Jordan

U.S. vice president Joe Biden is wrapping up his Middle East trip with a visit to Petra, in Jordan. A little sightseeing might be a welcome relief after a tumultuous week in Jerusalem and Ramallah.

The phrase "turning point" is grossly overused, but this week really feels like a watershed in the region -- and not at all in a good way. Few observers had high hopes for the Israeli-Palestinian proximity talks, but now even that modest dialogue appears off the table. The announcement that Israel is planning another 50,000 homes in East Jerusalem will poison any future talks: How can the Palestinian side negotiate when tens of thousands of illegal homes are considered non-negotiable?

Joe Biden's harsh condemnation of the new construction at Ramot Shlomo -- but the timing of the announcement still made the United States look weak and unwilling to confront Israel.

The Jordanian government on Thursday arrested two former executives of the only petroleum refinery in the country -- one of them a former finance minister -- as well as a current economic adviser to the prime minister and a wealthy businessman, levying bribery and abuse of public office charges against the four men.

Adel Qudah, the ex-finance minister and former chairman of the Jordan Petroleum Refinery Company, is the first former minister to face corruption charges in Jordan's history. The arrests represent the first real push by new Prime Minister Samir Rifai, who promised after being appointed in December that he would tackle corruption, wrote Naseem Tarawnah of the Black Iris of Jordan blog.

I'm a big believer that solving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will have ripple effects throughout the region. It will increase the chances of peace between Israel and its other neighbors (Lebanon and Syria); it will take away a major terrorist recruiting tool, and a distraction that oppressive regimes use to avoid discussing their own problems.

But when I hear things like this, from Jordan's King Abdullah, I cringe.

The Pew Global Attitudes Project has some new polling data out from a survey of the Muslim world -- except it's not really new: These are the previously-unreleased results of a survey conducted in May and June of last year.

Remember that nine-month lag as you read the poll. It's great to have public opinion data on Hizballah and Hassan Nasrallah, but the polling in Lebanon ended on June 3 -- before the Lebanese election! So it doesn't account for March 14's victory, the months-long cabinet-making process that followed, Hizballah's new manifesto, the Syrian-Saudi reconciliation, etc.

And some of the poll's findings are just downright unbelievable. So let's take a look, shall we?

The Jerusalem Post reported today that Jordanian intelligence is investigating Iranian involvement in last week's Dead Sea Highway bombing. The article -- by Jonathan Spyer, an Israeli researcher -- builds its case mostly on insinuation.

Spyer reminds readers, for instance, that Iarn has previously attacked Israeli targets in third countries -- the 1994 bombing in Buenos Aires, for example. This is true, but it's also not proof of Iranian involvement in Jordan. Same goes for last summer's revelation that a Hizballah cell was operating in Egypt.

Jordanian authorities have arrested a taxi driver in connection with yesterday's bombing near the Allenby Bridge, according to Ha'aretz. Police haven't released any details about the arrest.

The blast -- the first roadside bomb attack in Jordan -- left a crater in the road and damaged a highway guardrail, but caused no injuries. Jordanian police say the bomb was detonated remotely; Israeli media say it missed the convoy of Israeli diplomats because it was detonated at the wrong time.

There's a lot of speculation in the Israeli and Jordanian press that the attack was carried out by al-Qaeda, but it's honestly too early to draw any conclusions.

A bomb exploded near a convoy of cars carrying Israeli diplomats in Jordan on Thursday evening, according to Al-Jazeera. Nobody was injured.

The Black Iris blog has an excellent round-up of the ensuing media coverage. The blast reportedly occurred close to the Allenby Bridge, also known as the King Hussein Bridge, the only crossing between Jordan and the West Bank. The convoy was heading from the capital of Amman into the West Bank.

There is some confusion over whether Israel's ambassador to Jordan, Dani Nevo, was in the convoy. Ha'aretz reports that Nevo was "apparently" not in any of the cars, while Al-Jazeera quotes Israeli officials saying the same thing. However, the AFP cites "Israeli media" as saying that Nevo was in the convoy, and Israel's own Foreign Ministry has not provided a straight answer.

There are reports this morning that George Mitchell, the Obama administration's Middle East envoy, threatened to cut off U.S. aid to Israel if the Jewish state blocks final status talks with the Palestinians. (The original source for these reports appears to be this Yedioth Ahronoth story.)

Certainly makes for a compelling headline -- but there's much less here than the headline suggests. If you read his remarks, Mitchell said only that the U.S. could, in theory, cut off aid to Israel. That's thoroughly uncontroversial! The question is whether the U.S. would cut off Israel.

