Update, 9:51 p.m.: Well, maybe not. ABC News and several other outlets are now reporting that the man arrested wasn't Gadahn, but rather "Abu Yahya Mujahideen al-Adam," described as an Egyptian-born U.S. citizen from Pennsylvania, described as a "close associate" of Osama bin Laden.
Except... I've never heard of the guy. Nor have several counterterrorism analysts I asked tonight. A search for that name, in both Arabic and English, yields nothing (except for today's news reports).
Well -- not exactly. The Palestinian Authority announced today (عربي) that it arrested six "al-Qaeda sympathizers"; the men reportedly had a cache of explosives and were planning to attack targets in the West Bank.
But Brig. Gen. Ibrahim Ramadan, the head of preventive security in Jenin, said that men have no known connections to al-Qaeda. They're allegedly inspired by Osama bin Laden -- but they were operating autonomously.
A preface: I disagree with the whole idea of indefinite detention. It's a moral and legal disgrace, and it's incompatible with American ideals. That goes for Guantanamo Bay -- and for President Obama's plan to close the prison and replace it with a Guantanamo-by-another-name. So none of this should be read as an endorsement of Obama's plan, which I consider a violation of his campaign promises.
That said: I think replacing Guantanamo with "Guantanamo North" could deprive the prison of much of its symbolic value.
Dennis Blair, the U.S. director of national intelligence, delivered his annual "threat assessment" to Congress (pdf) this afternoon.
The 70-word executive summary -- from the Middle East/South Asia sections, at least: Al-Qaeda and its offshoots still want to attack the U.S. (big surprise); Hizballah does not want to attack the U.S. (more on that to come); Iran wants "the option" to develop a nuclear weapon (note the cautious wording); Iraq is hopeful, and its challenges are mainly political and economic; Afghanistan will be a tough slog; Pakistan still hasn't figured out counterinsurgency.
This is a guest post from Andrew Lebovich, a research associate at the New America Foundation, where he focuses on counterterrorism and Middle East/North Africa issues.
A recent Fox News blog post advertising the possibility of a "new ally in the war against al-Qaeda" stopped me dead in my tracks. The article suggests that the U.S. government ally with Kabyles in Algeria (a Berber people with their own language and culture) in order to fight off al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM).
In particular, the author cites terrorism analyst Walid Phares' view on why the Kabyles would be good allies in the fight against al-Qaeda. Phares makes a few rather egregious claims to support this idea, noting that Kabyles, "are mostly secular and believe in democracy, and could become an efficient ally against the Jihadists." He also calls the Kabyles, "Indians of North Africa" and said that in order to fight al Qaeda and maintain our commitment to "democratic values and fundamental rights," we must support Kabyle desires for autonomy.
There are more problems with this post than I can deal with at the moment, but several jump out at me.
(Updated below) Osama bin Laden released a new videotape this morning (عربي) in which he claims responsibility for the failed Christmas Day bombing attack and threatened more attacks on the United States unless "our brothers in Gaza... have security."
(Updated below) Wire services are buzzing this morning with news that Turkish police arrested 120 alleged al-Qaeda members during simultaneous predawn raids in 16 provinces.
Al-Qaeda has occasionally attacked foreign targets in Turkey -- the 2003 bombings in Istanbul, the 2008 U.S. consulate attack -- and police occasionally round up small cells. Today's raid is unusually large; unnamed security sources told the BBC police seized weapons, fake identity cards and "camouflage clothing."
Jordanian authorities have arrested a taxi driver in connection with yesterday's bombing near the Allenby Bridge, according to Ha'aretz. Police haven't released any details about the arrest.
The blast -- the first roadside bomb attack in Jordan -- left a crater in the road and damaged a highway guardrail, but caused no injuries. Jordanian police say the bomb was detonated remotely; Israeli media say it missed the convoy of Israeli diplomats because it was detonated at the wrong time.
There's a lot of speculation in the Israeli and Jordanian press that the attack was carried out by al-Qaeda, but it's honestly too early to draw any conclusions.
Bill Roggio, writing yesterday about the death of a Jordanian al-Qaeda member in a U.S. airstrike in Pakistan, described the Muslim Brotherhood as a "gateway to al-Qaeda."
The Muslim Brotherhood advocates the imposition of Islamic State using political means. Disaffected members of the MB who think that method is too soft often join more radical groups, such as Hamas, al Qaeda, etc. The Egyptian Islamic Group broke off from the MB.
Statistically speaking, if the Brotherhood is a gateway to terrorism, it's a damn ineffective one. The Muslim Brotherhood has had millions of members throughout its history; only a small fraction of them joined radical groups.
Bruce Hoffman takes to the Washington Post op-ed page this morning to warn of al-Qaeda's "new grand strategy." Hoffman, if you're unfamiliar, is a Georgetown University professor and one of the chief proponents of the "command-and-control" theory of al-Qaeda, which argues that the central outfit in Afghanistan and Pakistan exercises tight control over its offshoots.
