Gilad Shalit - Tag Search

Ha'aretz says a preliminary inquiry -- conducted by Hamas -- concluded that Arab governments, and not the Mossad, are behind the murder of Mahmoud al-Mabhouh in Dubai last month.

... details of a Hamas inquiry passed to Haaretz reveal that Arab states, not Israel, now top the suspect list. Both Hamas and Dubai police say that Mabhouh had enemies across the Middle East, any of whom may have had a motive for his murder.

Obligatory caveat: The paper doesn't say how it obtained the inquiry report. But I've heard several variations of this theory in the last few days -- either that Mabhouh, a weapons smuggler, was killed in an arms deal gone bad; or that one of his many enemies knocked him off.

Gerhard Conrad, one of the two German mediators working with Israel and Hamas to secure a Gilad Shalit deal, is back in Gaza to receive a response (عربي) to Israel's latest offer -- and that response will probably be "no," according to al-Hayat.

Moussa Abu Marzouk, a senior member of Hamas, told the newspaper that Israel's offer is unacceptable.

Fatah operatives "hired a house and cars in the eastern part of Gaza City" as part of a plan to kidnap a "senior" Hamas military official and turn him over to Israel in order to provide intelligence on the location of captured soldier Gilad Shalit, a Hamas security official told Haaretz on Thursday.

But Hamas foiled the plan, hatched by the Israeli intelligence service Shin Bet, according to Abu Abdullah, the head of Hamas internal security.

It makes sense that Israel wants to explore all its options, and there's certainly leverage to be had in knowing as much as possible about Shalit's whereabouts and welfare, but this story begs the question: Would it be worth it for Israel to stage a snatch-and-grab?

Are we finally approaching a resolution to the seemingly never-ending negotiations over a prisoner swap for captured Israel Defense Forces Corporal Gilad Shalit? All signs point to yes, though you'll recall that a deal seemed imminent five months ago.

As Gregg noted earlier today, German mediator Ernst Uhrlau has delivered Israel's latest offer to Hamas, and Hamas has said it will "seriously consider" it. As of early Thursday morning Israel time, we're now seeing reports that Hamas is, according to Haaretz, "likely" to accept Israel's offer, which will involve deporting more than 100 Palestinian prisoners to other countries.

Israeli and Arab media have been abuzz for a week with reports of an imminent deal for Gilad Shalit's release. We've been hearing about possible deals for months, only to see them fall through, so I won't hazard a guess about whether the real thing. But here's where the talks stand.

The German mediator, Ernst Uhrlau, met with Israeli government officials last night to receive their latest offer. Israel is reportedly prepared to release 443 of the 450 prisoners requested by Hamas. But the seven names who didn't make the cut could be deal-breakers: They include Marwan Barghouti, the popular politician; and several senior leaders of the Qassam Brigades, including Ibrahim Hamid and Abdullah Barghouti.

A quick update on the Gilad Shalit deal: Israel is now considering a plan to release Marwan Barghouti into exile, according to al-Hayat (عربي).

There seems to be a great deal of uncertainty about whether Barghouti will even be released, though. His brother said last week that he expects Barghouti be freed; indeed, al-Hayat reported yesterday that he is on the list of 400 prisoners scheduled for release. But Israeli officials are walking back those claims: Vice president Silvan Shalom said recently that Barghouti would not be freed.

The German mediators working with Hamas and Israel also reportedly proposed new terms to both parties. Israel would release a small number of prisoners, but that shortened list would include residents of East Jerusalem, along with senior political figures like Barghouti and leaders of Hamas' military wing.

The negotiations for Gilad Shalit's release are now focused on the names (عربي) of roughly 50 Palestinian prisoners, according to a report in al-Hayat.

Several women are among the 50, including Amneh Muna, a woman who reportedly lured an Israeli man to Ramallah in 2001, where he was murdered.

Israel has already agreed to release some 400 prisoners, according to al-Hayat. Marwan Barghouti is one of them, as are several senior Hamas military leaders, including Ibrahim Hamed and Abdullah Barghouti.

The Israeli government will also reportedly agree to release 17 Israeli Arab prisoners; ten of them will be deported after their release.

The Jerusalem Post reports that Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas' leader in the Gaza Strip, has canceled his trip to Mecca for the Hajj pilgrimage, raising hopes that a prisoner swap deal for captured Israel Defense Forces Corporal Gilad Shalit is going to happen soon.

Anticipation that hundreds of Palestinian prisoners might soon be released in a deal with Israel was so high in Gaza that Haniyeh had been asked to remain in the Gaza Strip to greet the prisoners, said a Hamas legislator in Gaza City.

One thing we haven't really discussed, amidst the latest round of rumors about a possible deal for Gilad Shalit's release, is the political ramifications of such a deal within Israel.

Shalit's plight has taken an outsized role in Israeli politics and public life, so his release, by itself, would give Netanyahu a big political boost. But there's a potential complication: If yesterday's press reports are accurate, Netanyahu will be releasing hundreds of Palestinian militants to secure Shalit's release.

We haven't written about a possible Gilad Shalit deal in, oh, two months, so I think we're long overdue for some speculation.

