Here's a good sign that the Egyptian government is a bit rattled by Mohamed ElBaradei: The state-run Al-Gomhuria, last seen proudly defending the Gaza barrier, published this cartoon today unveiling Hosni Mubarak's 2011 campaign promises (h/t Arabist).
As you can see, Egypt's future includes nuclear power and clean air. And giant stalks of wheat.
Mohamed ElBaradei issued his first statement in about a week yesterday: A list of proposed electoral reforms (عربي) which he says would ensure the integrity of Egypt's next presidential election -- and, presumably, which serve as prerequisites for an ElBaradei presidential run.
The list (bulleted after the jump) contains the changes ElBaradei has discussed for months in media interviews: end the emergency laws, lift restrictions on presidential candidates, etc. Taken together, they would be a significant overhaul of Egypt's electoral system.
A follow-up to my earlier post on the ElBaradei campaign and political reform: Issandr El Amrani was kind enough to respond via e-mail, and asked if I would post his response here. It's copied in full after the jump.
Issandr El Amrani has a thoughtful essay on his blog about the potential impact of a Mohamed ElBaradei presidential campaign in Egypt. I agree with most of his points -- particularly his observation that some of the ElBaradei criticism is "cynicism, a position that is hardly constructive and offers no solutions" -- but I want to highlight one item that concerns me.
Furthermore, ElBaradei's pseudo-candidacy may have already forced one alternative to a Gamal candidacy in 2011, if this report (عربي) that Hosni Mubarak is likely to run again in 2011 is to be believed.
This "Hosni will run again" talk is catching on: Al-Quds Al-Arabi this morning quotes unnamed Egyptian sources (عربي) who say Hosni will almost certainly run again next year, and will announce his decision publicly after parliamentary elections this autumn.
This is a guest post from Laura Kasinof, a freelance journalist based in Cairo.
A crowd of pro-democracy Egyptians gathered at Cairo International Airport this afternoon to welcome Mohamed ElBaradei -- former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, potential contender in Egypt's next presidential election, and the newest beacon of change for much of the country's liberal opposition movement -- to his home city.
ElBaradei's announcement last December that he will consider running for president in 2011 -- given the stipulation of a free and fair election -- sparked a popular movement in the country in support of an ElBaradei candidacy. In the days leading up his return to Cairo, no one knew whether or not the Egyptian government would allow the predicted "thousands" of ElBaradei supporters to rally together outside the airport in such a public affront to the Mubarak regime.
Seriously. Baradei's Now, Get Elected or ElBaradei Tryin', Take Me Down to Baradei City... I've got nothing.
In any event, in case you haven't heard, the former IAEA chief-slash-possible presidential candidate returns to Egypt for a visit on Friday -- and his countrymen are planning quite the welcome. The Egyptian opposition newspaper Ad-Dustour printed his flight information (عربي; he lands shortly after noon) and reports that thousands of people will gather at Cairo International Airport to welcome him. Supporters are hoping ElBaradei will deliver a quick speech at the airport.
Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak said in an interview that any candidate "who can bring benefit to Egypt and its people" can take part in the 2011 election.
Mubarak did the interview with the official Egyptian police magazine (in honor of Police Day). I can't find the interview online, but Al-Masry Al-Youm (عربي) and Al-Ahram (عربي) both summarize the highlights. The long-serving Mubarak pledged "free and fair" elections that reflect the will of voters.
Former IAEA director Mohamed ElBaradei did a five-and-a-half hour interview (!!) with el-Shorouk about democratic reform in Egypt, the country's mounting social and economic problems, and -- of course -- his possible bid for the presidency.
The interview is published in Arabic in three parts -- one, two, three -- and Boursa Exchange has translated the first part into English. The whole thing is an interesting read; ElBaradei has been teasing a presidential bid for months, but this is really the first time he's outlined his thoughts on Egyptian politics.
Amr Moussa -- the Arab League secretary-general and rumored 2011 Egyptian presidential candidate -- did a lengthy interview with Magdy el-Galad, the editor-in-chief of Al-Masry Al-Youm, in which he appears to rule out a run (عربي) for office.
The folks over at Meedan are collecting and translating reactions to Mohamed ElBaradei's possible presidential run. The reactions are predictable.
