The Yemeni-Huthi truce, signed more than a month ago, is still holding on -- and a couple of recent developments suggest the Huthis are serious about implementing its terms.
The Huthis released 178 prisoners today, according to the cease-fire monitoring committee, a government body that oversees implementation of the truce. The prisoners include both soldiers and civilians; they've been transported from Saada to Sana'a.
An airstrike in Yemen's Abyan province killed two alleged al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula members -- at least according to Yemen's interior ministry. But there are reports in the Yemeni press (عربي) that the bombing actually targeted members of the Southern Movement.
The interior ministry says the attack was carried out by the Yemeni air force (it's probably keen to dispel any rumors of U.S. involvement). Security officials say the victims were AQAP members, plotting to attack targets on the Arabian Sea (a claim we've heard before).
Earlier this week, Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh extended an offer of negotiation to southern separatists who have grown increasingly strident about their grievances with Sana'a, but he also sounded a warning.
"I am certain the flags of separation will burn in the days and weeks ahead," Saleh said.
With thousands gathering across southern Yemen to protest today, Saleh got his chance to demonstrate the hard side of the government's carrot-and-stick approach.
Decent article on Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula in the latest edition of the Jamestown Foundation's Terrorism Monitor. It reinforces the point that AQAP has found fertile recruiting ground in southern Yemen because of the south's political unrest and poor economic and social conditions.
There are no linkages between the southern separatist movement and AQAP, and it's unclear whether the tribes of southern Yemen truly support AQAP's ideology or simply share its antipathy for the central government in Sana'a. But there's common cause, nonetheless.
Jeffrey Feltman, the U.S. undersecretary of state for Near Eastern Affairs, is in Yemen this week meeting with officials from the Yemeni government. Feltman delivered a letter from President Obama to Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh. The text of the letter isn't public, but it reportedly pledged continued financial and military aid for the Saleh government.
Aside from a mid-February flare-up, the cease fire between the government of Yemen and the Huthi rebels in the north seems to be holding. So I guess that means it's time for the southern separatist movement to take on responsibility for unrest in the country: Yemeni security forces engaged in a gun battle while trying to arrest a reputed arms dealer in the southern Abyan province today, killing the man, his wife and his three children.
I've got a piece over on Foreign Policy looking at Yemen's near-total disappearance from the headlines over the last few weeks. There's a lot of important news happening in Yemen -- the Huthi cease-fires, the Riyadh conference, the growing unrest in the south -- and almost none of it is getting covered.
The Riyadh conference on Yemen wrapped up this morning with lots of promises and well-meaning speeches -- but very few firm commitments. And the conference was quickly overshadowed, inside Yemen and around the region, by the deteriorating situation in southern Yemen, where the government has declared a state of emergency.
The Yemeni government presented several papers in Riyadh (عربي) outlining how it will use the roughly $44 billion in foreign aid it hopes to receive over the next five years. One of them outlines how Yemen's government will distribute aid; another talks about Yemen's grim long-term socioeconomic picture (rapidly growing population, dwindling oil reserves, a depleted water table).
If I can paraphrase the latest statement (عربي) from Ali Mohamed Mujawar, Yemen's prime minister: We're not looking to start a sixth civil war with the Huthis, but we're not averse to it, either!
Mujawar warned today that the government would resume its fight against the Huthis unless they quickly implement the six terms of the cease-fire. The rebels say they're already well on their way to implementing the terms: The Huthis say they withdrew from Sa'ada province earlier today; they've returned all of their (living) Saudi prisoners; they've reportedly started dismantling roadblocks.
I said it two weeks ago, and I'll say it again: The West is really not serious about implementing a holistic Yemen policy.
The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees just approved a $5 million "bridge loan" so it can keep providing basic services to refugees and IDPs in northern Yemen. It's shifting money away from one UNHCR program, in other words, to keep its Yemen program afloat. UNHCR helps more than 250,000 people in Sa'ada province displaced by the Yemeni-Huthi and Saudi-Huthi fighting.
Why was this necessary? Because international donors have contributed less than 10 percent of the $40 million UNHCR needs to provide basic services this year -- and less than 3 percent of the $177 million it needs for longer-term efforts.
Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh is in Riyadh today pleading for money meeting with his Saudi counterpart to discuss issues of regional importance.
Saleh's visit is a precursor to the "Riyadh conference" on Saturday, which will involve Yemen, the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council, and U.S. and European representatives. Yemen is hoping to raise a lot of money from international donors -- on the order of $40 billion over the next five years, according to one diplomat -- and Saleh hopes much of that will come from the GCC.
