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Tension in the Levant

CENTCOM talking sense on Hamas and Hizballah

Mark Perry strikes again over on Foreign Policy's Middle East Channel:

In a "Red Team" report issued on May 7 and entitled "Managing Hizballah and Hamas," senior CENTCOM intelligence officers question the current U.S. policy of isolating and marginalizing the two movements.

Perry reported in March that Gen. David Petraeus asked to include the West Bank and Gaza in CENTCOM's area of responsibility (some notes from a follow-up conversation I had with Perry are here). Today's report fits in the same vein: Military leaders, if not civilian policymakers, are starting to see the deep structural flaws in US policy in the Middle East.

The Gaza Blockade

Report: Lebanon will bar Gaza flotilla from leaving

A group of female activists is preparing a ship full of women, called the Mariam, which is scheduled to leave Lebanon for Gaza in the coming days. Or maybe not.

The Israeli government has already warned the United Nations that it will use "all necessary force" to stop the ship. Israel has also linked the ship to Hizballah, but the group denied any connection to the flotilla in a statement released Friday.

A small step towards refugee rights in Lebanon

It didn't get a great deal of attention in the English-language media, but Lebanon's parliament held an important debate earlier this week on granting basic rights to Palestinian refugees.

This has long been a controversial issue in Lebanon, where some 400,000 Palestinians are currently denied the freedom to work (except in low-level positions, though few Palestinians qualified for the requisite work permits), own property and travel overseas, and have little access to basic social services from the government.

A new set of draft laws (credit where's it due: Walid Jumblatt is one of the co-sponsors) would extend some of those basic rights to Palestinian refugees.

Diplomacy with Damascus

Assad: Iran endorsed indirect talks with Israel

Update: Here's a link to last week's interview.

Original post: Charlie Rose interviewed Bashar al-Assad last night -- his second conversation with the Syrian president, if I'm not mistaken.

PBS hasn't posted a video of the interview yet -- we'll update when they do -- but BusinessWeek posted a few excerpts. Most are predictable -- Assad denied that his government shipped Scuds to Hizballah, for example -- but two lines jumped out at me.

Hariri's first visit to Washington as Prime Minister: Scuds, Hizballah and Iran

For basically as long as Lebanon has existed as a modern nation, foreign forces have found the country a useful proxy to assert their regional interests in the Middle East, so it's not exactly breaking from script for the Obama administration and the U.S. Congress to assert an extremely self-interested agenda during Prime Minister Saad Hariri's first visit to Washington since coming to power last summer. (Nor is it strange for America to be self-interested, but I digress.)

Hariri met with Obama on Monday; he spent Tuesday with Vice President Joe Biden and members of Congress, including House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Looking at the reporting that has emerged in the past two days, those meetings have been dominated by topics of American concern: the alleged transfer of Scud missiles from Syria to Hizballah, the disarming of Hizballah, and Lebanon's role in the U.S.-led effort to sanction Iran. Shelved, for the most part: Discussion of America's mired attempt to kick-start Israeli-Palestinian peace.

Brennan: Finding the "moderate elements" in Hizballah

John Brennan, Barack Obama's counterterrorism adviser, thinks the U.S. government needs to strengthen what he calls "moderate" elements within Hizballah.

"Hezbollah is a very interesting organization," Brennan told a Washington conference. "There is certainly the elements of Hezbollah that are truly a concern to us what they're doing. And what we need to do is to find ways to diminish their influence within the organization and to try to build up the more moderate elements," Brennan said.

The White House denied just last month that it was planning to engage Hizballah, and you might remember the absurd flap earlier this year over Rob Malley (a former U.S. official) holding low-level talks with Hamas.

Diplomacy with Damascus

Obama renews Syria sanctions: Policy on autopilot?

It didn't come as much of a surprise yesterday when the White House announced it was renewing economic sanctions against Syria.

Syria's "continuing support for terrorist organisations and pursuit of weapons of mass destruction and missile programmes, continue to pose an unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security, foreign policy, and economy of the United States," President Obama wrote in a message to Congress.

Obama praised the Syrian government for its efforts to reduce the flow of foreign fighters into Iraq (efforts which, you might remember, the Washington Post editorial page recently insisted Syria hadn't undertaken). But Obama said Syria would have to take a number of other steps before Washington would lift its sanctions.

