Iraqi elections - Tag Search

Iraqiyya TV (no relation to the Iraqiyya list!) ran a "breaking news" headline on Thursday night announcing an official merger between Nouri al-Maliki's State of Law coalition and the Iraqi National Alliance Shi'ite bloc.

Not too exciting, right? The State of Law-INA merger was unofficially announced more than a month ago, and the new governing coalition still hasn't picked a prime minister. They did pick a name (عربي), the National Alliance, but otherwise there's nothing new in this announcement.

Eighty days after the vote, Iraq's Independent High Electoral Commission finally sent the results of the March 7 parliamentary election to the Supreme Court for certification.

But the judiciary prepared to approve the tally just yet: In a statement today, the court said "there are some legal issues that need clarification from IHEC." At least one of those issues involves a candidate for the Iraqi National Alliance, whose ability to run for office was challenged by Nouri al-Maliki's State of Law bloc.

I had to laugh this morning when I read Saudi prince Turki al-Faisal's criticism of Iraqi prime minister Nouri al-Maliki.

"Adding to the brutal mayhem taking place there, we are watching a deliberate effort on the part of the incumbent prime minister, Mr al Maliki, to hijack the results of the election and deny the Iraqi people their legitimately elected government," he said.

The substance of his criticism is actually fair: Maliki and his allies spent weeks complaining about fraud and questioning the validity of the election, but the recently-concluded Baghdad recount found virtually zero evidence of tampering.

But... a member of the Saudi royal family criticizing anyone for being insufficiently democratic? Seriously?

Anthony Shadid reports that the Justice and Accountability Commission -- the de-Ba'athification commission, which roiled Iraqi politics for months -- has finally decided to wrap up its work.

"It's stopped," President Jalal Talabani said. "There will be no more."

Well, good. The commission was a questionably legal body, and it made a series of poorly justified, ad hoc decisions. It played an unconstructive role in Iraqi politics.

That said, I can't help but think abolishing the commission at this point is closing the proverbial barn door after the horse has bolted. The architects of the commission, notably Ahmed Chalabi, already got what they wanted: As Reidar Visser has argued (and argues again in Shadid's piece), the de-Ba'athification process helped to undermine any push for a more nationalist and less sectarian government in Iraq.

In any event, we'll wait and see what replaces the commission (which was supposed to replaced by a successor years ago).

Interesting report in Al-Rafidayn this morning, which speculates that Moqtada al-Sadr is dropping his opposition (عربي) to Nouri al-Maliki's reappointment as prime minister. (Well, sort of.)

Amir al-Kanani, a senior member of the Sadrist movement, told the newspaper that the Sadrists have no "red lines" on the next prime minister. He said the main concern is that State of Law and the Iraqi National Alliance both adhere to the agreed-upon mechanism for appointing the next PM.

OK, I give up. Remember about 48 hours ago, when State of Law and the Iraqi National Alliance announced a coalition?

Well, according to Al-Rafidayn, there's a new narrative: A State of Law/Iraqiyya merger, to be announced within the next few days (عربي).

Attribution is (needless to say) quite vague, an unnamed source who's involved with the talks between the two blocs. Under the terms of the agreement, Nouri al-Maliki would keep his job as prime minister, and Iyad Allawi would take over as president -- except he would also control the military.

I haven't seen this reported anywhere else; other Iraqi newspapers are still talking about the State of Law/INA merger (عربي). If the report is true, the merger could obviously fall apart at any moment, not least because it's unconstitutional: The prime minister is currently designated as the commander-in-chief, not the president.

If I had to speculate, I'd say this is a leak from someone in Allawi's camp. The State of Law/INA merger isn't final yet -- they haven't selected a prime minister -- and Iraqiyya knows Maliki is unhappy that he will almost certainly lose his job as PM. Perhaps this is Allawi's way of reminding Maliki he could keep his job in exchange for Iraqiyya playing a role in the government.

