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Yemen's Insurgency

Gun battle in Saada province kills three

Not much good news out of Yemen these last few days, where a gunfight in Saada province continues to threaten the already shaky cease-fire between the government and the Huthi rebels.

Yemen's Insurgency

Another crack in the cease-fire, ctd.

Huthi rebels shot and killed a Yemeni soldier in Saada late last night, then dumped his body in a well, according to Reuters, which in turn cites the government media office in Sana'a. The soldier, Namran Suleiman Jaber Hadshan, was reportedly a bodyguard to a member of parliament.

But the Huthis issued a statement (عربي) denying any connection with the soldier's killing. They also issued a separate statement yesterday denying responsibility for Thursday's shooting on a military plane flying over Saada.

"We are not responsible for any shot at a military airplane on Thursday morning, and we have not fired at any airplane since the beginning of the truce on February 12," the statement said.

The rebels promised to cooperate with any inquiry into the source of the anti-aircraft fire (which missed the plane). Journalists can't operate independently in Saada, so it's impossible to know who's telling the truth about either incident.

Yemen's Insurgency

Another crack in the cease-fire?

Reuters and Mareb Press (عربي) are both reporting that a Yemeni military plane came under anti-aircraft fire while flying over the city of Saada. The committee monitoring the cease-fire between the government and the Huthi rebels calls the incident a "serious violation" of the truce.

The aircraft -- an Antonov transport -- was not hit in the shooting. It was reportedly on a "routine" mission, according to Mareb Press, carrying government and military officials from Sana'a to Saada province.

The two-month-old cease-fire has shown several signs of strain in recent weeks. The monitoring committee said last week that the rebels aren't holding up their end of the truce; and a shootout on Tuesday between rebels and a school guard left two people dead.

Yemen's Insurgency

Report: Huthis not meeting cease-fire terms

A couple of other news items from northern Yemen (apart from the Amnesty International photos):

The Yemeni government released 161 rebels detained during the latest phase of the Huthi war. The release of prisoners (on both sides) was one of the conditions of the cease-fire signed back in February. A spokesman for the rebels called any prisoner release "a positive step."

Yemen's Insurgency

More images from Sa'ada's Operation Scorched Earth

(Updated, fixed my sloppy and incorrect translation) The Independent published another batch of Amnesty International's photos from Sa'ada province in northern Yemen. The images show widespread destruction: Shattered homes, the skeletal remains of schools and power plants, rubble strewn everywhere.

Several show angry graffiti scrawled on the walls of damaged buildings. In this one, for example, the Arabic graffiti reads "This is the destruction made by American and Saudi Arabian planes."

One point worth emphasizing: In these images of the last war, you see the possible seeds of the next war. The Huthi conflict has evolved a lot over the last six years, and it would be reductive to say it's fueled by local grievances; the underlying issue is really Zaidi fear of growing Wahhabi influence.

But underdevelopment and poor government services in Sa'ada certainly create resentment towards Sana'a. The government flattened much of the province during the latest phase of the war; if it doesn't make a serious effort to rebuild, public anger will flare up again.

Yemen's Insurgency

Images of destruction from Sa'ada province

Amnesty International released a handful of photos of Yemen's Sa'ada province from a batch of hundreds it says it received from an "independent source."

Sa'ada -- the site of the recently-paused Yemeni-Huthi conflict -- has been a virtual no-go zone for years. Journalists are simply barred from the province; NGOs are allowed to work in Sa'ada, but strictly forbidden to talk with the press. Amnesty International's photos are the first independent images I've seen from Sa'ada in some time.

We won't reproduce any of them here; go take a look on Amnesty's Web site. Only three of the photos are posted right now, but we've contacted Amnesty to see if they plan to release more.

Yemen's Insurgency

Huthis release 178 prisoners, allow police in Saada

The Yemeni-Huthi truce, signed more than a month ago, is still holding on -- and a couple of recent developments suggest the Huthis are serious about implementing its terms.

The Huthis released 178 prisoners today, according to the cease-fire monitoring committee, a government body that oversees implementation of the truce. The prisoners include both soldiers and civilians; they've been transported from Saada to Sana'a.

Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula

Yemen's moment in the sun

I've got a piece over on Foreign Policy looking at Yemen's near-total disappearance from the headlines over the last few weeks. There's a lot of important news happening in Yemen -- the Huthi cease-fires, the Riyadh conference, the growing unrest in the south -- and almost none of it is getting covered.

Yemen's Insurgency

Yemen's PM warns the Huthis, reassures the Saudis

If I can paraphrase the latest statement (عربي) from Ali Mohamed Mujawar, Yemen's prime minister: We're not looking to start a sixth civil war with the Huthis, but we're not averse to it, either!

Mujawar warned today that the government would resume its fight against the Huthis unless they quickly implement the six terms of the cease-fire. The rebels say they're already well on their way to implementing the terms: The Huthis say they withdrew from Sa'ada province earlier today; they've returned all of their (living) Saudi prisoners; they've reportedly started dismantling roadblocks.

Saleh asks the GCC for a little help

Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh is in Riyadh today pleading for money meeting with his Saudi counterpart to discuss issues of regional importance.

Saleh's visit is a precursor to the "Riyadh conference" on Saturday, which will involve Yemen, the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council, and U.S. and European representatives. Yemen is hoping to raise a lot of money from international donors -- on the order of $40 billion over the next five years, according to one diplomat -- and Saleh hopes much of that will come from the GCC.

Yemen's Insurgency

How not to win hearts and minds

Making news out of Yemen this week: Huthi rebels in the country's north have returned a prisoner of war to Saudi Arabia, and Christmas Day underwear bomber Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab told investigators that he trained with other English-speaking Al-Qaeda terrorists-to-be in the country.

Not making news out of Yemen this week: American aid to the hundreds of thousands of Yemenis displaced by the Huthi rebellion.

Yemen's Insurgency

Huthis release their first Saudi prisoner

Yemen's Huthi rebels have reportedly released the first of five Saudi Arabian prisoners of war in their custody.

Rebels say they released the first soldier, Yahya Abdullah al-Khazai, as a humanitarian gesture (عربي); Khazai was wounded in the leg during fighting earlier this year. The Huthis say they will free the other four prisoners "in the hours and days to come."

Saudi Arabia gave the rebels a 48-hour deadline to free their captives on Saturday. The rebels won't meet that deadline -- but Saudi Arabia doesn't seem interested in restarting the war just yet, and today's goodwill gesture will buy the Huthis some time.

Yemen's Insurgency

Huthis plan to release prisoners of war

Yemen's Huthi rebels say they have withdrawn their forces from around the airport in Saada province, and they're planning to release their Saudi prisoners of war (عربي).

The rebels say they're also close to removing the last of their roadblocks in Saada -- another one of the Yemeni government's six conditions for the truce. And they deny that they're responsible for yesterday's assassination attempt against Gen. Mohammed Abdullah al-Qussi, a deputy interior minister, whose car was sprayed with bullets yesterday.

Yemen's Insurgency

Fragile Huthi cease-fire begins to fray

The Yemeni government says Huthi rebels killed three soldiers and destroyed a government building in Saada province -- just hours after declaring a cease-fire.

AFP reports that the rebels tried to kill Gen. Mohammed Abdullah al-Qussi, the head of army operations in Saada. Qussi survived the assassination attempt, but several people were killed and injured in the shooting.

"I escaped an assassination attempt by the rebels who opened fire on my car," the head of army operations for Saada province, General Mohammed Abdullah al-Qussi, told AFP.

Qussi says the rebels also staged several other attacks in Saada's Iqab district. As usual, none of these claims can be independently confirmed.

Mareb Press quotes unnamed Yemeni military sources (عربي) who say they're holding up their end of the cease-fire. But the whole thing could quickly unravel: The last cease-fire, in September, fell apart after both sides accused the other of violating the truce.

Yemen's Insurgency

Saleh announces cease-fire with Huthis

Following up on this morning's post: Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh has announced a cease-fire with the Huthi rebels. Saleh read a decree announcing the truce on state television; it takes effect at midnight Yemen time (2100 GMT).

The state-run Al-Thawra has more details (عربي) on Saleh's decree. It's similar to the proposals that were reported this morning -- the "six conditions," several parliamentary committees to monitor their implementation, etc. 