Mohammad Al-Saadani attacks ElBaradei (عربي) in the state-run Al-Ahram, saying he "strayed into an area where he doesn't belong." Ayman Nour, who undoubtedly feels threatened by ElBaradei, criticizes (عربي) his "vague position" and says ElBaradei likely won't run. Reformist papers are far more supportive.
Egypt will not return its ambassador to Algeria until the latter apologizes and pays compensation (عربي), legal affairs minister Mufid Shehab said today.
Shehab said Egypt is not interested in permanently cutting diplomatic ties with its North African neighbor, but demanded a public apology and compensation for injuries and for damage to Egyptian businesses. He also said his government has submitted a dossier to FIFA detailing violence against Egyptian citizens.
Former IAEA director Mohamed ElBaradei says he might run for president in his native Egypt, as reporters have been speculating for months.
ElBaradei says his decision hinges on whether there are "guarantees of fairness," and whether the 2011 elections are transparent and subject to U.N. monitoring and judicial review.
If he's serious about those requirements, don't get too excited about an ElBaradei candidacy...
(Updated below) The IAEA voted today 25-3 to censure Iran for defying a United Nations Security Council ban on uranium enrichment, and demanded that Iran cease further enrichment at its once-secret enrichment plant outside of Qom.
The full text of the resolution isn't yet available on the IAEA Web site; we'll post a link as soon as it goes up.
Today's vote is getting a lot of attention because both Russia and China voted in favor of the resolution. The Guardian suggests that it "could form the basis for a future binding resolution by the UN security council, which in turn could be used to impose sanctions." And Glyn Davies, the U.S. ambassador to the IAEA, said the resolution signaled that "the world's patience is running out."
There's a lot of confusion over whether Iran has formally rejected the IAEA draft proposal unveiled last month. News reports are careful not to use the word "rejected": Ha'aretz, for example, reports that world leaders "expressed disappointment on Friday that Iran had not accepted proposals."
The speculation apparently started on Monday with this Jerusalem Post story, which claimed that Iran "completely rejected" the IAEA draft and the Obama administration just doesn't want to admit it.
At the NIAC conference last week, Thomas Pickering said the U.S. should propose a compromise on Iran's nuclear program. The U.S. could ask Iran to ship all of its low-enriched uranium to a third country, like Turkey, which would then send the uranium out in tranches for further enrichment.
Michael Slackman tries to figure out why the Iranian government is haggling over the IAEA's draft agreement, and concludes that politics -- local politics -- are a big part of the answer.
Wondering what's in Iran's formal response to the IAEA's draft proposal, which it submitted to the agency this morning? So is the U.S. State Department!
"We need to hear a formal response from Iran," spokesman Ian Kelly said, hours after the International Atomic Energy Agency said it had received a response from Tehran without giving any details of its contents.
The IAEA, in other words, has been quite tight-lipped about the Iranian response. IAEA director Mohamed ElBaradei did describe it as an "initial response," suggesting that the Iranians are looking for further negotiations.
The Guardian reports today that the Iranian government sees the IAEA's draft deal "in a favorable light" but wants until Sunday to make a final decision.
Ha'aretz, on the other hand, reports that Iran's parliament speaker, Ali Larijani, says the West is trying to "cheat" Iran out of its right to enrich nuclear fuel.
"Westerners are insisting to go in a direction that speaks of cheating and are imposing some things on us," Larijani told ISNA news agency, according to AFP.
Bottom line: Iran will announce a final decision on the deal in the next few days; until then, anything you read is pure speculation. Nobody knows what the government will decide. (Needless to say, that didn't stop the Wall Street Journal from editorializing about it!)
The AP is reporting that Iran's government "failed to accept" the IAEA's draft proposal on uranium enrichment. AP sources its report to Iranian state media, but I can't find any mention of this story on Press TV's Web site, or on IRNA's (in English or Farsi).
Iran has agreed to the draft of a deal with the IAEA, which firms up the agreement-in-principle from Oct. 1.
Under the agreement, Iran would send 75 percent of its low-enriched nuclear fuel -- about 2,600 pounds -- to Russia for further enrichment. It's supposed to use the more highly-enriched fuel for a medical reactor.
