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The Afghan Surge

Kandaharis probably do not care what you call the operation

Evan did a comprehensive roundup of the news from Afghan president Hamid Karzai's visit to Washington this week. Just one thing to add from me.

I have a post over on Al-Jazeera's Web site looking at Afghanistan's ongoing governance problems, none of which received much (public) attention during Karzai's visit. One thing I couldn't really address, for space reasons, is how these problems influence perceptions of the upcoming Kandahar campaign/operation/process/whatever we're calling it these days.

The Punditocracy

Peter Galbraith : 2010 :: Matthew Hoh : 2009

Peter Galbraith is a stunningly corrupt and currently unemployed ex-diplomat who maintained a hidden multi-million dollar financial interest in Iraqi Kurdistan while he was helping to draft the Iraqi constitution. More recently, he spent maybe four months as the United Nations' deputy special representative to Afghanistan; he was forced out in September, and for that he (justifiably) maintains a grudge against Afghan president Hamid Karzai.

You'd know none of this from the media attention Galbraith is getting, though, since he's universally presented as an authoritative and moral voice.

Down the Memory Hole

Abbas to Fatah officials: Burn your sex tapes

Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas wants Palestinian Authority and Fatah officials to burn their sex tapes (عربي).

If you haven't been following the PA sex scandal: Abbas' chief of staff, Rafiq al-Husseini, was allegedly caught on tape soliciting sex from a female job applicant. The tape was made by a former Palestinian intelligence officer, who said he wanted to expose corruption in the PA, and surfaced after it was aired on an Israeli television station. That led an official inquiry and charges of corruption.

Constitutional Crisis

Pakistan's attorney general resigns, alleging obstruction of presidential investigation

When Pakistani Attorney General Anwar Mansoor became his country's top law enforcement officer in December, it was a tough moment: That month, Pakistan's Supreme Court struck down the two-year-old "National Reconciliation Ordinance," which had thrown legal cover over potentially hundreds of the country's elite for crimes ranging from corruption to murder between 1986 and 1999.

The Court, led by Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry, also ordered the revival of a raft of cases that had been abandoned at the onset of the ordinance, putting Pakistan's power brokers -- some still serving in government -- in potential jeopardy.

Mansoor, it appears, was unable to push through the opposition that would naturally rise up in opposition to such investigations.

In Jordan, signs of potential reform

The Jordanian government on Thursday arrested two former executives of the only petroleum refinery in the country -- one of them a former finance minister -- as well as a current economic adviser to the prime minister and a wealthy businessman, levying bribery and abuse of public office charges against the four men.

Adel Qudah, the ex-finance minister and former chairman of the Jordan Petroleum Refinery Company, is the first former minister to face corruption charges in Jordan's history. The arrests represent the first real push by new Prime Minister Samir Rifai, who promised after being appointed in December that he would tackle corruption, wrote Naseem Tarawnah of the Black Iris of Jordan blog.

Washington in Sana'a

Kagan: U.S. isn't fighting enough insurgencies

Frederick Kagan is such a firm believer in counterinsurgency doctrine that he wants the United States to get involved in fighting pre-existing insurgencies. The Wall Street Journal published an op-ed this morning, which Kagan co-authored with Christopher Harnisch, urging the U.S. to get involved in Yemen's intractable Huthi insurgency.

Feeling litigious in the land of the two rivers

Iraq's commerce minister, Safaldin al-Safi, told reporters today that his country will file lawsuits against foreign companies for their alleged fraud under the United Nations oil-for-food program.

Safi didn't name the companies, or say how much money the Iraqi government is seeking, but the French newspaper Liberation reported today that the government wants $10 billion from 93 companies. The list of companies includes Renault, the French automaker, and BNP Paribas.

The Simmering Insurgency

Maliki: Security forces helped Baghdad bombers

Iraqi security forces were once again involved in a deadly bombing in Baghdad, according to Iraqi prime minister Nouri al-Maliki.

