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The Horn of Africa

Rumblings from Mogadishu

Sharif Sheik Ahmed, the embattled head of Somalia's Transitional Federal Government, is preparing to strike a blow against Shabab Islamist militants in Mogadishu, the country's capital, according to news reports over the weekend.

The offensive could lend Ahmed, the former head of the Islamic Courts Union but now the enemy of Shabab, some much-needed legitimacy, the Christian Science Monitor reported. Yet the planned attack has been marred by delays and demoralized, unpaid troops, according to the Washington Post. (Thanks to Alex Thurston's Sahel Blog, an outlet I've just now discovered, for flagging these links.)

The Horn of Africa

Seeding al-Shabab in Somalia

Adam Serwer posted a short item on the American Prospect's blog this morning, calling the U.S.-backed Ethiopian invasion of Somalia in 2006, and the subsequent deposal of the Islamic Courts Union (ICU), a "national security disaster."

The removal of the ICU empowered its radical wing, Al Shabaab, led by the al-Qaeda-trained Aden Hashi Ayrow, which has now taken over terrorizing the country with suicide bombings, assassinations, and the killing of civilians. The ICU weren't what you might call "good guys" by any means, but they also weren't as bad as Al Shabaab.

That prompted a long and somewhat disjointed Twitter argument (redundant, I know) between Serwer, the Washington Times' Eli Lake, and a few other interlocutors (including us).

Somalia is a bit outside our normal coverage area, but some interesting points came up in the discussion, and I wanted to expand on them (in more than 140 characters).

Somali militants threaten to attack Israel

Yedioth Ahronoth reports that al-Shabab militants in Somalia are threatening to attack Israel over what they call an Israeli plot to destroy part of the al-Aqsa mosque.

I'm not sure how seriously to take this story. On the one hand, Mogadishu is a long way from Jerusalem. It's sort of like if Mullah Omar threatened to attack Israel: Nasty rhetoric, yes, but very hard to put into action.

That said, East African immigrants regularly find their way to Israel. It's obviously a dangerous trip: a long slog across Sudan, Egypt and the Sinai desert, ending with the very real possibility of being shot by Egyptian guards at the Israeli border. But thousands of them make the trip each year.

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CENTCOM talking sense on Hamas and Hizballah

Al-Akhbar: Our weekly brief

Peace Processing

Talking about direct talks: Netanyahu returns to the White House

Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu delivering a statement in Jerusalem on July 1, 2010. (Photo: AFP)
US president Barack Obama will use a White House meeting with Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu to push for an extended West Bank settlement freeze. If Netanyahu doesn't offer one - and the domestic politics are quite difficult for him - it's hard to see any possibility of direct talks with the Palestinian Authority later this year.

The Afghan Surge

Obama's southern strategy

Gen. David Petraeus testifying on Capitol Hill. (Photo: Reuters)
The president's decision to nominate Gen. David Petraeus as the commander of US and NATO forces in Afghanistan won't mean a major change in strategy. But there are mounting reasons for pessimism about current policy, particularly the relentless focus on southern Afghanistan. The deployment of tens of thousands of additional troops to Kandahar and Helmand serves few NATO objectives.

Freedom Flotilla Killings

Anticlimax: How much did the flotilla raid really change regional politics?

A demonstration in London against the Israeli attack on the Gaza-bound flotilla. (Photo: AFP)
It has accelerated Israel's isolation from several of its neighbors and allies; it has sharpened divisions within Turkish domestic politics; it has deepened perceptions that the Obama administration as too close to Israel. And it seems to have had a remarkably minor impact on Palestinian domestic politics.