Hoffman makes a few good points in his op-ed, particularly his first one, that al-Qaeda is focused on "overwhelming, distracting and exhausting us." Other writers -- Patrick Porter, for example, and Jarret Brachman -- have made similar points in recent days.
The U.S. and U.K. have both closed their embassies in Sana'a, citing unspecified threats from al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula.
Embassy officials won't say how long the closures will last, and it's unclear whether they're linked to a specific threat, or just generalized concern -- remember, AQAP's claim of responsibility for the failed Christmas Day bombing called for attacks against all "crusaders" on the Arabian Peninsula.
A statement on the embassy's Web site attributes the closure to "ongoing threats," which would seem to suggest there isn't a specific threat.
One thing I've been wondering, as I read hundreds of headlines about the link between al-Qaeda and the underpants bomber, is how useful it is to talk about "al-Qaeda" as a blanket entity.
It's true that there are linkages between "al-Qaeda Central" -- the cadre of hardened fighters huddled between Afghanistan and Pakistan -- and al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. The former provides ideological inspiration to the latter; AQAP leaders have pledged allegiance to Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri.
Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula issued a statement today claiming responsibility for the Northwest Airlines flight 253 plot.
The full statement -- widely available in Arabic on the jihadi forums, and in PDF format on Jihadica -- recounts the details of the attack, all of them already available in open source media. It dubs the attack a failure because of technical problems. And it claims that the plot was retaliation for the U.S.-backed airstrikes (and the U.S. cruise missile strike) in Abyan province last week.
It also includes a photo of the bomber, Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, taken in front of a flag that appears to bear the logo of Sada al-Malahim ("Echo of Glorious Battles"), the main mouthpiece of Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula.
The photo doesn't appear to be doctored; it is the strongest evidence that the statement is legitimate, and that Abdulmutallab was actually working with Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula.
Last word I'll write about the Detroit plot today, I promise. There's other stuff happening in the Middle East, much of it more interesting (and the subject of more media attention) than a lone idiot with an incendiary device.
But this I couldn't resist. Sen. Joe Lieberman took to the airwaves this morning to declare Yemen "tomorrow's war," and endorsed preemptive military action as the solution. It can't be tomorrow's war if it's already today's war! George Orwell would be proud.
By now you've surely heard of the Northwest Airlines flight 253 plot, in which a Nigerian man, Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, tried to blow up an international flight to Detroit using a vial of PETN, a powerful high explosive.
I was on the road all weekend without Wi-Fi access, so this is my first opportunity to respond to the story. I've been frustrated with the hysterical and ill-informed reporting on this plot, so let's try to clear up a few points.
Journalists lately have written a lot of worried trend stories about Internet-based Islamic radicalization. It's not a new phenomenon -- but it feels new to a lot of reporters who haven't really been paying attention for the last eight years. The David Headley case and the "Alexandria Five" have piqued their interest.
And they've sparked a debate in Washington about whether the U.S. needs to do something about jihadi forums, according to Time's Mark Thompson, who rounds up the debate in a story today (h/t Marc Lynch on Twitter).
Two men claiming to be al-Qaeda members made a public appearance at an anti-government rally in Yemen yesterday.
The rally was held in Abyan province, at the site of a suspected al-Qaeda camp bombed by Yemeni jets last week with support from the United States. Witnesses say the raid killed dozens of civilians; Yemeni newspapers call it the "Abyan massacre."
"We carry bombs for God's enemies," said one of the alleged al-Qaeda members.
"Soldiers, you should know that we do not want to fight you. There is no problem between you and us. Our problem is with America and its allies. Beware taking the side of America."
Al-Jazeera broadcast video of the unmasked man, who stood next to a man carrying an assault rifle.
A reader e-mailed me yesterday to take issue with my critical assessment of the Yemeni and American decision to "do something" about al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). I don't have permission to reprint her e-mail yet, but to paraphrase, she wrote that AQAP is a serious problem that should be dealt with.
I agree! I think most people would agree, in fact, that AQAP's rise in Yemen is worrisome. It threatens Yemen, her neighbors, and the West.
If we agree on that, though, the question becomes "what should we do about AQAP?" And the answer is not the kind of over-the-horizon cruise-missile counterterrorism that was on display last week. (Didn't we all agree that was a bad strategy shortly after 9/11?)
The Yemeni military has stepped up its attacks on al-Qaeda over the last 72 hours -- a reflection of increased American pressure. And several reports say Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh approved a U.S. cruise missile strike against a suspected al-Qaeda target inside Yemen.
Yemeni troops, backed by helicopters and bombers, launched two raids on Thursday -- one in the southern province of Abyan, and the other in Arhab, a district north of the capital. Roughly 30 people were killed in the fighting, according to the government.
Witnesses in Abyan put the death toll higher: They say 50 people were killed in the attack, many of them civilians, because jets mistakenly bombed a civilian neighborhood.
After the jump: An embedded version of al-Qaeda's latest video, narrated by Adam Gadahn. The introduction is in Arabic, but Gadahn's actual statement is in English. (If you want to download the whole video, in MPG format, it's here.)
