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Hariri's first visit to Washington as Prime Minister: Scuds, Hizballah and Iran

For basically as long as Lebanon has existed as a modern nation, foreign forces have found the country a useful proxy to assert their regional interests in the Middle East, so it's not exactly breaking from script for the Obama administration and the U.S. Congress to assert an extremely self-interested agenda during Prime Minister Saad Hariri's first visit to Washington since coming to power last summer. (Nor is it strange for America to be self-interested, but I digress.)

Hariri met with Obama on Monday; he spent Tuesday with Vice President Joe Biden and members of Congress, including House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Looking at the reporting that has emerged in the past two days, those meetings have been dominated by topics of American concern: the alleged transfer of Scud missiles from Syria to Hizballah, the disarming of Hizballah, and Lebanon's role in the U.S.-led effort to sanction Iran. Shelved, for the most part: Discussion of America's mired attempt to kick-start Israeli-Palestinian peace.

Sectarianism in Lebanon

Nobody puts Berri in the corner

Abolishing sectarianism in Lebanon: It's an attractive and healthy idea with next to zero chance of getting approved, at least for now. But that doesn't stop the concept from bouncing around in Lebanese politics every once in a while, and Nabih Berri's recent campaign is only the latest incarnation.

As far as I can tell, Berri, the Shia speaker of Lebanon's Parliament, announced his new push in a press conference more than a week ago. That prompted a flurry of criticism, but Berri is sticking by his guns.

Another incoherent anti-Hizballah argument

Andrew Exum returned from semi-retirement on Tuesday to pan Hizballah's new policy platform for its close-mindedness. Today, I found that Michael Totten has also re-posted some push back, courtesy of the Israel-based Global Research in International Affairs Center.

(Side note: Totten is really starting to grate on me. Exhibit A: This obnoxious post on Gaza.)

The GLORIA piece, written by senior research fellow Jonathan Spyer, doesn't really have a thesis - it's mostly a lot of vague, threatening rumblings. Spyer seems intent on making us all afraid that Hizballah is gaining power. But there are enough flaws in his short essay to render the argument highly unconvincing.

Lebanese parliament approves Hariri's cabinet

Not a huge surprise here, but figured we needed to note it: All but six of Lebanon's 128 elected lawmakers voted today to approve Prime Minister Saad Hariri's 30-member cabinet, which includes two representatives from Hizballah.

The vote means that Lebanon's government has given de facto approval to Hizballah keeping its weapons, but nobody really expected otherwise. And it's a wise move: Hizballah seems to be headed down a political track now, and trying to take away their weapons could provoke them. The benefits outweigh the negatives.

Al-Jazeera notes that the approval sets the stage for a Hariri visit to Damascus to meet with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Hariri has proved himself politically adroit in 2009, but I imagine that's gonna be an awkward handshake: "Hello. My name is Saad Hariri. You killed my father. Prepare to die."

Tea with Hizballah?

The last time Hizballah held a press conference to announce a mission statement was in February 1985, in the heat of one of Lebanon's many internecine conflicts. The rhetoric bursted with references to Islamic law and fiery statements of resistance. On Monday, Hizballah summoned the press once again, and the new agenda couldn't have been more different.

Gone were the references to sharia and calls for Israel's destruction, replaced with conciliatory tones and appeals to democratic freedoms. A day later, British Foreign Secretary David Miliband told the Lebanese Daily Star that his government was willing to engage Hizballah.

Post-Election Lebanon

Lebanon Gets a Cabinet

Update #5 (6:14 p.m. EST): The New York Times' Robert Worth, reporting from Beirut, has a short piece up on the cabinet formation, quoting Elias Muhanna. He expresses some confusion at why it took so long to form a cabinet, given that the basic formula was put in place over the summer. I trust that Worth, a skilled reporter stationed smack dab in the middle of the action, will be able to answer his own questions at some point.

Update #4 (3:25 p.m. EST): Well, it's going to be a fun week in Lebanon. Naharnet reports that the Maronite Christian Phalange Party is so upset with Hariri's cabinet that they will ask their one minister, Salim al-Sayyagh, who holds the Social Affairs portfolio, to resign. Naharnet also says that Michel Faraon, an apparent last-minute addition to March 14's list, has threatened to resign.

When the ophthalmologist becomes king

In Pity the Nation, Robert Fisk's epic tome about the formation and disintegration of Lebanon, Fisk recalls reading a faded 1950s newspaper story in which a European visitor writes of being wowed by the typical allures of the "Switzerland of the Middle East," while he glosses over a deadly anti-government protest - the beginning of Lebanon's first civil war - as the birth pangs of a young democracy.

National Geographic writer Don Belt, who has penned a knowing portrait of Syria for the magazine's November issue, seems determined to avoid missing such a historical boat. His wide-ranging story about the precariously perched Bashar al-Assad regime has impressed even Syria News Wire - never happy with carpetbagging foreign correspondents - which has called it "the best article on Syria in a decade."