(Updated below) Aside from the horrific violence in Baghdad and Anbar, the big story in Iraqi newspapers this morning is a rumored reconciliation meeting between prime minister Nouri al-Maliki and Iyad Allawi, the leader of the Iraqiyya coalition. There's one report in Al-Sabaah (عربي), another in Al-Rafidayn (عربي); a short item in Aswat al-Iraq; and so on.

Both men have reportedly agreed to the meeting, in principle, and just need to pick a time.

Iyad Allawi's Iraqiyya coalition may have won the most seats in this month's Iraqi election -- but increasingly it looks like prime minister Nouri al-Maliki's State of Law coalition will form the next government, even if Maliki himself loses his job.

Iraq's political parties spent the weekend in feverish negotiations, which seem to be running along two separate tracks. The first is being conducted in Tehran and Najaf, where Maliki's bloc is meeting with the Iraqi National Alliance; a merger between those two would put Maliki within six seats of holding a majority in parliament.

I'm headed out of town soon, but a couple of quick thoughts about yesterday's Iraqi election results (which the New York Times illustrates here).

Most pre-election analysis suggested the Kurdish parties would be kingmakers. They still play an important role -- I'm sure both Iyad Allawi and Nouri al-Maliki are courting them intensely -- but equally important will be the relationship between State of Law and the Iraqi National Alliance, and the internal dynamics of the INA itself.

If State of Law and the Iraqi National Alliance join forces (as has been rumored), they will control almost exactly half of parliament. That means Iraqiyya needs to get everyone else on board -- the Kurdish parties, plus smaller blocs like Tawafuq and Iraqi Unity -- in order to form a government.

We're waiting on detailed final results from Iraq's Independent High Electoral Commission -- we'll update this thread when we get them -- but the commission just announced that Iyad Allawi's Iraqiyya coalition took first place in the election, with 91 seats; prime minister Nouri al-Maliki's State of Law coalition came in second, with 89.

Update, 2:35 p.m.: Right on cue, here's Maliki crying fraud (عربي); he says State of Law will still form the government and that today's results "are not final" (IHEC might beg to differ).

Update, 2:43 p.m.: More numbers, via Iraq's Al-Rafidayn newspaper: The Iraqi National Allliance received 71 seats (عربي) -- no word on how those seats break down within the alliance -- and the Kurdistan Alliance, the largest Kurdish bloc, received 43.

Update, 2:50 p.m.: The Iraqi Unity bloc (interior minister Jawad al-Bolani and Sheikh Ahmed Abu Risha) received four seats, including just one in Anbar province; the Gorran movement, the Kurdistan Alliance's main rival, won 8; and the Tawafuq bloc won 6.

Senior members of Iraqi prime minister Nouri al-Maliki's State of Law coalition are warning of widespread Shi'ite anger -- and even hinting at outright violence -- unless election officials agree to a recount.

Sami Askari, a senior adviser to Maliki, called the Independent High Electoral Commission a "U.N. puppet," and accused the CIA of orchestrating Iraqiyya's apparent narrow victory over State of Law. He warned that Shi'ite southern Iraq might stop sending oil to Baghdad, and made a veiled threat about sectarian violence:

With 95 percent of the votes now counted, the Iraqiyya coalition has extended its national lead over State of Law to 11,346 votes. (The full results are here.)

That could be why prime minister Nouri al-Maliki has now personally asked the Independent High Electoral Commission for a recount (عربي). His coalition partners have made similar requests over the last few days, but this is the first time Maliki himself alleged fraud. He complained about the results today during a meeting with Ad Melkert, the head of the U.N. mission in Baghdad, and issued a statement demanding IHEC restart its tally.

As usual: The latest numbers are here. The Independent High Electoral Commission says 92 percent of the votes (عربي) have been counted nationwide; only two provinces, Kirkuk and Salaheddin, are below the 90 percent mark.

Iraqiyya has pulled ahead of State of Law by the narrowest of margins: Both coalitions have around 2.5 million votes, and Iraqiyya leads by just 7,928.

Iyad Allawi's coalition was helped by a strong showing in Baghdad in the latest batch of numbers: Iraqiyya was 70,000 votes behind State of Law in the previous round of results; today's release closed the gap to 50,000 votes.