Maliki called a press conference today to discuss last week's massive bombings in Baghdad. He said at least 45 people from three branches of the security forces aided the attack, though he wouldn't name which parts of the ISF were involved. The prime minister offered a reward of more than $80,000 for information about future bombings. Previous mass-casualty bombings in Iraq have also been linked to corruption.

He also said the bombings would not delay the U.S. withdrawal from Iraq.

One of McClatchy's Iraqi bloggers posted a slightly more personal take on the press conference. Maliki apparently described the bombing as a "security breach," not a breakdown in security -- a trivialization of an attack that killed more than 100 people.

Department of Hagiography

Olmert: Abbas lost an "enormous opportunity"

The Australian ran a heavily sympathetic 3,200-word profile of former Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert over the weekend. (It's truly one of the most lopsided articles I've ever read.)

Olmert's positions are fairly predictable. He defends the 2006 war in Lebanon and the 2009 war in Gaza; he calls the Goldstone Report a "moral indignity"; he speaks highly of both Benjamin Netanyahu and Mahmoud Abbas.

A New Afghan Strategy

Gordon Brown's flexible timetable

I'm not sure what to make of Gordon Brown's big foreign policy speech yesterday. On the one hand, as Steve Hynd notes, he's clearly calling for a timetable in Afghanistan. Brown suggested a NATO summit in London next year to establish a timetable for transferring districts in Afghanistan to the Afghan government's control. But it's a loose timetable, and one that could still leave NATO troops in Afghanistan for years to come.

A New Afghan Strategy

Kilcullen on COIN and the adaptive Taliban

David Kilcullen, the Australian counterinsurgency guru who advised Gen. David Petraeus in Iraq, gave an hour-long talk tonight at Johns Hopkins' School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). The talk was broadly about counterinsurgency in U.S. foreign policy, but Kilcullen spent a good deal of time on the big story of the day: Afghanistan.

Kilcullen told The Guardian last week that Obama should either go big or go home to avoid a "Suez-like" disaster in Afghanistan. He elaborated on those comments tonight, explaining why he felt the middle ground was so dangerous. And he argued -- perhaps inadvertently -- that the strategies reportedly being considered by the Obama administration move too slowly, and give the Taliban time to adapt.

As Osmani goes, so goes Afghanistan?

A little follow up on our earlier post about Afghanistan's potential special corruption courts: The Christian Science Monitor interviewed Mohammed Yusin Osmani, President Hamid Karzai's anti-corruption czar, and found that progress is still slow, nearly a year after Osmani's office was created.

Rent-a-President

Zardari: Money makes the world go round

Finally finished reading Sy Hersh's latest New Yorker piece about the Pakistani nuclear arsenal. I'm working on a longer post about it, but I had to highlight this quote, from Pakistani president Asif Ali Zardari (emphasis mine):

His long-term solution, Zardari said, was to provide new business opportunities in Swat and turn the Taliban into entrepreneurs. "Money is the best incentive," he said.

If anyone would know that, it's Zardari!

A New Afghan Strategy

Leverage, leaks, and Christmas cards

There's some speculation in Washington that Obama might stop in Afghanistan on his way home from Asia to deliver an ultimatum to Hamid Karzai: Clean up your government, or else.

I would emphasize the word "speculation." It's clear that Karzai's corruption and the lack of a U.S. exit strategy have become two of the most divisive issues in the Afghanistan debate. But it's not clear where Obama stands on those issues: Will he commit more troops to Afghanistan without a clear plan for getting out?

Mr. Ten Percent

Asif Ali Zardari, the famously (allegedly) corrupt President of Pakistan, took $4.3 million worth of bribes for helping the French sell three submarines to his country in the mid-1990s, according to a report in the Pakistani press.

The three Agosta 90 submarines were worth roughly $1.24 billion (€825 million), according to the Nation, which cites the Pakistani French daily newspaper Liberation (Français).

