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It seems crass to talk about "winners" and "losers" after Israel's deadly attack on the flotilla of ships bound for Gaza last month. Nine people were killed, after all; dozens of others were wounded.

Still: It's worth stepping back and thinking about how the flotilla incident has reshaped the politics of the region. My initial take -- bearing in mind that it's too early to predict long-term consequences -- is that the Israeli attack has mostly accelerated existing political trends, rather than creating new ones.

It has accelerated Israel's isolation from several of its neighbors and allies; it has sharpened divisions within Turkish domestic politics; it has deepened perceptions that the Obama administration as too close to Israel. And it seems to have had a remarkably minor impact on Palestinian domestic politics.

After an uncharacteristically restrained response to Israel's attack on the Gaza flotilla, Iran seems intent on stealing some of Turkey's thunder.

We haven't remarked yet on the flotilla of cargo ships making their way from the Turkish coast towards the Gaza Strip. The boats left international waters around Cyprus this afternoon; they expect to reach Gazan waters -- and a group of Israeli Navy ships waiting offshore -- tomorrow morning.

It would be dismissive and unfair to call the flotilla a PR stunt; the ships are carrying 10,000 tons of aid, all of it sorely needed in the blockaded Gaza Strip. It's an impressive humanitarian gesture (though if the aid does get through, it's hardly certain Hamas will distribute it according to need).

Update: Here's a link to last week's interview.

Original post: Charlie Rose interviewed Bashar al-Assad last night -- his second conversation with the Syrian president, if I'm not mistaken.

PBS hasn't posted a video of the interview yet -- we'll update when they do -- but BusinessWeek posted a few excerpts. Most are predictable -- Assad denied that his government shipped Scuds to Hizballah, for example -- but two lines jumped out at me.

Hamas bulldozed dozens of Palestinian homes today which it said were built illegally on government land in Gaza. It seems the irony of this action was lost on the Hamas leadership.

More demolitions are expected today, according to local residents, who worry they won't be able to rebuild because Israel does not allow building materials into Gaza. (A small shipment -- 30 tons -- was approved today, but that material is earmarked for French workers who are rebuilding a hospital destroyed during Operation Cast Lead.)

Well, they've officially started. I'll spare you a long post on the subject -- I've written too much about proximity talks this year as it is -- but three quick points:

How long will the talks run? I've heard several different timeframes, but the most common number is four months -- that's how long Palestinian officials are willing to give the talks.

What will they discuss? Borders seem the most likely issue, but Benjamin Netanyahu wants to talk about interim borders, Mahmoud Abbas wants final borders, and neither man seems willing to budge. If they don't discuss borders, I really have no idea what will be on the agenda. Small confidence-building measures -- releasing prisoners, for example -- won't be enough to lead to direct talks.

Could they stall early? Absolutely. The most likely reason is more construction in East Jerusalem. Palestinian officials have been clear that they're counting on the U.S. to preempt any "surprises"; if there's another Ramot Shlomo-esque announcement, the talks are probably dead.

Finally, not to be the skunk at the garden party, but a question: Israel-PA talks are great, but what about Hamas? What about Gaza?

The Egyptian government's relationship with Hamas and Hizballah -- already frosty -- will probably take a turn for the worse after the last 24 hours.

Egypt's state security court yesterday convicted 26 men of links to Hizballah; four of them are on the run and were tried in absentia. The men received tough sentences -- including life sentences for three of them -- which cannot be appealed (the security court isn't subject to judicial review, pursuant to the emergency laws). Prosecutors had requested the death penalty.

Mahmoud al-Zahar, a senior member of the Hamas political wing, says his organization isn't happy (عربي) about the Gilad Shalit cartoon released over the weekend.

"The video does not reflect the official position of Hamas," Zahar said. "We have not killed, and will not kill, captive Israeli soldiers; our morals prevent us from doing so."

A group of Israeli students held a rally for Shalit today in Rishon Lezion, a town near Tel Aviv. No word on any possible resumption of talks for his release, which have been stalled for months.

Hamas released an elaborately-produced cartoon this weekend (embedded after the jump) aimed at pressuring Israel to restart negotiations for Gilad Shalit's release -- and at bolstering its own weakening position in Gaza.

Shalit's father, Noam, is shown walking around Israel with a photo of his son; clips play in the background from the two recordings of Shalit that Hamas has released since capturing him in June 2006. He walks by posters of Israeli politicians promising his son's return, and grows progressively older throughout the cartoon.

Near the end of the recording, Shalit is shown receiving his son's flag-draped coffin at the Erez crossing point; then he wakes up and realizes he was dreaming.

The Jerusalem Media and Communications Center has a new poll out gauging on Palestinian views on internal politics and the peace process.

