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Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu is in Washington today for a series of meetings at the White House. He'll hold one-on-one talks with US president Barack Obama before a "working lunch" with Obama, vice president Joseph Biden, and several other officials.

Obama's top priority during these talks will almost certainly be pushing for an extension to Israel's temporary West Bank settlement freeze, which is due to expire in September. The end of the freeze would forestall any possibility of direct talks between the Israelis ri the Palestinians.

"There has been a distinct improvement in the White House relationship with Israel since the last meeting" between Obama and Netanyahu on March 23, said Jonathan Spyer, a political scientist at Israel's Interdisciplinary Center Herzliya. "Obama will be looking for a payback," perhaps in the form of an extension to the settlement freeze, Spyer said.

But from Netanyahu's perspective, the domestic politics of extending the freeze are... difficult, to say the least. His administration has nothing to show for the current freeze: Israeli-Palestinian "proximity talks" have yielded little concrete progress, save for a rumored land swap proposal offered by Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas.

Yedioth Ahronoth reports on a new political poll this morning and concludes that the Likud party in Israel is losing support. But the poll numbers don't quite support that conclusion.

The survey asked voters who they would choose in a Knesset election held today. Kadima fared the best: It would increase its representation from 28 seats to 32. That would place Tzipi Livni's party three seats ahead of Likud.

Israel's deputy foreign minister, Danny Ayalon, thinks that Israeli Arab villages should be annexed by a future Palestinian state, in exchange for Israeli settlements in East Jerusalem and the West Bank.

Ayalon proposed the "population swaps" during a wide-ranging interview in London (عربي) with Al-Sharq Al-Awsat. Ayalon essentially argues that Israel's Arabs aren't full citizens, because (unlike Jews and Druze men) they're not subject to mandatory military service. So he proposes redrawing Israel's future borders to make those Arab villages a part of Palestine -- a move which would eliminate a demographic pressure on the Jewish state.

One thing we haven't really discussed, amidst the latest round of rumors about a possible deal for Gilad Shalit's release, is the political ramifications of such a deal within Israel.

Shalit's plight has taken an outsized role in Israeli politics and public life, so his release, by itself, would give Netanyahu a big political boost. But there's a potential complication: If yesterday's press reports are accurate, Netanyahu will be releasing hundreds of Palestinian militants to secure Shalit's release.

Yossi Beiditz, the IDF's senior intelligence official, testified before a Knesset committee today. I think his analysis of Syria's foreign policy gets it largely right.

"In the estimate of the IDF Intelligence Branch, should Syria encounter a dilemma in the [region] after a deal with Israel, it will be willing to cool off its ties with Iran, Hezbollah, and the Palestinian groups," he said.

Bashar al-Assad is playing both sides right now, using his ongoing relationship with Iran to win concessions from the West and from other Arab states. But that state of affairs can't continue indefinitely; a regional conflict would force Assad to choose sides. And with Iran going through political unrest and economic turmoil, Assad would probably choose the West.