Making news out of Yemen this week: Huthi rebels in the country's north have returned a prisoner of war to Saudi Arabia, and Christmas Day underwear bomber Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab told investigators that he trained with other English-speaking Al-Qaeda terrorists-to-be in the country.
Not making news out of Yemen this week: American aid to the hundreds of thousands of Yemenis displaced by the Huthi rebellion.
Yemen's Huthi rebels have reportedly released the first of five Saudi Arabian prisoners of war in their custody.
Rebels say they released the first soldier, Yahya Abdullah al-Khazai, as a humanitarian gesture (عربي); Khazai was wounded in the leg during fighting earlier this year. The Huthis say they will free the other four prisoners "in the hours and days to come."
Saudi Arabia gave the rebels a 48-hour deadline to free their captives on Saturday. The rebels won't meet that deadline -- but Saudi Arabia doesn't seem interested in restarting the war just yet, and today's goodwill gesture will buy the Huthis some time.
Yemen's Huthi rebels say they have withdrawn their forces from around the airport in Saada province, and they're planning to release their Saudi prisoners of war (عربي).
The rebels say they're also close to removing the last of their roadblocks in Saada -- another one of the Yemeni government's six conditions for the truce. And they deny that they're responsible for yesterday's assassination attempt against Gen. Mohammed Abdullah al-Qussi, a deputy interior minister, whose car was sprayed with bullets yesterday.
The Yemeni government says Huthi rebels killed three soldiers and destroyed a government building in Saada province -- just hours after declaring a cease-fire.
AFP reports that the rebels tried to kill Gen. Mohammed Abdullah al-Qussi, the head of army operations in Saada. Qussi survived the assassination attempt, but several people were killed and injured in the shooting.
"I escaped an assassination attempt by the rebels who opened fire on my car," the head of army operations for Saada province, General Mohammed Abdullah al-Qussi, told AFP.
Qussi says the rebels also staged several other attacks in Saada's Iqab district. As usual, none of these claims can be independently confirmed.
Mareb Press quotes unnamed Yemeni military sources (عربي) who say they're holding up their end of the cease-fire. But the whole thing could quickly unravel: The last cease-fire, in September, fell apart after both sides accused the other of violating the truce.
Following up on this morning's post: Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh has announced a cease-fire with the Huthi rebels. Saleh read a decree announcing the truce on state television; it takes effect at midnight Yemen time (2100 GMT).
The state-run Al-Thawra has more details (عربي) on Saleh's decree. It's similar to the proposals that were reported this morning -- the "six conditions," several parliamentary committees to monitor their implementation, etc.
The big question now, of course, is whether it will hold. The north has not been quiet for long: AFP reported fighting late last night (عربي) in Amran province, which is due south of Saada province; 12 Yemeni soldiers and 24 rebels were reportedly killed following a surprise attack by the Huthis. And the last cease-fire, announced in September, collapsed after about 24 hours.
I tweeted yesterday about some new reports of an imminent cease-fire between the Yemeni government and the Huthi rebels.
Those reports have multiplied in the last 24 hours or so: Wire services report that both sides exchanged proposals this week, and Al-Jazeera's Hashem Ahelbarra says an envoy from Sana'a is meeting today with Abdel Malik al-Huthi, the rebel leader.
The Yemeni interior ministry has pledged to fight al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula "around the clock," according to AFP, because of the group's recent threats against U.S. interests.
It's a fanciful statement -- the Yemeni government doesn't really have the resources to prosecute a 'round-the-clock war against AQAP. It's also incorrect: AFP didn't translate the ministry's statement correctly.
Anwar al-Awlaqi, the Muslim spiritual leader who leaped into the news following revelations of his contact with Ford Hood shooter Nidal Malik Hasan, gave a rare interview to Al-Jazeera over the weekend in which he laid out his support for attempted Christmas Day airline bomber Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab but said he did not personally order Abdulmutallab's attack.
Meanwhile, an audiotape posted on a jihadi forum, purportedly from the deputy commander of Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), Sa'id al-Shihri, called on Muslims in the region to "attack and eliminate" American and "Crusader" interests everywhere, according to the BBC.
We've heard a lot of well-intentioned talk since Dec. 25, and some not so well-intentioned talk, about an international effort to help Yemen. But after all the conferences and congressional hearings and op-eds and speeches -- Western countries don't seem interested in matching that talk with action.
United Nations aid chiefs warn that donors are failing to fund relief efforts in Yemen and they may have to reduce support to those displaced by fighting between government and rebel forces in Arabia's poorest nation.
The humanitarian situation in northern Yemen is grave. The UNHCR estimated recently that 250,000 people have been displaced by fighting in Saada province (and across the border in southern Saudi Arabia). 7,000 new refugees and IDPs flee their homes every week.