Blogging the Arab Human Development Report

Part Two: Desertification and Carbon Dioxide

This entry is part of an ongoing series, Blogging the Arab Human Development Report.

In today's edition, we move past definitions and start getting into the good stuff - figuring out exactly how screwed the Arab world really is. First up in the cavalcade of depressing facts: Chapter Two of the Arab Human Development Report, which focuses on environmental threats to human security in the region.

First, a brief reminder about the 2009 AHDR: It's all about "human security." We covered the definition of that term in Part One. By approaching the Arab world from the point of view of human security - the problems confronting everyday citizens, rather than the state as a whole - the authors hope to address the roots of a wealth of problems in today's globalized world. Now, let's get started.

Michael Totten interviews Eli Khoury and nary a disagreement to be found

There's a rule that discerning news readers of all stripes should keep in mind: Always be skeptical when a journalist interviews another journalist, because (to be crude) it's probably going to end up something like this (and I'm not saying I'd be any different, for the record).

Eli Khoury isn't exactly a journalist, but as the publisher of the liberal, pro-West NOW Lebanon, he's close enough. His like-minded interviewer in this case - Michael Totten. Qifa Nabki already ripped apart the portion of the interview where Khoury insists that Maronites aren't Arabs, but the fun doesn't end there. While I agree with much that they have to say, the interview is just a little too sychophantic for my tastes.

Blogging the Arab Human Development Report

The 2009 AHDR, Part One: Defining 'Human Security'

This entry is part of an ongoing series, Blogging the Arab Human Development Report.

In the grand tradition of blogging everything that comes our way, the Majlis is going to wade through the 207-page 2009 Arab Human Development Report and give you chapter-by-chapter analysis. As with Gregg's ongoing blogging of the Goldstone Report, I hope our AHDR reporting can turn this behemoth into an easily digestible and interesting read for all of you.

I skipped the 15-page report summary - we'll get to everything they cover there in more detail - so let's dive right into Chapter One: "Applying the concept of human security in Arab countries."

Lebanese Cabinet Saga

Text of Saad Hariri's resignation speech

Hariri read the following statement after meeting with Lebanese President Michel Suleiman in Beiteddine, according to Hariri's Web site:

I held with the President a last consultation meeting regarding the fate of the governmental formula, and I noted that some have no intention to move forward and put an end to the deadlock reached in light of the insurmountable conditions.

Qifa Nabki heads back to Cambridge

It is with a heavy heart that we pass on the news that Elias Muhanna, otherwise known as the writer of Qifa Nabki, is packing up and leaving Beirut, destined for the cloisters of Harvard University. He has a PhD in Near Eastern Studies to attend to, after all.

As a (temporary) goodbye, Muhanna leaves us with a few links and instructs his readers to "send me an email when Lebanon has a government." I'll miss that Qifa Nabki snark.

But seriously - what's the deal with the Lebanese cabinet?

Hariri Investigation

Is Lebanon a pot waiting to boil?

Sometimes in journalism, there are stories that reporters and editors don't quite know what to do with. The Special Tribunal for Lebanon, charged with prosecuting those responsible for the 2005 assassination of Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, is one such story.

Middle East journalism lesson No. 13

Once you've read enough news stories about the Middle East - and in the last six-or-so years I think Gregg and I have reached that point - you start to discern the existence of certain tropes.

Whether they're born of unimaginative editors demanding a quick-turnaround story, lazy reporters going back to the well, or novice journalists who've studied the ways of their elders, the tropes never seem to disappear. So here, without further ado, is a great one, courtesy of Agence France-Presse:

From nudist beach parties and wild bashes hosted by the likes of Paris Hilton, to gay clubs, gambling and showgirls, Beirut is rapidly earning a reputation as the sin city of the Middle East.

Gay Life in the Middle East

To be gay in Beirut

Patrick Healy, a New York Times theater critic, has a semi-lengthy piece in Saturday's paper about Beirut's burgeoning gay culture - reportedly the friendliest in the Middle East.

Lebanon gets a cabinet, sort of

I promised to make a stab at a more in-depth analysis of Saad Hariri's post-election cabinet formation, so here goes.

First, I think we have to be impressed with the speed and alacrity of Hariri's political action. Two months have passed since his somewhat improbable victory over the "March 8" alliance between Shi'ite Hizballah and Michel Aoun's Christian Free Patriotic Movement. It's cause for a little celebration that Hizballah is pulling chairs up to the negotiating table and not pulling out their AK-47s and missile launchers. Last year, a "national unity government" came about in just seven weeks, but Hizballah eventually ceased its cooperation, and violence ensued.

That said, road blocks have recently begun to appear. Foremost among them is the defection of Walid Jumblatt, a longtime Druze political player in Lebanon and head of the Progressive Socialist Party. Jumblatt - an ally of Hariri's before and during the electon - is now distancing himself from the Sunni-influenced, anti-Syrian, anti-Iranian, pro-United States and pro-Saudi Arabian sentiments of Hariri's "March 14" alliance.