The Gaza Strip

Life and death sentences for Hizballah and Hamas

The Egyptian government's relationship with Hamas and Hizballah -- already frosty -- will probably take a turn for the worse after the last 24 hours.

Egypt's state security court yesterday convicted 26 men of links to Hizballah; four of them are on the run and were tried in absentia. The men received tough sentences -- including life sentences for three of them -- which cannot be appealed (the security court isn't subject to judicial review, pursuant to the emergency laws). Prosecutors had requested the death penalty.

Tension in the Levant

Hariri works the phones and talks Scuds

It's been a few days since we checked in on the "Scud crisis" in Lebanon, where prime minister Saad Hariri is now launching a major diplomatic offensive (عربي) to push back against the reports that Hizballah received Scuds from Syria.

Hariri held telephone conversations today with a number of world leaders, including German chancellor Angela Merkel, French president Nicolas Sarkozy, and Italian prime minister Silvio Berlusconi. He also spoke with Syrian president Bashar al-Assad. Hariri assured all of them that Hizballah hasn't received any Scuds, and warned of the broader consequences of a new Israeli-Lebanese war.

Tension in the Levant

Hariri: Scud reports like Iraq WMD claims

Lebanese prime minister Saad Hariri says Hizballah has not received Scud missiles from Syria, and likens that report to the weapons of mass destruction claims that preceded the Iraq war.

Tension in the Levant

Hizballah's deputy leader: Israel making up Scud reports

Sheikh Naim Qassem, Hizballah's deputy leader, refuses to confirm or deny reports that his organization received Scud missiles from Syria. In an interview with Al-Sharq Al-Awsat, Qassem said Hizballah is "satisfied" with its current position, and called the Scud reports an Israeli ploy (عربي) to distract attention from their own nuclear program.

Tension in the Levant

Kuwaiti press: Hizballah admits receiving Syrian Scuds

The Jerusalem Post reports today that Hizballah admitted receiving Scud missiles from Syria, but insists the missiles are "old and unusable."

The sources added, "Our organization has many surface-to-surface missiles spread across all of Lebanon, in case Israel attacks the country again."

The Jerusalem Post's report is sourced to the Kuwaiti newspaper Al-Rai. The original report is available here (عربي); it's attributed to unnamed sources in Hizballah's military wing, who say the group only received a few old, decommissioned missiles. The sourcing is vague, though, and it's a Kuwaiti newspaper (often the Arabic media equivalent of supermarket tabloids).

Politics on the Pitch

National unity in an empty Beirut stadium

If you follow Lebanon closely, you've already seen this and had a good laugh about it. If not: Lebanon's top politicians met yesterday at the Cite Sportif (عربي) in Beirut for a "national unity" football game to mark the 35th anniversary of the start of the Lebanese civil war.

So Lebanese papers this morning are full of images like this one:

The Hariri-led red team won the match, 2-0, over the white team, led by Hizballah MP Ali Ammar. NOW Lebanon has a bit of videoSean Lee and Qifa Nabki have some amusing details and more photos of the match; and al-Mustaqbal has a seemingly endless collection of Hariri photos (عربي).

The match was played in an empty stadium, by the way, for security reasons. And it doesn't seem to have impressed many people in Lebanon.

The Hariri Investigation

Nasrallah: U.N. tribunal summoned Hizballah members to testify

Hizballah leader Hassan Nasrallah gave a much-anticipated interview last night (عربي) to Al-Manar, Hizballah's television station. Nasrallah confirmed reports that the United Nations Special Tribunal for Lebanon -- the body investigating Rafiq Hariri's 2005 assassination -- summoned 12 members of Hizballah for interviews.

Tension in the Levant

Stopping a preemptive strike

Can the U.S. stop Israel from attacking its neighbors? Sen. John Kerry thinks the Israeli government wouldn't bomb Iran without American approval.

Kerry's actual remarks are a little more caveated than the Ha'aretz headline suggests, but my interpretation is that he doesn't think Israel will attack Iran unless Obama admits diplomacy has failed and gives Netanyahu the green light.

