Israel & Palestine

I mentioned this in my Netanyahu visit post, but it's worth highlighting in more detail: B'Tselem has a new report out which concludes Israeli settlements occupy 42 percent of the total land area in the West Bank.

The actual construction in the settlements occupies just 55,479 dunam of land, roughly 1 percent of the total area of the West Bank. But B'Tselem argues, based on official state documents and maps, that the jurisdiction of the settlements -- including the various "regional councils" in the West Bank -- actually extends over 2.4 million dunam.

Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu is in Washington today for a series of meetings at the White House. He'll hold one-on-one talks with US president Barack Obama before a "working lunch" with Obama, vice president Joseph Biden, and several other officials.

Obama's top priority during these talks will almost certainly be pushing for an extension to Israel's temporary West Bank settlement freeze, which is due to expire in September. The end of the freeze would forestall any possibility of direct talks between the Israelis ri the Palestinians.

"There has been a distinct improvement in the White House relationship with Israel since the last meeting" between Obama and Netanyahu on March 23, said Jonathan Spyer, a political scientist at Israel's Interdisciplinary Center Herzliya. "Obama will be looking for a payback," perhaps in the form of an extension to the settlement freeze, Spyer said.

But from Netanyahu's perspective, the domestic politics of extending the freeze are... difficult, to say the least. His administration has nothing to show for the current freeze: Israeli-Palestinian "proximity talks" have yielded little concrete progress, save for a rumored land swap proposal offered by Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas.

Mark Perry strikes again over on Foreign Policy's Middle East Channel:

In a "Red Team" report issued on May 7 and entitled "Managing Hizballah and Hamas," senior CENTCOM intelligence officers question the current U.S. policy of isolating and marginalizing the two movements.

Perry reported in March that Gen. David Petraeus asked to include the West Bank and Gaza in CENTCOM's area of responsibility (some notes from a follow-up conversation I had with Perry are here). Today's report fits in the same vein: Military leaders, if not civilian policymakers, are starting to see the deep structural flaws in US policy in the Middle East.

The Palestinian boycott of settlement products is starting to have an impact -- but not just on settlers.

Salam Fayyad, the Palestinian prime minister, went to a Ramallah supermarket yesterday to launch the PA's new inspection campaign. 66,000 shops across the West Bank will be checked for settlement goods. Those in compliance with the boycott will get a certificate; those in violation will receive a fine, potentially worth several thousands of dollars.

The flotilla disaster has already chewed up a month or so of the four months earmarked for Israeli-Palestinian proximity talks.

And the Likud party delivered a reminder today that the window for talks is unlikely to be extended: The party's central committee voted in favor of resuming settlement construction when the 10-month West Bank settlement freeze expires in September.

This post will be about yesterday's decision to revive the "King's Garden" plan in East Jerusalem's Silwan neighborhood, which would demolish 22 Palestinian homes to make way for a tourist center. First, though, a bit of media criticism.

The Israeli security cabinet met earlier today and announced (some of) the details of its plan to ease the Gaza blockade.

Today's announcement from the cabinet was more detailed than last week's, which merely declared Israel's intent to loosen the blockade. But it still doesn't say exactly which goods will be barred from Gaza; whether businesses in Gaza will be allowed to resume exports; or whether the looser blockade will include looser rules on the movement of people.

It's a small step, but nonetheless it's objectively a good thing. After the jump: A statement from the White House, issued a few minutes after the Israeli decision.

Israel's decision to slightly ease the Gaza blockade drew a very caveated reaction from around the world. Britain's foreign office said "further work is needed"; Catherine Ashton, the European Union foreign policy chief, urged Israel to allow "many, many more goods... in to Gaza."

Pew released its latest global survey a few hours ago, and it shows a clear drop in public support in Muslim countries for US policies and for Barack Obama.

Not too surprising, right? Many of Obama's policies are proving deeply unpopular in the Muslim world. But what's striking to me is how his personal support is falling much faster than perceptions of official US policy.

It seems crass to talk about "winners" and "losers" after Israel's deadly attack on the flotilla of ships bound for Gaza last month. Nine people were killed, after all; dozens of others were wounded.

Still: It's worth stepping back and thinking about how the flotilla incident has reshaped the politics of the region. My initial take -- bearing in mind that it's too early to predict long-term consequences -- is that the Israeli attack has mostly accelerated existing political trends, rather than creating new ones.

It has accelerated Israel's isolation from several of its neighbors and allies; it has sharpened divisions within Turkish domestic politics; it has deepened perceptions that the Obama administration as too close to Israel. And it seems to have had a remarkably minor impact on Palestinian domestic politics.

