Obama (seemingly) taking a firm approach to Israel. They'll miss that opportunity, though, if they can't stop killing each other.