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Peace Processing

Fallout from Biden's visit: West Bank sealed off; proximity talks appear stalled

U.S. vice president Joe Biden is wrapping up his Middle East trip with a visit to Petra, in Jordan. A little sightseeing might be a welcome relief after a tumultuous week in Jerusalem and Ramallah.

The phrase "turning point" is grossly overused, but this week really feels like a watershed in the region -- and not at all in a good way. Few observers had high hopes for the Israeli-Palestinian proximity talks, but now even that modest dialogue appears off the table. The announcement that Israel is planning another 50,000 homes in East Jerusalem will poison any future talks: How can the Palestinian side negotiate when tens of thousands of illegal homes are considered non-negotiable?

Joe Biden's harsh condemnation of the new construction at Ramot Shlomo -- but the timing of the announcement still made the United States look weak and unwilling to confront Israel.

Nuclear Negotiations

Iran's nuclear program isn't about the Palestinians

I'm a big believer that solving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will have ripple effects throughout the region. It will increase the chances of peace between Israel and its other neighbors (Lebanon and Syria); it will take away a major terrorist recruiting tool, and a distraction that oppressive regimes use to avoid discussing their own problems.

But when I hear things like this, from Jordan's King Abdullah, I cringe.

Jordanian lawmakers lose their perqs

We here in the United States have grown accustomed to seeing powerful people get what they want, no matter whether they're responsible for gross malfeasance or instigating national catastrophes (see: bonus payouts to the same bankers who helped set up our financial meltdown).

So even if this wonderful photo comes from Jordan, it still warms the cockles of my heart to see influence stripped from the powerful so bluntly and quickly.

The Black Iris on Abdullah and parliament

I'll be honest: We here at The Majlis don't follow Jordanian politics all that closely. So we're not even going to attempt an "analysis" of King Abdullah's decision to dissolve parliament and call for early elections. Instead, we're just going to point you to Naseem Tarawnah's analysis over at The Black Iris, which does a good job putting Abdullah's move in context.

Jordan's King Abdullah dissolves parliament

Jordan has a reputation for being, well, boring. One of my Egyptian friends once described it as "that place you move when you want to have a family," which makes it sound like an Arab version of New Jersey, minus Bayonne.

But today, for the first time that I can recall, there's some unexpected news out of Jordan: King Abdullah issued a decree dissolving parliament and calling for general elections two years ahead of schedule.

The outgoing parliament has been criticized in recent months for not really doing anything -- most MPs are loyal to Abdullah. The decision to dissolve parliament seems to have come as a surprise, though.

I'm sure dozens of reporters in Amman, having written nothing for years except silly travel pieces (Amman has restaurants! Nice ones!), are now scrambling to locate the phone number for parliament.

One last shot at two states

Jordan's King Abdullah, in an interview with the Italian daily La Repubblica, says Obama has a narrow window of opportunity in which to achieve an Israeli-Palestinian peace deal.

"By the end of 2010, if Israel doesn't believe in the two-state solution, the possibility of a future Palestinian state will disappear because of geographic reasons: already the land is fragmented into cantons," Abdullah added.

Stephen Walt makes a similar point in a blog post about Obama's likely foreign policy failures. Walt thinks a growing number of people will abandon any hope for a two-state solution.

Lieberman digs in

Avigdor Lieberman is not optimistic about the prospect of peace talks with the Palestinians. (In other news, the sun rose in the east today.)

He told Israel Radio today that anyone optimistic about a peace deal "doesn't understand the situation and is spreading delusions."

And his office is apparently drafting new foreign policy for Israel that anticipates it will not reach a permanent peace deal. The document was drafted by Naor Gilon, a Foreign Ministry official, and passed to Avigdor Lieberman yesterday.

It's important to note that Lieberman does not set the agenda for peace talks with the Palestinians. That comes out of the prime minister's office. But the policy document circulating at the foreign ministry might offer a useful indication of the conventional wisdom in Jerusalem and Tel Aviv.

B'Tselem: Settlements occupy 42 percent of West Bank

Ben-Eliezer makes "secret trip" to Turkey: Israeli TV

CENTCOM talking sense on Hamas and Hizballah

Al-Akhbar: Our weekly brief

Peace Processing

Talking about direct talks: Netanyahu returns to the White House

Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu delivering a statement in Jerusalem on July 1, 2010. (Photo: AFP)
US president Barack Obama will use a White House meeting with Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu to push for an extended West Bank settlement freeze. If Netanyahu doesn't offer one - and the domestic politics are quite difficult for him - it's hard to see any possibility of direct talks with the Palestinian Authority later this year.

The Afghan Surge

Obama's southern strategy

Gen. David Petraeus testifying on Capitol Hill. (Photo: Reuters)
The president's decision to nominate Gen. David Petraeus as the commander of US and NATO forces in Afghanistan won't mean a major change in strategy. But there are mounting reasons for pessimism about current policy, particularly the relentless focus on southern Afghanistan. The deployment of tens of thousands of additional troops to Kandahar and Helmand serves few NATO objectives.

Freedom Flotilla Killings

Anticlimax: How much did the flotilla raid really change regional politics?

A demonstration in London against the Israeli attack on the Gaza-bound flotilla. (Photo: AFP)
It has accelerated Israel's isolation from several of its neighbors and allies; it has sharpened divisions within Turkish domestic politics; it has deepened perceptions that the Obama administration as too close to Israel. And it seems to have had a remarkably minor impact on Palestinian domestic politics.