By now you've probably heard about Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) endorsing the Gaza blockade at a meeting of the Orthodox Union. Schumer praised the collective punishment of 1.5 million people in Gaza, telling the crowd (to strong applause) that "strangl[ing] them economically" would reduce support for Hamas.

After an uncharacteristically restrained response to Israel's attack on the Gaza flotilla, Iran seems intent on stealing some of Turkey's thunder.

One year ago today, Barack Obama went to Cairo University and delivered this optimistic speech. He vowed to "seek a new beginning between the United States and Muslims around the world." The speech was certainly received with some skepticism, but coverage in the Arabic press was generally positive and sympathetic.

Today, the top story on Al-Jazeera's Web site (عربي) is headlined "Obama: Israel's concerns are legitimate." Obama and vice president Joe Biden call the Gaza flotilla raid "tragic" -- but both  defend Israel's actions, actions which have been condemned by virtually every other world leader on the planet. (Even the New York Times editorial board, hardly a staunch critic of Israel, seems puzzled by Obama's "tepid response.")

I've been doing largely non-stop flotilla coverage at Al-Jazeera for the last three days (including live blogs on Monday and Tuesday), so you'll forgive me for not writing too much about the subject tonight; I need a break. (Issandr El Amrani has a good roundup of flotilla commentary, if you're looking for broad analysis.)

But I do want to quickly comment on the American reaction -- or, rather, the lack thereof -- to the flotilla attack. During the White House press briefing yesterday, press secretary Robert Gibbs was asked (repeatedly) about Obama's refusal to condemn Israel's actions -- something dozens of other world leaders had already done.

Updated: It's been a day since the deadly raid on the so-called "Freedom Flotilla," and the fallout for Israel continues.

Although initial reports said that as many as 19 activists on board the Mavi Mamara had been killed during a nighttime Israeli Navy commando raid early on Monday morning, that toll has since been revised by both the Israeli government and the organizing groups to either nine or 10. Israeli has not released the identities of the flotilla passengers, despite facing a court challenge to do so.

We haven't remarked yet on the flotilla of cargo ships making their way from the Turkish coast towards the Gaza Strip. The boats left international waters around Cyprus this afternoon; they expect to reach Gazan waters -- and a group of Israeli Navy ships waiting offshore -- tomorrow morning.

It would be dismissive and unfair to call the flotilla a PR stunt; the ships are carrying 10,000 tons of aid, all of it sorely needed in the blockaded Gaza Strip. It's an impressive humanitarian gesture (though if the aid does get through, it's hardly certain Hamas will distribute it according to need).

The Israeli foreign ministry e-mailed a press release to reporters earlier this week insisting that there is no humanitarian crisis in the Gaza Strip.

Need proof? The ministry's e-mail included four photos of well-stocked markets in Gaza City; it also linked to news reports about the opening of Gaza's first Olympic-size swimming pool and a "luxurious restaurant" in Gaza City.

For basically as long as Lebanon has existed as a modern nation, foreign forces have found the country a useful proxy to assert their regional interests in the Middle East, so it's not exactly breaking from script for the Obama administration and the U.S. Congress to assert an extremely self-interested agenda during Prime Minister Saad Hariri's first visit to Washington since coming to power last summer. (Nor is it strange for America to be self-interested, but I digress.)

Hariri met with Obama on Monday; he spent Tuesday with Vice President Joe Biden and members of Congress, including House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Looking at the reporting that has emerged in the past two days, those meetings have been dominated by topics of American concern: the alleged transfer of Scud missiles from Syria to Hizballah, the disarming of Hizballah, and Lebanon's role in the U.S.-led effort to sanction Iran. Shelved, for the most part: Discussion of America's mired attempt to kick-start Israeli-Palestinian peace.

Volunteers have begun going door-to-door in the West Bank handing out lists of 500 recently-banned products manufactured on illegal Israeli settlements.

The boycott campaign was organized earlier this year by Palestinian prime minister Salam Fayyad. A new law signed last month makes it illegal to sell products from the settlements; violators face a $14,000 fine. PA officials also confiscated and destroyed some $5 million worth of settlement products.

The Israeli tabloid daily Maariv carried a story on Thursday exposing what the newspaper purported to be a "secret" plan hatched by Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman to "pester" Saudi Arabia with a global information campaign that could involve lobbying the U.S. Congress and European parliament, and perhaps even filing lawsuits, all with the intent of exposing the kingdom's "involvement in financing terrorism, the state of human rights ... the status of women and numerous other issues." (Original article in Hebrew here.)