The big question now, of course, is whether it will hold. The north has not been quiet for long: AFP reported fighting late last night (عربي) in Amran province, which is due south of Saada province; 12 Yemeni soldiers and 24 rebels were reportedly killed following a surprise attack by the Huthis. And the last cease-fire, announced in September, collapsed after about 24 hours.

Yemen's Insurgency

Yemen, Huthi rebels move closer to a truce

I tweeted yesterday about some new reports of an imminent cease-fire between the Yemeni government and the Huthi rebels.

Those reports have multiplied in the last 24 hours or so: Wire services report that both sides exchanged proposals this week, and Al-Jazeera's Hashem Ahelbarra says an envoy from Sana'a is meeting today with Abdel Malik al-Huthi, the rebel leader.

Yemen's Insurgency

Saada governor: Huthis don't really want a cease-fire

Hard to tell, as usual, exactly what's happening up in Saada province, but Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh is signalling -- in word and in deed -- that he's not terribly interested in a cease-fire with the Huthi rebels.

16 rebels were killed in Saada earlier this week, according to state media reports; the dead reportedly included a number of "leaders," but the government hasn't identified any of them. The army says it also destroyed a vehicle carrying ammunition to the rebels (عربي), and seized several farms which were being used as rebel hideouts.

Yemen's Insurgency

Saada fighting kills 20 in 24 hours

At least 20 people have been killed in Saada province in fighting between the Huthi rebels and the Yemeni army over the last 24 hours. Saudi Arabia says it is no longer receiving fire from "Huthi snipers" -- a mildly encouraging sign for the Huthi-Saudi cease-fire -- but the Yemeni army is still fighting heavily.

Yemen's Insurgency

Saleh rejects Huthi cease-fire offer

Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh is moving the goalposts.

Saleh rejected the proposed cease-fire from the Huthi rebels, according to Yemen's state-run SABA news service (عربي). Abdul Malik al-Huthi, the rebel leader, agreed to the five cease-fire conditions previously established by Saleh's government -- but now Saleh says there is a sixth: The rebels must return Saudi Arabian hostages and vow not to attack Saudi territory.

Yemen's Insurgency

A Yemeni-Huthi cease-fire? Not so fast

Abdul Malik al-Huthi, the leader of the rebels, says he's willing to abide by the five conditions for a cease-fire established by the Yemeni government.

But don't get excited. This is, by my (unofficial) count, either the third or fourth time the Huthis have made such an offer. It's the second in just four weeks: The Huthis said on Jan. 4 that they were willing to immediately launch a dialogue with the government.

Obviously none of those prior offers have led to a cease-fire. And this one seems destined for the same fate: There's no evidence the rebels coordinated with the Yemeni government, and a one-sided offer to restart talks doesn't mean much. Huthi's offer also depends on the Yemeni army halting its operations; that seems unlikely, since we're still seeing near-daily reports of army operations in Saada province.

The five conditions, by the way, are the removal of all roadblocks; the surrender of remote mountain bases in Saada; a withdrawal from local government buildings; the return of all seized military equipment; and the release of all kidnapped civilians and captured soldiers.

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Peace Processing

Talking about direct talks: Netanyahu returns to the White House

Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu delivering a statement in Jerusalem on July 1, 2010. (Photo: AFP)
US president Barack Obama will use a White House meeting with Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu to push for an extended West Bank settlement freeze. If Netanyahu doesn't offer one - and the domestic politics are quite difficult for him - it's hard to see any possibility of direct talks with the Palestinian Authority later this year.

The Afghan Surge

Obama's southern strategy

Gen. David Petraeus testifying on Capitol Hill. (Photo: Reuters)
The president's decision to nominate Gen. David Petraeus as the commander of US and NATO forces in Afghanistan won't mean a major change in strategy. But there are mounting reasons for pessimism about current policy, particularly the relentless focus on southern Afghanistan. The deployment of tens of thousands of additional troops to Kandahar and Helmand serves few NATO objectives.

Freedom Flotilla Killings

Anticlimax: How much did the flotilla raid really change regional politics?

A demonstration in London against the Israeli attack on the Gaza-bound flotilla. (Photo: AFP)
It has accelerated Israel's isolation from several of its neighbors and allies; it has sharpened divisions within Turkish domestic politics; it has deepened perceptions that the Obama administration as too close to Israel. And it seems to have had a remarkably minor impact on Palestinian domestic politics.