Allawi, who apparently expects to win, told Al-Jazeera he would not rush to form a new government (عربي; h/t Marc Lynch). He also hinted at working with current Iraqi prime minister Nouri al-Maliki, as long as the latter wants to pursue a non-sectarian coalition.

Sorry, guys; I know fully half of our posts this week have been "new Iraqi election results!" posts. We're almost done, though: About 90 percent of the vote has been tallied. The latest results, as always, are here.

State of Law leads the national tally, but less than 30,000 40,000 votes separate Nouri al-Maliki's coalition from Iraqiyya. Baghdad remains close; it looks like State of Law will pick up two or three more seats in the capital than Iraqiyya. The Shi'ite vote remains mostly split in southern Iraq, except for Basra, where State of Law has emerged as a clear winner over the Iraqi National Alliance.

Oh, and Anbar continues to be a rout for Iraqiyya; the second-place Tawafuq (Change) bloc has pulled even further ahead of Abu Risha's Iraqi Unity coalition.

Another morning, another batch of Iraqi election results. Roughly 80 percent of the ballots have been counted, and Iyad Allawi's Iraqiyya coalition now has a narrow nationwide lead (9,000 votes) over Nouri al-Maliki's State of Law.

The race in Baghdad continues to tighten up. Yesterday's results from the capital put State of Law at 518,203, and Iraqiyya at 453,028, a 13 percent gap. Today, State of Law has 663,311 votes, compared to 594,053 for Iraqiyya -- a 10 percent difference.

As usual, full results are here.

... but on the day Iraqiyya seems to be pulling neck-and-neck with State of Law, Ali al-Adeeb -- a senior member of the Dawa party (and thus State of Law) -- demanded a full recount and accused Iyad Allawi's people of rigging the election.

Could Iyad Allawi's Iraqiyya coalition win the largest share of seats in Iraq's next parliament? Reidar Visser thinks so -- and the numbers we have so far seem to support his theory. (You can see the latest results here).

On a national level, State of Law (1.75 million votes) is still outpacing Iraqiyya (1.3 million) -- though that could change as we get further results, particularly those from Baghdad and Anbar. And the totals are ultimately less important than the province-by-province numbers, which determine the allocation of parliamentary seats.

Busy day for me, so don't expect much blogging until tonight. But I did take a little time to update our Iraq election results database, because the Independent High Electoral Commission released a major new batch of numbers. All provinces have now reported 60 percent or more of their votes.

Notable trends: Kirkuk is still basically neck-and-neck between Iraqiyya and the Kurdistan Alliance; State of Law has a considerable lead over the Iraqi National Alliance in most Shi'ite provinces, save for Dhi Qar; the Iraqi Unity coalition (interior minister Jawad al-Bolani and Awakening leader Sheikh Ahmed Abu Risha) is doing very poorly, losing to Iraqiyya in Anbar province by nearly an 8-to-1 margin; the Gorran movement made a strong showing in Sulaymaniyah.

As always, you can view the complete results here. More blogging later.

Update, 9:12 a.m.: IHEC just released numbers from the last four governorates (Dhi Qar, Kirkuk, Sulaymaniyah, and Wassit) still uncounted. We now have preliminary tallies from all 18 provinces -- though some are still less than 20 percent complete.

Original post: Another batch of results from Iraq, this time from Karbala province, where prime minister Nouri al-Maliki's State of Law coalition has a roughly two-to-one lead over the Iraqi National Alliance. You can view the latest results here.

The Independent High Electoral Commission hasn't posted numbers from Kirkuk yet, but there are reports that Iyad Allawi's Iraqiyya coalition has a narrow lead over the Kurdistan Alliance. That would be a surprising outcome -- though preliminary results could oversample Sunni neighborhoods and therefore be misleading.

We've updated our Iraqi election results page with numbers from Baghdad, Muthanna, Ninewa and Qadisiyah provinces. Note that these are very preliminary results -- the Independent High Electoral Commission has tallied less than 20 percent of the ballots in each of these provinces. You can view the latest results here.