Turkey

(Updated below) Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu is trying to quietly mend fences with Turkey: He dispatched Binyamin Ben-Eliezer, his industry minister, on a secret "mediation" trip to Ankara, according to Israel's Channel 2 news.

It seems crass to talk about "winners" and "losers" after Israel's deadly attack on the flotilla of ships bound for Gaza last month. Nine people were killed, after all; dozens of others were wounded.

Still: It's worth stepping back and thinking about how the flotilla incident has reshaped the politics of the region. My initial take -- bearing in mind that it's too early to predict long-term consequences -- is that the Israeli attack has mostly accelerated existing political trends, rather than creating new ones.

It has accelerated Israel's isolation from several of its neighbors and allies; it has sharpened divisions within Turkish domestic politics; it has deepened perceptions that the Obama administration as too close to Israel. And it seems to have had a remarkably minor impact on Palestinian domestic politics.

A bit of a rant here, I'm sorry, but this is rapidly becoming a pet peeve: Dozens of news outlets -- the Associated Press, the Jerusalem Post, the Wall Street Journal, many others -- have used the phrase "Turkey turning away from the West" over the last few weeks. This trend actually started because of Turkey's role in negotiating the tripartite nuclear fuel swap deal, but it has accelerated following Israel's flotilla attack last week.

The Washington Post is the latest newspaper to trot out this dire conclusion, in a page-one story this morning written by Mary Beth Sheridan. Missing from the article, though, is a clear definition of what it means for Turkey to "turn east."

The leaders of Iran, Turkey and Brazil announced an agreement this morning for a nuclear fuel swap, reviving a long-stalled plan from the International Atomic Energy Agency.

The agreement now heads to the Vienna Group -- the U.S., Russia, France, and the IAEA -- for approval. If those parties sign off, Iran will be obligated to ship 1,200kg of low-enriched uranium (at 3.5 percent enrichment) to Turkey within one month. In return, Iran will receive 120kg of enriched uranium (at 20 percent enrichment) -- to be delivered within one year -- for use in the Tehran Research Reactor.

Brazilian diplomats say Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's last-minute diplomacy paid off: They've told reporters that Iran agreed to a nuclear fuel swap, and that final details of the agreement will be announced on Monday morning.

The Turkish foreign ministry confirms those reports, too. Turkish prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan postponed a trip to Azerbaijan to fly to Iran to join in the fun.

The Iranian government, no doubt aware of the growing push for economic sanctions in Washington and New York, has embarked on something of a diplomatic charm offensive over the last few days.

Iran's foreign minister, Manouchehr Mottaki, held a dinner in New York last night for the members of the United Nations Security Council. Most countries sent their highest-ranking ambassadors, though the United States, United Kingdom, France and Russia all sent lower-level officials.

Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) has run into a number of early obstacles in its push to reform the Turkish constitution.

The AKP introduced its reform package last week with signatures from 265 parliamentarians. But one of the signatories was the parliament speaker, Mehmet Ali Şahin, who is required by law to remain impartial. Opposition leaders said they would challenge the reforms in court, so the AKP re-submitted the proposal, this time without Şahin's signature.

Turkey's government will wait to hear President Obama's April 24 remarks memorializing the World War I-era deaths of some 1.5 million Armenians before deciding whether to return the ambassador it withdrew in protest earlier this month, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said today.

From the Washington Post

Davutoglu set two conditions for [Ambassador Namik] Tan's return: The administration and Congress must show they will refrain from deciding what he called "our history," and the two countries "should agree to develop our strategic alliance," he said.

Turkish police detained 28 people in a half-dozen cities yesterday in connection with the ongoing Ergenekon investigation.

The latest investigation is centered in Izmir, but the arrests spanned the country, from Istanbul to Kars. A businessman named Ahmet Memis is accused of leading the group; he was arrested in Kayseri, and police say they recovered a number of weapons during the raid. The detainees include a number of retired military personnel.

A 6.0-magnitude earthquake struck eastern Turkey for around a minute before dawn on Monday -- late Sunday night on the East Coast -- killing at least 51 people in five villages and leaving another 34 injured.

Turkey recalled its newly minted ambassador to the United States, Namik Tan, on Thursday after the House Foreign Affairs committee narrowly passed a resolution that aims to ensure that the U.S. government formally refers to the deaths of 1.5 million Armenians in World War I as a "genocide."