It's a little hard to make out the details of how this bit of news surfaced, but it appears that there is an ongoing legal investigation by a French magistrate into a 2002 terrorist attack that killed 11 employees of the French defense company DCN, who were in Karachi working on the subs.

The Thanksgiving Surge

McClatchy: 34,000 new troops for Afghanistan

The gang over at McClatchy reports that Obama is leaning towards sending 34,000 new troops to Afghanistan. The official announcement will probably come after the president returns from Asia on Nov. 19. (That means Obama will announce his decision around the Thanksgiving holiday, when Congress and much of official Washington is on vacation and the country's attention is focused on turkey and the Detroit Lions.)

A New Afghan Strategy

Headlines that worry me

From AFP: "Iraq surge could be model for Afghan war: US admiral."

I'm sure you're all sick of hearing me explain why the surge is not yet a success story (most recently here) and why it's a faulty model for Afghanistan, so I won't repeat myself.

Department of Wishful Thinking

Karzai: Ponies for everyone

Hamid Karzai vows to fight corruption in Afghanistan and create an inclusive government. The Guardian, analyzing Karzai's sudden fondness for transparency, dryly notes:

Karzai echoed the commitments that his western backers had pushed him to accept, including appointing a clean government and making progress in peace negotiations with the Taliban.

Standing next to Karzai as he made this announcement was Muhammad Qasim Fahim, one of his vice presidents -- and a notorious Afghan drug lord. (No word on whether Rashid Dostum was in the audience, too.)

Reconciliation in Iraq

Could Iraq's parliament delay Kirkuk elections?

Iraqi MPs tell the BBC they're still not ready to vote on an election law. A vote could be held in several days, they say, but "several sticking points remain."

The issue of voter registration rolls in Kirkuk is the biggest one. MPs are still trying to reach a consensus between several competing proposals (2004 voter rolls, 2009 voter rolls, some mix of the two), according to Aswat al-Iraq.

Iraqi security forces: Incompetent or corrupt?

11 Iraqi officers, and 50 policemen, have been arrested in connection with this weekend's ministry bombings in Baghdad.

The detainees include four senior army officers, including the chief of police in Salhiyah, the Baghdad neighborhood which includes the justice ministry (one of Sunday's targets). Also arrested were the commanders of 15 security checkpoints in Salhiyah.

B'Tselem: Settlements occupy 42 percent of West Bank

Ben-Eliezer makes "secret trip" to Turkey: Israeli TV

CENTCOM talking sense on Hamas and Hizballah

Al-Akhbar: Our weekly brief

Peace Processing

Talking about direct talks: Netanyahu returns to the White House

Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu delivering a statement in Jerusalem on July 1, 2010. (Photo: AFP)
US president Barack Obama will use a White House meeting with Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu to push for an extended West Bank settlement freeze. If Netanyahu doesn't offer one - and the domestic politics are quite difficult for him - it's hard to see any possibility of direct talks with the Palestinian Authority later this year.

The Afghan Surge

Obama's southern strategy

Gen. David Petraeus testifying on Capitol Hill. (Photo: Reuters)
The president's decision to nominate Gen. David Petraeus as the commander of US and NATO forces in Afghanistan won't mean a major change in strategy. But there are mounting reasons for pessimism about current policy, particularly the relentless focus on southern Afghanistan. The deployment of tens of thousands of additional troops to Kandahar and Helmand serves few NATO objectives.

Freedom Flotilla Killings

Anticlimax: How much did the flotilla raid really change regional politics?

A demonstration in London against the Israeli attack on the Gaza-bound flotilla. (Photo: AFP)
It has accelerated Israel's isolation from several of its neighbors and allies; it has sharpened divisions within Turkish domestic politics; it has deepened perceptions that the Obama administration as too close to Israel. And it seems to have had a remarkably minor impact on Palestinian domestic politics.