Reports today say Shalit could be released by the end of the week, in exchange for several hundred Palestinian prisoners. Israel reportedly agreed to free an extra 160 prisoners whose release had been previously vetoed. (That means they're probably militants.) The deal could happen as soon as Friday, the start of Eid al-Adha, according to reports.

Hamas officials are in Cairo today for a meeting with Omar Suleiman, the Egyptian intelligence chief, to discuss the deal.

"We have proven to Hamas that we have changed the equation ... [Operation Cast Lead] has restored Israel's deterrence ... Israel is not a country upon which you fire missiles and it does not respond. It is a country that when you fire on its citizens it responds by going wild - and this is a good thing." - Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, Jan. 12, 2009

"I began to see Gaza as, I suspect, many Gazans do: a floating island, a dystopian Atlantis, drifting farther away from contact with any other society." - Lawrence Wright

I finally got around to reading Wright's big New Yorker take out on the situation in the Gaza Strip and highly recommend it. Though Wright's story is subtitled "What really happened during the Israeli attacks?", the piece is more of a tour de misère of what ails Gaza than an investigation into the veracity of the Goldstone report. The unavoidable conclusion one draws is that Israel is building its own worst enemy.

Many writers (and some of our readers!) have by now concluded that Richard Goldstone is a hopelessly biased, pro-Hamas naif. Today's section (p. 371-401) might not convince them otherwise. But those of you with open minds, read on: Goldstone devotes a number of pages to criticizing Hamas.

The report first spends two pages talking about Gilad Shalit. This section is brief because Shalit's case is so clear-cut: He is a uniformed Israeli soldier, captured by an enemy force during an incursion. He's obviously a prisoner of war, and his detention -- incommunicado, without access to the Red Cross -- violates the Geneva Conventions.

Nineteen Palestinian prisoners returned to the West Bank and Gaza yesterday in exchange for a videotape proving kidnapped Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit is still alive.

The prisoners are all women; all but one of them returned to the West Bank via the Bitunia crossing near Ramallah. Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas is scheduled to meet with those prisoners later today. One of them returned to Gaza via the Erez crossing.

Ha'aretz says the tape shows Shalit "lucid and in good health." Family members say they will make a decision about broadcasting the tape after they've had a chance to watch it.

The so-called P5+1 talks with Iran are underway in Geneva. Journalists are being kept miles away from the hotel hosting the talks, so there is absolutely nothing to report at this point.

The Guardian says most reporters aren't even sure who's there for the talks.

The hotel is also hosting the Muslim World League, an NGO grouping, so there is a certain amount of confusion over who might be an Iranian nuclear expert or a diplomatic observer from the Gulf, and who is here for the cause of unity in the Muslim world.

More details this afternoon, though don't expect any major developments.

Not for Shalit's release, though. Israel will release 20 female prisoners in exchange for a videotape showing Gilad Shalit is still alive. (Any final deal will include a far larger prisoner release.) Abu Obeida, a spokesman for the al-Qassam Brigades, said the tape will "clarify his fate."

"This simple deal is a precursor, God willing, to a comprehensive deal," he said.

Also in Gaza news today: Netanyahu agreed to allow France to build a new hospital in the Gaza Strip using funding from Qatar. Several Gaza hospitals were damaged during Operation Cast Lead last winter.

Hamas leader Khaled Meshal is in Cairo today for talks with Omar Suleiman, the Egyptian intelligence chief. Presumably the talks will focus on Hamas-Fatah reconciliation: Fatah recently agreed to delay elections scheduled for January, and Hamas has yet to respond to that offer.

Suleiman and Meshal will probably also discuss Gilad Shalit. It's been about two weeks since the last report of an imminent deal (which never materialized), so we're about due for another one. Don't expect much real progress, considering all of the false alarms.

I'm curious to hear what our Israeli readers think of this Gideon Levy column in Ha'aretz, in which he argues that Israel's lionization of a few young soldiers -- Gilad Shalit, Asaf Ramon -- "is not an indication of a healthy society." I can't do it justice with an excerpt here, so you should just read the whole thing.

Suicide bombs in Peshawar and Bannu killed more than a dozen people and wounded more than 150.

The Peshawar suicide bomb went off on a busy street near banks and a wedding hall; according to Dawn, the area isn't far from "residential quarters" for military officers.

In Bannu, a suicide bomber targeted a police station, killing at least six people. The Taliban claimed responsibility for that attack. A third attack in Gilgit, a town in northwest Pakistan, injured at least four people, according to wire reports.

As Evan mentioned yesterday, Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak met with Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Cairo yesterday. Their main topic of discussion was Israeli settlements, and it sounds like they had an entirely predictable conversation.

Evan and I have turned a bit skeptical about stories claiming an imminent deal to free Gilad Shalit -- ever since Al-Masry Al-Youm's first report on June 22. But maybe this one's the real deal.

Al-Sharq Al-Awsat reports (عربي) that Mubarak and Netanyahu are "on the verge" of an agreement for Shalit's release. They're scheduled to meet in Cairo tomorrow, and they will reportedly announce the deal after their meeting.

The deal comes after a lot of behind-the-scenes negotiating by Egyptian intelligence chief Omar Suleiman: He recently met with Khaled Meshaal, the head of Hamas' political wing, and Hagai Hadas, Netanyahu's envoy for the Shalit talks.

No word on the exact details of the deal, but presumably it's close to the one we've been hearing about for months.