The 23-22 vote will likely harm relations between the United States and Turkey, according to Al-Jazeera.

Is Fethullah Gulen pulling the strings behind the Turkish coup investigation?

Gulen -- a Turkish preacher who heads the eponymous Fethullah Gulen Movement -- has long been a bogeyman to many American (and Turkish) conservatives, who view him as a sort of Turkish Ayatollah Khomeini, waiting in exile to swoop in and topple the Kemalist republic.

Is Turkey moving towards better civilian control over the military -- or sliding towards a serious confrontation between the government and the army?

Seven former senior officers -- including four admirals and an army general -- were formally charged and jailed today by a Turkish court. Police are still holding several other former high-ranking officers, including Gen. Ibrahim Firtina, the former head of the air force; and Cmdr. Özden Örnek, the former head of the navy. The officers' lawyers say that, because of their ex-military status, only chief prosecutors should be allowed to question them, not ordinary police.

The Pew Global Attitudes Project has some new polling data out from a survey of the Muslim world -- except it's not really new: These are the previously-unreleased results of a survey conducted in May and June of last year.

Remember that nine-month lag as you read the poll. It's great to have public opinion data on Hizballah and Hassan Nasrallah, but the polling in Lebanon ended on June 3 -- before the Lebanese election! So it doesn't account for March 14's victory, the months-long cabinet-making process that followed, Hizballah's new manifesto, the Syrian-Saudi reconciliation, etc.

And some of the poll's findings are just downright unbelievable. So let's take a look, shall we?

(Updated below) Wire services are buzzing this morning with news that Turkish police arrested 120 alleged al-Qaeda members during simultaneous predawn raids in 16 provinces.

Al-Qaeda has occasionally attacked foreign targets in Turkey -- the 2003 bombings in Istanbul, the 2008 U.S. consulate attack -- and police occasionally round up small cells. Today's raid is unusually large; unnamed security sources told the BBC police seized weapons, fake identity cards and "camouflage clothing."

"Sofagate" has largely dropped out of the news, though Turkish newspapers are still puzzling over what the incident says about the state of Israeli-Turkish relations. Hurriyet has a lengthy collection of articles, most of them predating last week's diplomatic Sturm und Drang, on what it calls a "troubled alliance."

Israeli media, meanwhile, have mostly focused on deputy foreign minister Danny Ayalon's not-very-successful attempts to rehabilitate his image. In an interview with Channel 2 news, Ayalon claimed he never intended to humiliate the Turkish ambassador, Oguz Celikkol.

We've focused mostly on the Israeli and Turkish reactions to Sofagate -- but the diplomatic flap is getting quite a bit of attention from the Arabic press, too. Much of the coverage is favorable, and it's likely to boost Turkish prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's growing clout in the Arab world.

Cooler heads seem to have prevailed in Jerusalem: Israeli deputy foreign minister Danny Ayalon apologized to Turkish ambassador Oguz Celikkol, and Turkish prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said his country accepted the apology. Hurriyet quoted a snippet of the apology letter.

Ha'aretz reported about two hours ago that Israeli deputy foreign minister Danny Ayalon refused to issue a formal apology to Turkish ambassador Oguz Celikkol over "Sofagate."

But Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu and president Shimon Peres apparently intervened: Both men ordered the foreign ministry to draft an apology, according to Yedioth Ahronoth.

That written statement has now been sent to the Turkish embassy; no word yet on whether it's enough to avert Turkish president Abdullah Gul's threat to withdraw Celikkol.

Update, 1:31 p.m.:  Ha'aretz may have jumped the gun in reporting Celikkol's withdrawal; new reports say the foreign ministry agreed to issue a formal apology. More details here.

Update, 11:34 a.m.: Israel's foreign ministry refused to issue a further apology, and Turkey has recalled its ambassador.

Original post: Turkish president Abdullah Gul delivered an ultimatum to Israel today, demanding an apology for Israeli deputy foreign minister Danny Ayalon's public humiliation of the Turkish ambassador, Oguz Celikkol.

"Otherwise, our ambassador will be taking the first flight tomorrow to go back home for further consultations," Gul said.

Avigdor Lieberman, Israel's foreign minister, didn't apologize for Ayalon's conduct during a press conference today in Cyprus. Ayalon said Israel "wouldn't tolerate anti-Semitic remarks" from Turkey, and asked the Turkish government to "resume the normal state of relations."