Iraq

This was an unintentionally funny exchange from Al-Sharq Al-Awsat's interview with Iraqi vice president Tariq al-Hashemi (عربي):

Q: Which of the coalitions is closest to you in forming the government?

Hashemi: It is a coalition which is committed to the constitution and to the rules of democratic behavior. [...]

Q: So Iraqiyya is not close to any coalition?

The interviewer was clearly just trying to press him on an evasive answer, but given the events of the last three months, the question seems somewhat appropriate. Hashemi goes on to say that Iraqiyya will not take part in the goverment if it's excluded -- a fairly serious threat I can't recall Iraqiyya having made before.

Of course, whether or not they follow through is another story: We've heard a lot of rhetoric since March 7, and most of it is just political posturing.

In any event, should make for a fun time this afternoon when Nouri al-Maliki and Iyad Allawi hold their second post-election meeting.

This weekend's electricity protests in Basra might spark a renewed bid for autonomy in southern Iraq: Jabbar Amin, the chairman of the provincial council, said yesterday that he wants to create a Basra autonomous region (عربي) to "improve the services provided to residents of the province."

We're in the middle of a brutal (and apparently unprecedented) heat wave here in the Gulf. Daytime highs between 46 and 50 Celsius -- 115 and 122 Fahrenheit -- haven't been unusual over the last two weeks.

Tempers followed temperatures in southern Iraq today, where thousands of protesters tried to storm the provincial government building to protest a lack of basic services -- particularly electricity and potable water. The protesters demanded the dismissal of the provincial governor, and the electricity minister, Karim Waheed al-Aboudi.

Continuing the theme of Iraqi politics as depressing theater, the parliament convened today for its first meeting since the election.

The session lasted eighteen minutes, long enough for an opening prayer, the oath of office (taken in either Arabic or Kurdish), and an apologetic statement from MP Fouad Masoum, the chair of the session, who told Iraq that legislators need time "for further deliberations" on the next government.

And that was it! They adjourned without setting a date for another meeting, let alone selecting a president or parliamentary speaker.

In case you're wondering, prime minister Nouri al-Maliki sat next to Ammar al-Hakim, the head of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (and Maliki's likely coalition partner). Iyad Allawi sat a few seats down. Maliki and Allawi walked out next to each other, but didn't appear to speak at all.

Iraqiyya TV (no relation to the Iraqiyya list!) ran a "breaking news" headline on Thursday night announcing an official merger between Nouri al-Maliki's State of Law coalition and the Iraqi National Alliance Shi'ite bloc.

Not too exciting, right? The State of Law-INA merger was unofficially announced more than a month ago, and the new governing coalition still hasn't picked a prime minister. They did pick a name (عربي), the National Alliance, but otherwise there's nothing new in this announcement.

Security officials in Diyala province have withdrawn permits allowing some 10,000 Sunni Awakening members to carry weapons (عربي).

A spokesman for the Iraqi military said the Awakening members are civilians, "so it is not reasonable to authorize around 10,000 personnel to carry weapons in this province." Awakening leaders responded by threatening to withdraw their men from checkpoints in Diyala.

Eighty days after the vote, Iraq's Independent High Electoral Commission finally sent the results of the March 7 parliamentary election to the Supreme Court for certification.

But the judiciary prepared to approve the tally just yet: In a statement today, the court said "there are some legal issues that need clarification from IHEC." At least one of those issues involves a candidate for the Iraqi National Alliance, whose ability to run for office was challenged by Nouri al-Maliki's State of Law bloc.

I had to laugh this morning when I read Saudi prince Turki al-Faisal's criticism of Iraqi prime minister Nouri al-Maliki.

"Adding to the brutal mayhem taking place there, we are watching a deliberate effort on the part of the incumbent prime minister, Mr al Maliki, to hijack the results of the election and deny the Iraqi people their legitimately elected government," he said.

The substance of his criticism is actually fair: Maliki and his allies spent weeks complaining about fraud and questioning the validity of the election, but the recently-concluded Baghdad recount found virtually zero evidence of tampering.

But... a member of the Saudi royal family criticizing anyone for being insufficiently democratic? Seriously?

The Washington Post does a little concern-trolling today about the Iraq withdrawal deadline, noting that the Obama administration still plans to withdraw on schedule despite "political uncertainties in Iraq."

This is a guest post from Wladimir van Wilgenburg, an analyst for the Jamestown Foundation. His main expertise is the situation of Kurds in the Middle-East. Wilgenburg is also an editor of the Kurdish newspaper Rudaw, based in Erbil.

It seems increasingly certain that Iyad Allawi's Iraqiyya alliance will be squeezed out of the next Iraqi government. Wilgenburg explains one of the main reasons Iraqiyya is sidelined: tensions between the Kurdish parties and some of Allawi's coalition partners.

The Kurds are often branded as potential kingmakers in Iraq, and have to decide which list they will support: the largely Sunni-supported Iraqi National Movement (Iraqiyya) of former prime minister Iyad Allawi, or the State of Law coalition headed by Shi'ite prime minister Nouri al-Maliki.

Although the Kurds have good relations with Allawi, they have problems with some partners of the Iraqiyya list in Mosul, which contest Kurdish claims to disputed regions. Allawi's list seems to be the biggest challenge to Kurdish territorial claims in Mosul and Kirkuk. Therefore it is more likely that they will support a Shiite alliance.