We've plucked out some of the highlights, and compared them to JMCC's last political poll, conducted in June 2009. This month's survey shows much stronger support for a one-state solution (from 21 percent last year to 34 percent today), particularly in Gaza. It also found markedly diminished support for Hamas (again, particularly in Gaza), and a growing sense of optimism about those long-stalled Palestinian reconciliation talks.

Hamas temporarily ordered the closure of all smuggling tunnels between Egypt and the Gaza Strip, reportedly in response to pressure from the Egyptian government. 

The closure seems linked to a travel warning issued yesterday by the Israeli government, which urged its citizens to avoid travel to the Sinai Peninsula because of a kidnapping threat. This isn't quite unusual; Israel issues similar warnings every few months, like this one from Passover 2009. But yesterday's warning was linked to a specific plot, according to Israeli intelligence officials, and not just generalized fears.

Hamas has started taxing street vendors and imposed a number of other new taxes in an effort to shore up its sagging finances.

Jamal Nassar, a Hamas MP, says the government is facing a financial crisis (عربي) because of international sanctions and the blockade. Nassar blames the Egyptian government for the current crisis: He says the new underground wall along the Gaza-Egypt border has choked off commerce into the Gaza Strip. Al-Arabiya reports that the wall has shut down most of the tunnels used to smuggle goods into Gaza. Hamas taxes those tunnels, so less smuggling means lower revenues.

A new military order scheduled to go into effect tomorrow in Israel could give the Israeli government sweeping authority to deport hundreds of thousands of Palestinians from the West Bank.

The new order is actually a revision of a 1969 directive aimed at keeping "infiltrators" out of the West Bank. The original version defined "infiltrator" as "a person who entered the area knowingly and unlawfully after having been present in the east bank of the Jordan, Syria, Egypt or Lebanon following the effective date."

An updated version of the order -- first reported this weekend by Ha'aretz's Amira Hass -- would change the definition to "a person who entered the area unlawfully following the effective date, or a person who is present in the area and does not lawfully hold a permit."

Hamas officials say they're working to restrict rocket fire from Gaza into Israel, a day after Israeli fighter jets bombed four Hamas facilities across the Gaza Strip.

Israeli jets launched a total of 13 airstrikes late Thursday night, destroying four Hamas buildings, including two reported "training camps" and a media production facility. The bombings injured at least three people, including two children.

Two Israeli soldiers and two Palestinians died today in Gaza today after an Israeli army patrol reportedly spotted people planting explosives along the border. It was the first time Israeli troops have died in Gaza since Operation Cast Lead, an Israeli winter offensive launched more than a year ago.

Palestinian militants attempted to capture an Israeli soldier when IDF troops entered Gaza, the BBC reported.

The two Palestinian fighters were killed when gunmen opened fire on an IDF patrol inside Gaza, killing an officer and a conscript and wounding two others. Now, the BBC reports that Israeli tanks and bulldozers have entered Gaza, while the Israeli navy has opened fire along the coast. The BBC is also carrying video of helicopters firing missiles.

A rocket fired from Gaza on Thursday killed a Thai agricultural laborer at an Israeli cooperative farm on the border called Nativ Haasara. Israel responded within hours, launching air strikes on six targets in Gaza.

Eighty Palestinians and at least one Israeli police officer were injured today during riots in several East Jerusalem neighborhoods (عربي) today, including Ras al-Amud and the Shuafat refugee camp.

The demonstrators, mostly young, threw rocks at police and burned tires; security forces responded by firing rubber bullets and tear gas at the crowds. Many of the patients treated in Ramallah hospitals suffered facial injuries, according to Al-Jazeera. Nearly 100 people were arrested.

We'd like to blog about Joe Biden's Tel Aviv speech, but the White House still hasn't e-mailed a transcript to reporters (perhaps because it was undergoing some last-minute revisions?).

News reports say Biden urged Israel and the Palestinians to begin proximity talks without delay. But they're already in doubt: The Arab League held an emergency meeting in Cairo last night (عربي), and decided to withdraw its support for the talks because of the new construction in Ramot Shlomo.

President Obama's special envoy to the Middle East, George Mitchell, arrived in Ramallah last night to begin "pre-talks" to the "proximity talks" the United States hopes will occur between Israel and the Palestinian Authority, the National reports. You'll be hard pressed to find anyone who has much faith in their ultimate success.

Forensic tests on the body of Mahmoud Al-Mabhouh, the assassinated founder of the Qassam Brigades and a former high-ranking Hamas official, revealed traces of the drug succinylcholine, a muscle relaxant, that had apparently been injected into Mabhouh's thigh, according to Dubai authorities.

The new information on Mabhouh's killing was released today in a statement by deputy Dubai police chief Maj. Gen. Khamis Mattar al-Mazeina, who also said that Mabhouh had been suffocated by a pillow "so that it would seem that his death was natural."