Earlier this week, Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh extended an offer of negotiation to southern separatists who have grown increasingly strident about their grievances with Sana'a, but he also sounded a warning.
"I am certain the flags of separation will burn in the days and weeks ahead," Saleh said.
With thousands gathering across southern Yemen to protest today, Saleh got his chance to demonstrate the hard side of the government's carrot-and-stick approach.
Jeffrey Feltman, the U.S. undersecretary of state for Near Eastern Affairs, is in Yemen this week meeting with officials from the Yemeni government. Feltman delivered a letter from President Obama to Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh. The text of the letter isn't public, but it reportedly pledged continued financial and military aid for the Saleh government.
The Riyadh conference on Yemen wrapped up this morning with lots of promises and well-meaning speeches -- but very few firm commitments. And the conference was quickly overshadowed, inside Yemen and around the region, by the deteriorating situation in southern Yemen, where the government has declared a state of emergency.
The Yemeni government presented several papers in Riyadh (عربي) outlining how it will use the roughly $44 billion in foreign aid it hopes to receive over the next five years. One of them outlines how Yemen's government will distribute aid; another talks about Yemen's grim long-term socioeconomic picture (rapidly growing population, dwindling oil reserves, a depleted water table).
Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh is in Riyadh today pleading for money meeting with his Saudi counterpart to discuss issues of regional importance.
Saleh's visit is a precursor to the "Riyadh conference" on Saturday, which will involve Yemen, the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council, and U.S. and European representatives. Yemen is hoping to raise a lot of money from international donors -- on the order of $40 billion over the next five years, according to one diplomat -- and Saleh hopes much of that will come from the GCC.
Following up on this morning's post: Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh has announced a cease-fire with the Huthi rebels. Saleh read a decree announcing the truce on state television; it takes effect at midnight Yemen time (2100 GMT).
The state-run Al-Thawra has more details (عربي) on Saleh's decree. It's similar to the proposals that were reported this morning -- the "six conditions," several parliamentary committees to monitor their implementation, etc.
The big question now, of course, is whether it will hold. The north has not been quiet for long: AFP reported fighting late last night (عربي) in Amran province, which is due south of Saada province; 12 Yemeni soldiers and 24 rebels were reportedly killed following a surprise attack by the Huthis. And the last cease-fire, announced in September, collapsed after about 24 hours.
I tweeted yesterday about some new reports of an imminent cease-fire between the Yemeni government and the Huthi rebels.
Those reports have multiplied in the last 24 hours or so: Wire services report that both sides exchanged proposals this week, and Al-Jazeera's Hashem Ahelbarra says an envoy from Sana'a is meeting today with Abdel Malik al-Huthi, the rebel leader.
Hard to tell, as usual, exactly what's happening up in Saada province, but Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh is signalling -- in word and in deed -- that he's not terribly interested in a cease-fire with the Huthi rebels.
16 rebels were killed in Saada earlier this week, according to state media reports; the dead reportedly included a number of "leaders," but the government hasn't identified any of them. The army says it also destroyed a vehicle carrying ammunition to the rebels (عربي), and seized several farms which were being used as rebel hideouts.
At least 20 people have been killed in Saada province in fighting between the Huthi rebels and the Yemeni army over the last 24 hours. Saudi Arabia says it is no longer receiving fire from "Huthi snipers" -- a mildly encouraging sign for the Huthi-Saudi cease-fire -- but the Yemeni army is still fighting heavily.
Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh is moving the goalposts.
Saleh rejected the proposed cease-fire from the Huthi rebels, according to Yemen's state-run SABA news service (عربي). Abdul Malik al-Huthi, the rebel leader, agreed to the five cease-fire conditions previously established by Saleh's government -- but now Saleh says there is a sixth: The rebels must return Saudi Arabian hostages and vow not to attack Saudi territory.
Abdul Malik al-Huthi, the leader of the rebels, says he's willing to abide by the five conditions for a cease-fire established by the Yemeni government.
But don't get excited. This is, by my (unofficial) count, either the third or fourth time the Huthis have made such an offer. It's the second in just four weeks: The Huthis said on Jan. 4 that they were willing to immediately launch a dialogue with the government.
Obviously none of those prior offers have led to a cease-fire. And this one seems destined for the same fate: There's no evidence the rebels coordinated with the Yemeni government, and a one-sided offer to restart talks doesn't mean much. Huthi's offer also depends on the Yemeni army halting its operations; that seems unlikely, since we're still seeing near-daily reports of army operations in Saada province.