The former Kurdish PM Nechirvan Barzani outlined the Kurdish position towards Iraqiyya pretty clear. "Unfortunately, the Iraqiyya list involves figures who have made their political mission against Kurdish people, and refuse to acknowledge gained Kurdish achievements."

Anthony Shadid reports that the Justice and Accountability Commission -- the de-Ba'athification commission, which roiled Iraqi politics for months -- has finally decided to wrap up its work.

"It's stopped," President Jalal Talabani said. "There will be no more."

Well, good. The commission was a questionably legal body, and it made a series of poorly justified, ad hoc decisions. It played an unconstructive role in Iraqi politics.

That said, I can't help but think abolishing the commission at this point is closing the proverbial barn door after the horse has bolted. The architects of the commission, notably Ahmed Chalabi, already got what they wanted: As Reidar Visser has argued (and argues again in Shadid's piece), the de-Ba'athification process helped to undermine any push for a more nationalist and less sectarian government in Iraq.

In any event, we'll wait and see what replaces the commission (which was supposed to replaced by a successor years ago).

The murder last week of Kurdish journalist and student Zardasht Osman continues to trouble the water in ostensibly stable and secure Kurdistan. On Tuesday, hundreds of university students marched through Erbil, the capital of that semi-autonomous northern region, and fought with security forces at the parliamentary building there, according to the New York Times.

A series of coordinated attacks across Baghdad today -- 23 separate incidents, in Baghdad and seven other cities -- killed close to 100 people.

There's little to say about the violence, honestly. We've assembled a list of the attacks, and the casualty counts, after the jump. The scope is stunning: A dozen attacks on police and army checkpoints in Baghdad; coordinated car and suicide bombings in Hilla, Suweira and Fallujah; and other brazen attacks against security and political officials.

Iraq's political class -- distracted by the government formation process -- hasn't said much about the violence. Prime minister Nouri al-Maliki hasn't released an official statement on the violence, and I haven't seen him (or any other Iraqi officials) quoted in the Iraqi/Arabic press.

Ali al-Dabbagh, Maliki's spokesman, did say tonight (عربي) that the attacks "have the hallmarks" of Al-Qaeda in Iraq.

Interesting report in Al-Rafidayn this morning, which speculates that Moqtada al-Sadr is dropping his opposition (عربي) to Nouri al-Maliki's reappointment as prime minister. (Well, sort of.)

Amir al-Kanani, a senior member of the Sadrist movement, told the newspaper that the Sadrists have no "red lines" on the next prime minister. He said the main concern is that State of Law and the Iraqi National Alliance both adhere to the agreed-upon mechanism for appointing the next PM.

OK, I give up. Remember about 48 hours ago, when State of Law and the Iraqi National Alliance announced a coalition?

Well, according to Al-Rafidayn, there's a new narrative: A State of Law/Iraqiyya merger, to be announced within the next few days (عربي).

Attribution is (needless to say) quite vague, an unnamed source who's involved with the talks between the two blocs. Under the terms of the agreement, Nouri al-Maliki would keep his job as prime minister, and Iyad Allawi would take over as president -- except he would also control the military.

I haven't seen this reported anywhere else; other Iraqi newspapers are still talking about the State of Law/INA merger (عربي). If the report is true, the merger could obviously fall apart at any moment, not least because it's unconstitutional: The prime minister is currently designated as the commander-in-chief, not the president.

If I had to speculate, I'd say this is a leak from someone in Allawi's camp. The State of Law/INA merger isn't final yet -- they haven't selected a prime minister -- and Iraqiyya knows Maliki is unhappy that he will almost certainly lose his job as PM. Perhaps this is Allawi's way of reminding Maliki he could keep his job in exchange for Iraqiyya playing a role in the government.

I'll be skeptical of this until the new government is actually seated, but the State of Law alliance announced today that it has agreed to form a coalition (عربي) with the Iraqi National Alliance, the Shi'ite bloc led by the Sadrist movement and the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq.

52 parliamentary candidates in Iraq, including two who won seats in last month's election, have been retroactively disqualified from the ballot by the judicial panel reviewing de-Ba'athification decisions.

Both of the winning candidates came from the Iraqiyya bloc, which holds a two-seat lead over prime minister Nouri al-Maliki's State of Law coalition. The BBC reports that Iraqiyya will replace the disqualified candidates with other people, preserving the balance of power in parliament (though not the will of the voters who elected those candidates).

(Updated below) Aside from the horrific violence in Baghdad and Anbar, the big story in Iraqi newspapers this morning is a rumored reconciliation meeting between prime minister Nouri al-Maliki and Iyad Allawi, the leader of the Iraqiyya coalition. There's one report in Al-Sabaah (عربي), another in Al-Rafidayn (عربي); a short item in Aswat al-Iraq; and so on.

Both men have reportedly agreed to the meeting, in principle, and just need to pick a time.

More than 60 people have been killed in a series of bombings across Baghdad and Anbar province.

The bombings in Baghdad targeted civilian areas in several different neighborhoods. Two car bombs reportedly went off in Sadr City, killing nearly 40 people. One bomb struck a market; the other went off near Moqtada al-Sadr's headquarters (عربي).

I was out of town all weekend -- no laptop or anything! -- and apparently picked the worst possible weekend for a trip, because three major Iraq stories broke in the span of 72 hours. So here's my belated attempt to play catch-up -- and an effort to push forward each story based on today's reporting/analysis.