We'll get back to that in a second. For now, let's get back to how the cabinet is shaping up.

Post-Election Lebanon

Saad Hariri forms a cabinet - Lebanese peace finally achieved

The newly minted Prime Minister and leader of the victorious March 14 faction has formed a cabinet, solved the issue of Hizballah's "blocking third," and everyone will now move on to equally bitter process of assigning ministry leadership positions.

Even Hassan Nasrallah is happy.

How this all came to be is, like most Lebanese political scenarios, more like calculus than algebra, if that makes any sense. I'll try to dissect it a little better tomorrow with a cup of coffee in hand.

Saturday morning roundup

An air raid in northern Pakistan killed six people associated with a local Taliban leader, according to Al-Jazeera. The raid hit a house in Gariwam, a village in North Waziristan; the militants were affiliated with Baitullah Mehsud's deputy Hakim Ullah, according to the Pakistani military.

The attack was launched by Pakistani fighter jets, not U.S. drones, which have bombed dozens of targets in northwest Pakistan this year.

A roadside bomb near Fallujah wounded an Iraqi tribal leader and killed three other people. The bombing targeted Naeem Saleh al-Halbusi, a local leader of an Awakening Council that has worked with American troops over the last two years. al-Halbusi's son was one of the people killed in the blast.

Post-Election Lebanon

The Beqaa's unseen drug war

From The National (h/t Qifa Nakbi) comes a story that illuminates the Middle East you rarely hear about, where poor farmers deal dope and old school blood feuds seep into internationally syndicated crime. We're talking about Lebanon's Beqaa Valley, a place with a rich history of cannabis and opium production.

According to The National's Mitchell Prothero, a conflict between Lebanese security forces and some major Beqaa families with reputations for vengeance has been unfolding in recent months. Perhaps this is a symptom of a slow squeeze from the government, which has been chipping at the edges of Lebanon's drug economy for years.

"They are part international mafia and part traditional Arab tribal culture," [a military intelligence officer] said. "The Jafaar and Zoitar families never send anyone to join the police, the army or even Hizbollah, despite having always lived alongside the main bases of Hizbollah and the rural Shiite. They've never even accepted the rule of their own Shiite religious figures, let alone the authority of Beirut. But why should they? They make millions a year from hashish farming and no one from the government has ever helped them do anything else. They reject all outside authority and always have but we've never offered them any reason not to."

If the people have no other place to turn for economic gain, as Prothero reports, such a squeeze will predictably spur the old families into revolt.

Lebanon's budget deficit rises by $47.9 million

Lebanon's money troubles, surely on newly minted Prime Minister Saad Hariri's mind, continue to mount. As of May, the country's budget deficit had reached $1.41 billion, according to a report from the Finance Ministry released Wednesday and reported by the Daily Star.

That's a $47.9 million increase from the same time last year and represents a tick over 29 percent of Lebanon's overall spending (which had reached around $4.8 billion by May).

The Star reports that the country's state-owned and poorly run Lebanon Electricity company continues to be a budget leech, using nearly 5 percent of government spending.

Meanwhile, Lebanon's troublesome public debt, somewhere around $50 billion, is still lurking. Saad's father, Rafik, utilized loads of debt to rebuild a wartorn Lebanon. The country has the third highest debt-to-GDP ratio in the world (163.5 percent), and will have to be conflict-free for a while under Hariri's leadership if it hopes to repay its loans.

B'Tselem: Settlements occupy 42 percent of West Bank

Ben-Eliezer makes "secret trip" to Turkey: Israeli TV

CENTCOM talking sense on Hamas and Hizballah

Al-Akhbar: Our weekly brief

Peace Processing

Talking about direct talks: Netanyahu returns to the White House

Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu delivering a statement in Jerusalem on July 1, 2010. (Photo: AFP)
US president Barack Obama will use a White House meeting with Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu to push for an extended West Bank settlement freeze. If Netanyahu doesn't offer one - and the domestic politics are quite difficult for him - it's hard to see any possibility of direct talks with the Palestinian Authority later this year.

The Afghan Surge

Obama's southern strategy

Gen. David Petraeus testifying on Capitol Hill. (Photo: Reuters)
The president's decision to nominate Gen. David Petraeus as the commander of US and NATO forces in Afghanistan won't mean a major change in strategy. But there are mounting reasons for pessimism about current policy, particularly the relentless focus on southern Afghanistan. The deployment of tens of thousands of additional troops to Kandahar and Helmand serves few NATO objectives.

Freedom Flotilla Killings

Anticlimax: How much did the flotilla raid really change regional politics?

A demonstration in London against the Israeli attack on the Gaza-bound flotilla. (Photo: AFP)
It has accelerated Israel's isolation from several of its neighbors and allies; it has sharpened divisions within Turkish domestic politics; it has deepened perceptions that the Obama administration as too close to Israel. And it seems to have had a remarkably minor impact on Palestinian domestic politics.