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Results from Iraq's Kurdish elections were supposed to come out tonight. But Faraj al-Haidari, the head of the Independent High Electoral Commission of Iraq, now says the results won't be released until tomorrow or Wednesday, insha'allah.

An interesting take from The Arabist on why Egypt is abandoning its push for a Palestinian unity government:

... having Palestinian reconciliation now necessarily means presenting the Obama administration with a unity government they are not able to accept (although they should) for domestic political reasons, i.e. the Israel lobbies (I think AIPAC and J Street would sing to the same tune here)... the entire US push for a Middle East Peace Process (MEPP) would fall apart.

That seems a plausible scenario and a smart reading of the behind-the-scenes politics.

I think Michael Slackman is right when he says Arab autocrats aren't too worried about an Iran-style uprising in their own countries. Iran has a much more vibrant civil society than, say, Egypt or Syria. And so it's very hard to imagine hundreds of thousands of Egyptians organizing and taking to the streets -- at least not to protest an election. This kind of mass uprising would require an economic stimulus, something like bread shortages.

Mubarak and Al-Assad and the gang can't be thrilled about a pro-democracy movement in the neighborhood, but I don't think they're too worried. Mostly I imagine they're glad to see their Persian nemesis weakened.

Tehran Bureau reports on the reaction to Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani's letter to Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. It's an interesting bit of palace intrigue, though I wonder how much impact it will really have just 12 hours before the polls open.

Lots of election-related news coming out of Iran this morning, just two days before the vote. First, an interesting story about late-night campaign rallies in Tehran, from the excellent new site Tehran Bureau (h/t Arabist for the link):

There's a carnival like-feeling to the proceedings. After so long without an outlet, Tehran's youth are coming out en masse.

[..] It can't be defined as simply dissatisfaction with the Islamic system, since there are vast numbers of Ahmadinejad supporters who believe Iran, as it is, is just fine. Last night I rode with some of them in a back of a truck plastered with the incumbent's photos. These were members of the Basij, young men in their twenties, who are the new generation of the revolution. Their group has years of organizing experience on their side, and when needed, they have weapons. Both these elements the more reformed-minded campaigns lack.

The writer at Tehran Bureau is predicting some of these rallies will turn violent over the next two days.

Slow going this morning, according to reports from Al-Jazeera, The National and the BBC. But no allegations of misconduct -- at least not beyond the rampant vote-buying that we already know about.

If you haven't read it yet, Evan's pre-election post analyzes the stakes and the key players.

We tackled this question briefly last month, but it's worth a longer analysis. The Lebanese elections on Sunday could present the Obama administration with one of its first major Middle East policy decisions.

The Hizballah coalition is expected to win some seats in the Lebanese parliament after Sunday's elections; it could even gain a narrow majority. And last month Vice President Joe Biden suggested that outcome would lead the United States to cut back on Lebanese military aid.

There are some obvious reasons not to send military aid to a country whose government is run by Hizballah and its allies. But I don't think any of those reasons are particularly compelling.

A little more fallout from this week's contentious presidential debate in Iran:

[Ayatollah Ali Khamenei] also demanded calmer exchanges between presidential candidates after a fiery televised debate on Wednesday.

Incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad accused his rivals of corruption, while his leading opponent, Mir-Hossein Mousavi, said Mr Ahmadinejad's foreign policy was undermining the dignity of the Iranian nation.

Mr Khamenei warned candidates that they should not let their differences of opinion lead to chaos.

That kind of language would be a little unusual in any presidential debate (can you imagine Barack Obama accusing John McCain of corruption on national television?). But Khamenei is obviously concerned about it.

Apparently things got a little heated in Tehran during a presidential debate last night:

Mir Hossein Mousavi, a former prime minister, accused Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the current president, of driving the country towards "dictatorship" during the one-on-one televised broadcast debate.

[..] Al Jazeera's Ali Reza Ronagi in Tehran said the debate had been highly anticipated in Iran and that it was likely to have an impact on the election.

The American idea of Iran -- or at least the prevailing one in Washington, it seems -- is inextricably linked to Ahmadinejad. And he certainly has a strong base of support. But it's important to remember that, for some Iranians, Ahmadinejad is seen as an embarrassment and a failure. The Iranian economy isn't doing well; the country is more isolated than ever thanks to Ahmadinejad's hard-line foreign policy. (Any of this sound familiar?)

It will be interesting to see what happens on June 12, to say the least.

The BBC takes a look at the stakes in Lebanon's upcoming elections. Short summary: They could be a problem for the Obama administration, because Hizballah is expected to gain a lot of political power.

Mr Biden also warned of likely consequences if Hezbollah and its allies were to prevail in the 7 June poll and form the kind of government Washington would frown on.

The administration, he said, "will evaluate the shape of our assistance programmes based on the composition of the new government and the policies it advocates.

There are obvious parallels to the 2006 Palestinian elections, which Hamas won by an overwhelming margin. The U.S. responded by slapping economic sanctions on the Palestinian Authority, a punishment that did little except undercut the Bush administration's rhetoric about the importance of democracy in the Middle East.

Obama campaigned on a more pragmatic foreign policy, which would suggest he won't be so quick to cut ties with Lebanon. Doing so would also undermine his own call for more engagement with the Middle East. Lebanon is a deeply dysfunctional state, to be sure, but it's also the closest thing to a real democracy in the Arab world.

But he will face a lot of pressure to punish Hizballah -- which is a hard-line terrorist group, after all, along with a political party and social-services organization.