If you think that's possible, then I have a bridge in Brooklyn I'd like to sell you.

Marc Lynch flagged this poll of Jordan's media-watching habits (عربي) from the Jordanian newspaper Ad-Dustour.

35 percent of Jordanians say Al-Jazeera is the most reliable news network, making it the country's most trusted news source. Jordanian TV continues to fall in popularity: Just 13 percent of Jordanians think it's the most reliable network, down from 16 percent last year, and 33 percent in 2004. Al-Arabiya continues to slip, as well.

We here in the United States have grown accustomed to seeing powerful people get what they want, no matter whether they're responsible for gross malfeasance or instigating national catastrophes (see: bonus payouts to the same bankers who helped set up our financial meltdown).

So even if this wonderful photo comes from Jordan, it still warms the cockles of my heart to see influence stripped from the powerful so bluntly and quickly.

I'll be honest: We here at The Majlis don't follow Jordanian politics all that closely. So we're not even going to attempt an "analysis" of King Abdullah's decision to dissolve parliament and call for early elections. Instead, we're just going to point you to Naseem Tarawnah's analysis over at The Black Iris, which does a good job putting Abdullah's move in context.

Jordan has a reputation for being, well, boring. One of my Egyptian friends once described it as "that place you move when you want to have a family," which makes it sound like an Arab version of New Jersey, minus Bayonne.

But today, for the first time that I can recall, there's some unexpected news out of Jordan: King Abdullah issued a decree dissolving parliament and calling for general elections two years ahead of schedule.

The outgoing parliament has been criticized in recent months for not really doing anything -- most MPs are loyal to Abdullah. The decision to dissolve parliament seems to have come as a surprise, though.

I'm sure dozens of reporters in Amman, having written nothing for years except silly travel pieces (Amman has restaurants! Nice ones!), are now scrambling to locate the phone number for parliament.

Today is the 15th anniversary of the Israel-Jordan peace treaty. The milestone seems to be getting almost no attention in either country -- perhaps a reflection of their worsening relations.

Israeli papers only mention the anniversary in negative op-eds: Ha'aretz is worried about deteriorating ties; the Jerusalem Post thinks Jordan isn't doing enough to broker a peace deal.

And it's getting absolutely no attention in the Jordanian press. Ad-Dostour leads with a story (عربي) about the breakdown in Israeli-Palestinian peace talks. And the English-language Jordan Times focuses on the recent violence on the Temple Mount.

In today's edition, we move past definitions and start getting into the good stuff - figuring out exactly how screwed the Arab world really is. First up in the cavalcade of depressing facts: Chapter Two of the Arab Human Development Report, which focuses on environmental threats to human security in the region.

First, a brief reminder about the 2009 AHDR: It's all about "human security." We covered the definition of that term in Part One. By approaching the Arab world from the point of view of human security - the problems confronting everyday citizens, rather than the state as a whole - the authors hope to address the roots of a wealth of problems in today's globalized world. Now, let's get started.

Avigdor Lieberman is not optimistic about the prospect of peace talks with the Palestinians. (In other news, the sun rose in the east today.)

He told Israel Radio today that anyone optimistic about a peace deal "doesn't understand the situation and is spreading delusions."

And his office is apparently drafting new foreign policy for Israel that anticipates it will not reach a permanent peace deal. The document was drafted by Naor Gilon, a Foreign Ministry official, and passed to Avigdor Lieberman yesterday.

It's important to note that Lieberman does not set the agenda for peace talks with the Palestinians. That comes out of the prime minister's office. But the policy document circulating at the foreign ministry might offer a useful indication of the conventional wisdom in Jerusalem and Tel Aviv.

One more observation on today's Friday prayer in Tehran. Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami apparently used it to make two political points: to call for Esfandiar Rahim Mashaie's ouster as vice president, and to criticize Western media coverage of Neda Agha-Soltan's murder, which he called a "Western conspiracy."

Friday prayer has been one of the most important institutions in Iran since the revolution. It attracts tens of thousands of congregants and is broadcast to the entire country; it is an effective tool for reinforcing political consensus and building support for the Islamic system of government.

Around 45 people protested in front of the agricultural ministry in Amman on Sunday, according to the Jerusalem Post. They don't want any fruit or vegetables coming into Jordan from Israel, saying the revenue helps support Israeli settlements in the West Bank.

The Post notes that approximately 70 percent of the Jordanian population is of "Syro-Palestinian" descent - so the affinity for the Palestinian cause is obviously strong.