The five conditions, by the way, are the removal of all roadblocks; the surrender of remote mountain bases in Saada; a withdrawal from local government buildings; the return of all seized military equipment; and the release of all kidnapped civilians and captured soldiers.
(Updated below) The U.S. Defense Department is considering a counterterrorism fund (عربي) for Yemen, modeled off a similar fund for Pakistan.
The Pakistani fund, known as the Coalition Support Fund, reimburses the Pakistani government for its support of U.S. counterterrorism activities. The U.S. has provided about $7.6 billion under the CSF since 2002. Yemen's fund would be similar: The army and security services would receive annual payments for operations against al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula.
Abdul Malik al-Huthi, the leader of Yemen's Huthi rebels, has reportedly announced a cease-fire with Saudi Arabia, according to the Saudi-owned Al-Arabiya (عربي).
The rebels reportedly agreed to stop fighting the Saudi army, and to withdraw completely from Saudi territory. The army and the Huthis have traded control of a number of villages and border regions in recent months, particularly around the area of Jebel Dokhan.
Update: Here's a link to the memo on HRW's Web site.
Original post: I'm not sure if it's available online yet, but Human Rights Watch sent us an advance copy (pdf) of a new memo, Seven Principles for Effective International Engagement in Yemen, which they're releasing ahead of next week's London conference on Yemen. We're posting it here as a PDF file.
The memo covers everything from development aid to the importance of closing Guantanamo Bay, but the most important section -- from my perspective -- deals with the human rights abuses committed by the Yemeni government in its conflicts with Huthi rebels in the north and separatists in the south.
(Updated below) Yemen's foreign minister, Abu Bakr al-Qirbi, admitted yesterday that his government can't provide any proof that last week's airstrike killed Qasim al-Rimi, al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula's military commander. Qirbi said the strike was carried out in a remote part of Yemen that is difficult for the army or police to access.
A group of 150 Yemeni scholars and clerics signed a statement calling for jihad (عربي) in the event of a U.S. invasion of their country (The Guardian says only 15 signatories, which I suspect is a typo).
Frederick Kagan is such a firm believer in counterinsurgency doctrine that he wants the United States to get involved in fighting pre-existing insurgencies. The Wall Street Journal published an op-ed this morning, which Kagan co-authored with Christopher Harnisch, urging the U.S. to get involved in Yemen's intractable Huthi insurgency.
The Yemeni military killed 19 Huthi rebels, and arrested at least two dozen more, during overnight operations in Saada province.
The army moved door-to-door in Saada's old city, where rebels have reportedly taken shelter in civilian homes, according to the military. Officials didn't say whether the offensive -- "Operation Blow to the Head" -- caused any civilian casualties.
The raid was a response to heavy fighting in Saada on Sunday, which killed eight soldiers and 17 rebels, according to Mareb Press (عربي). The Huthis claim to have seized weapons from Yemeni army posts during the fighting, though those reports can't be confirmed.
As Brian O'Neill said over the weekend: we have entered very strange times, indeed. First, Saturday Night Live parodied Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh.
And today, we learn that President Barack Obama discussed his plans for Yemen and Somalia in an interview with... People Magazine. When was the last time Yemen made an appearance in People?
Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh did an interview with Abu Dhabi TV last night and said he'd be willing to talk with anyone -- even the Huthis and al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula -- provided they lay down their arms first.
The interview is getting a lot of attention from Western and Arabic media. The former, needless to say, are focused on the AQAP dimension of Saleh's call for dialogue. Arabic media take a wider view: Al-Jazeera, for example, headlines its story (عربي) "Saleh renews the call for a comprehensive dialogue in Yemen."
Mark Landler has a decent piece in the New York Times about how little influence the United States actually has in Yemen. (I do wish reporters would stop using phrases like "Yemen as a hothouse for Islamic terrorism"; analogizing al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula to tomatoes is not very useful.)
His arguments are broadly similar to those we've made in recent months: The U.S. provides little non-military aid to Yemen, and has little capacity to force Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh to deliver services or improve governance. U.S. policy in Yemen is increasingly driven by the Pentagon.
"If they see David Petraeus more than Kathleen Sebelius, then we have a problem," said [former U.S. ambassador to Yemen Barbara Bodine], referring to the military commander and the secretary of health and human services, respectively.
One addendum: Landler doesn't mention education, the lack of which is a major grievance for people living in Shabwa and Marib provinces, where AQAP is believed to have its strongest presence. The government doesn't provide even a minimal level of schools and teachers there.