Bronnergate

LAT media critic comes to Bronner's defense

James Rainey, the Los Angeles Times' media critic, waded into the month-old controversy over New York Times Jerusalem Bureau Chief Ethan Bronner yesterday, concluding that Bronner should be allowed to remain in his post, despite his son volunteering to join Israel's army, the Israel Defense Forces.

In his piece, Rainey argues that Bronner is a skilled reporter who should be judged on the content of his journalism, not on potential biases and internal thought processes that nobody besides Bronner himself can fully understand.

Rainey makes a good case for judging journalists by their work, but he also sidesteps the most powerful arguments against Bronner's remaining.

Diplomacy with Damascus

State Department lifts Syria travel warning

In the department of "things that should have been done a long time ago," the U.S. State Department has finally lifted its Syria travel warning.

I was never entirely clear on why Syria fell under a travel warning in the first place: The State Department's warning (which has since been removed from the Internet) never referenced any specific threats -- just some ominous language about "large-scale demonstrations" in Damascus, and the fact that Hamas and Hizballah have offices in the country. It always struck me as a product of politics, not legitimate security concerns.

In any event, glad to see it has been lifted. The State Department's full announcement is after the jump.

Tension in the Levant

In which I defend Hassan Nasrallah

Not because I'm a huge fan of his or anything. But Nasrallah gave a speech today -- delivered, as usual, via giant video screens in south Beirut -- and much of the reporting on his talk is woefully out of context. Yedioth Ahronoth, for example, headlines its story Nasrallah threatens to attack Ben-Gurion Airport. The Jerusalem Post goes with Nasrallah warns TA will be targeted in next conflict.

These headlines are factually correct -- but they ignore the fact that Nasrallah's speech (عربي) was largely defensive.

March 14

Hariri supporters rally in Beirut's Martyrs Square

Lebanese prime minister Saad Hariri's supporters descended on Beirut's Martyrs Square to mark the fifth anniversary of his father's assassination -- even though nobody is quite sure whether the younger Hariri's March 14 alliance has a future.

The rally, in the shadow of the Mohammed al-Amin mosque, has become an annual event in Beirut in the five years since Rafiq Hariri was killed by a massive car bomb. Television news reports say the crowd was smaller than in previous years -- but it still numbered in the tens of thousands.

Peace Processing

Can Obama create a sense of security for Israelis?

Joel Rubin, back from Israel after attending the Herzliya Conference, has a thoughtful essay about contemporary Israeli politics posted on Democracy Arsenal.

Rubin argues that most Israelis hate the policies enacted by their right-wing leaders -- but they also continue to overwhelmingly support those same leaders, because they're fearful for their security. It's a trade-off between short-term and long-term interests, in other words.

Dozens arrested in Khaled Said protest in Cairo

Basra provincial council calls for autonomous region

Saudi Arabia's rehab recidivists

Al-Akhbar: Our weekly brief

Freedom Flotilla Killings

Anticlimax: How much did the flotilla raid really change regional politics?

A demonstration in London against the Israeli attack on the Gaza-bound flotilla. (Photo: AFP)
It has accelerated Israel's isolation from several of its neighbors and allies; it has sharpened divisions within Turkish domestic politics; it has deepened perceptions that the Obama administration as too close to Israel. And it seems to have had a remarkably minor impact on Palestinian domestic politics.

Nuclear Negotiations

U.N. Security Council passes new Iran sanctions, but will anything change?

The so-called P5+1 countries have threatened that their 'patience is running out' with regards to Iran's nuclear program.
Twelve of the Security Council's 15 members voted in favor of a fourth round of sanctions on Tuesday, but the new resolution reflected strong desires by China and Russia to avoid crippling the Islamic Republic's economy. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad quickly dismissed the sanctions as a "used handkerchief" that should be thrown away.

Freedom Flotilla Killings

Flotilla raid, day 2: Death toll revised down, int'l calls for investigation

This frame from a Sky News video appears to show flotilla passengers attacking Israeli troops with clubs after the troops rappelled onto the ship from helicopters.
Intent on stopping six Gaza-bound ships carrying hundreds of people and tens of thousands of tons of supplies, Israel launched a nighttime raid early on Monday morning, boarding all six ships with helicopter-borne troops. Video showed the troops fighting hand-to-hand with flotilla passengers, at least 10 of whom were killed, while a handful of Israeli soldiers were injured.