Yedioth Ahronoth reports on a new political poll this morning and concludes that the Likud party in Israel is losing support. But the poll numbers don't quite support that conclusion.
The survey asked voters who they would choose in a Knesset election held today. Kadima fared the best: It would increase its representation from 28 seats to 32. That would place Tzipi Livni's party three seats ahead of Likud.
Except... Likud also picked up seats: Its representation grew from 27 to 29 MKs.
Doesn't sound like Likud is losing popularity, right? Here's what's actually happening: Respondents panned Ehud Barak's Labor party; it would receive just 8 seats in this mock election, down from the 13 it currently holds. Most of those votes transfer to Kadima.
Labor's falling support is no surprise. The party reluctantly joined Netanyahu's coalition last year after the prime minister pledged to restart peace talks with the Palestinians. Those talks are still stalled, of course, and Labor's voice within the coalition is increasingly marginalized (exactly what many Labor members predicted).
Kadima, on the other hand, has positioned itself as a counterweight to Netanyahu's coalition. So it's not surprising to see Labor voters shift to Livni's party.
64 percent of respondents said the current government "does not represent their wishes," so there's clearly a desire for a new coalition. But the frustration seems mostly directed at the ultra-right-wing parties in the coalition -- Yisrael Beiteinu and Shas, for example -- and not at Likud.
One other note: Let's say these results become a reality in the next Israeli coalition. Could Kadima get to the 60 MKs it needs to form a government? Probably not. These are the full results of the poll (עברית). If Kadima joined with its natural coalition partners -- Labor, Meretz, and the Arab parties -- it would only have 58 seats. The right-wing parties (Likud, Yisrael Beiteinu, Shas, United Torah Judaism, National Union, Habayit Hayehudi) would still control a narrow majority of the Knesset.
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Categories: Israel, Israel & Palestine, Politics, Regional News
Tags: Benjamin Netanyahu, Habayit Heyehudi, Kadima, Knesset, Labor party (Israel), Likud party, polling, Shas party, Yisrael Beiteinu
1 Comment
Interesting analysis.
Why was it that Kadima did not join with Likud to form a coalition after the last election?
Was it based on policy disagreements or a preference for the opposition over a coalition with Likud?
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