Bernard Kouchner - Tag Search

Nuclear Negotiations

Analysis: Political theater in Tehran

The Iranian regime's announcement that it plans to build ten new uranium enrichment plants prompted a surprised reaction from the West. French foreign minister Bernard Kouchner described it as "very dangerous"; Russian officials say they're "seriously concerned" with the announcement.

That was clearly the goal: As Julian Borger wrote this morning in The Guardian, Iran doesn't actually have the capacity to build those plants. The Christian Science Monitor quotes one expert who says the plan, announced yesterday by Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, will take decades. It will also be hugely expensive; Iran, already facing massive budget deficits, can ill afford to spend billions more on uranium enrichment.

So the regime's threat, for now, is an empty one, an act of political theater intended to provoke a reaction.

A New Afghan Strategy

Headlines that worry me

From AFP: "Iraq surge could be model for Afghan war: US admiral."

I'm sure you're all sick of hearing me explain why the surge is not yet a success story (most recently here) and why it's a faulty model for Afghanistan, so I won't repeat myself.

Monday morning roundup

Iran's foreign minister, Manouchehr Mottaki, says his country may ship at least part of its uranium stockpile to Russia for further enrichment.

That would mean the Iranian government is willing to at least partially accept the draft IAEA deal announced last week. But Mottaki said Iran will also continue to enrich its own uranium. The IAEA deal is designed to buy time for further negotiations by temporarily taking away Iran's capacity to enrich uranium.

French foreign minister Bernard Kouchner said as much today during an interview with the Daily Telegraph. Kouchner said Israel "will not accept" an Iranian bomb, and said the IAEA deal is designed to head off a potential Israeli attack.

Kouchner uneasy about Iran gas embargo

I'm glad to see French foreign minister Bernard Kouchner talking sense on the proposed embargo on Iranian gas imports.

"I think this is a bit dangerous," Mr. Kouchner said in an interview here, where he is attending the United Nations General Assembly. A blockade would harm the Iranian people, he said, "and mainly poor people."

"This is a choice; we have to study it also," he said. "But it is not my personal favorite at all."

The embargo idea is still taken seriously in D.C.'s foreign policy community -- it was endorsed just yesterday in an op-ed in the Washington Post. But I haven't talked to a single actual Iran expert who thinks it would influence the regime's behavior. In the short term, it would increase fuel prices and hurt Iran's poor; in the long term, it would impel Iran to build more refineries and achieve self-sufficiency.

Good sourcing

Ha'aretz reports that an Israeli radio station said a Lebanese newspaper interviewed Lebanese diplomats who told it that the French foreign minister told them that U.S. officials told him that they told Israel to freeze settlement construction within six months.

Story like that's gotta be true.

B'Tselem: Settlements occupy 42 percent of West Bank

Ben-Eliezer makes "secret trip" to Turkey: Israeli TV

CENTCOM talking sense on Hamas and Hizballah

Al-Akhbar: Our weekly brief

Peace Processing

Talking about direct talks: Netanyahu returns to the White House

Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu delivering a statement in Jerusalem on July 1, 2010. (Photo: AFP)
US president Barack Obama will use a White House meeting with Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu to push for an extended West Bank settlement freeze. If Netanyahu doesn't offer one - and the domestic politics are quite difficult for him - it's hard to see any possibility of direct talks with the Palestinian Authority later this year.

The Afghan Surge

Obama's southern strategy

Gen. David Petraeus testifying on Capitol Hill. (Photo: Reuters)
The president's decision to nominate Gen. David Petraeus as the commander of US and NATO forces in Afghanistan won't mean a major change in strategy. But there are mounting reasons for pessimism about current policy, particularly the relentless focus on southern Afghanistan. The deployment of tens of thousands of additional troops to Kandahar and Helmand serves few NATO objectives.

Freedom Flotilla Killings

Anticlimax: How much did the flotilla raid really change regional politics?

A demonstration in London against the Israeli attack on the Gaza-bound flotilla. (Photo: AFP)
It has accelerated Israel's isolation from several of its neighbors and allies; it has sharpened divisions within Turkish domestic politics; it has deepened perceptions that the Obama administration as too close to Israel. And it seems to have had a remarkably minor impact on Palestinian domestic politics.