Gallup: Obama less trusted in Muslim world

One question asked for America's overall favorability rating. This seems like a structural question: You'll answer based on what the US is doing in the world, and what you expect it to do. After a slight increase in 2009, those ratings are back down to roughly their 2008 levels (and, in the case of Egypt and Pakistan, below 2008 levels).

Pew also asked people whether they trust Obama "to do the right thing in world affairs," a highly personalized question. There was a huge jump in "yes" answers from 2008 to 2009 -- from 2 percent to 33 percent in Turkey, for example -- followed by a marked decrease from 2009 to 2010.

Obama's personal approval rating also dropped substantially: by 10 percent in Turkey, Egypt and Lebanon, and 5 percent in Pakistan (where it was only 13 percent last year).

Those numbers should be alarming to the White House and the State Department. Obama's election caused sizable pluralities in many Muslim countries to set aside their historic skepticism of US policies. But that skepticism is quickly returning -- because US policy isn't changing much -- and once it's back, it will be hard to dispel again. Pew's conclusion:

Roughly one year since Obama's Cairo address, America's image shows few signs of improving in the Muslim world, where opposition to key elements of U.S. foreign policy remains pervasive and many continue to perceive the U.S. as a potential military threat to their countries.

The administration still likes to talk about the enduring impact of the Cairo speech, but this poll (and quite a few other surveys, studies, and anecdotes) illustrate how quickly that speech is being forgotten.

Little confidence about Iraq, broad support on Iran

Aside from the Obama data points, a few other numbers jumped out at me.

Obama's policies in Israel and the Palestinian territories are deeply unpopular in the region. The median level of support for his policies is 29 percent. In Egypt, it's 11 percent; Lebanon, 8 percent; Turkey, just 5 percent.

Support for suicide bombings increased slightly. I don't want to overstate this conclusion: This is one poll, and support for suicide attacks against civilians remains an outlier view everywhere. But it did increase: from 12 percent to 20 percent in Jordan; from 15 percent to 20 percent in Egypt; and from 5 percent to 8 percent in Pakistan. That last one is particularly surprising, since hundreds of Pakistanis have been killed by suicide bombings over the last year.

Obama's Iran policies have substantial support. A majority of people in Jordan, Lebanon and Egypt support economic sanctions over Iran's nuclear program (and slight majorities in Egypt and Jordan are willing to consider military action). Those numbers are much lower in Turkey, though, just 44 percent and 29 percent respectively -- perhaps a reflection of Turkey's closer relationship with Tehran.

There's little optimism about the future of Iraq's democratic government. The number that really stuck out was from Jordan: Only 36 percent of Jordanians think Iraq will succeed in its "efforts to establish a stable government," down from 50 percent last year. Jordan is a Sunni country, so I suspect that reflects (in part) the ascendancy of the Shi'ite National Alliance.