Iraqi Elections

IHEC: State of Law leads in four southern provinces

IHEC hasn't released any new results (عربي) today, so the latest official data is still the preliminary results from six provinces reported yesterday.

But the commission did release a statement that generally characterizes the vote in four southern provinces. We already knew prime minister Nouri al-Maliki's State of Law coalition did well in Babil and Najaf provinces. The commission says State of Law is also leading in Dhi Qar, Wassit, Qadisiyah and Muthanna provinces. All four are majority-Shi'ite. None are particularly large; Dhi Qar is probably the only one with a population larger than one million.

State of Law's dominance isn't surprising: Maliki's Dawa party carried these provinces in provincial elections last year, and certainly no one expected Iraqiyya to win a big plurality.

IHEC's statement doesn't say how the Iraqi National Alliance fared, though. Moqtada al-Sadr's movement has a large following in Dhi Qar, and the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq has a considerable presence all four provinces.

The commission did release preliminary early voting data from Muthanna (you'll remember that soldiers, police and medical workers, among others, were allowed to vote early). State of Law received 2,613 out of 5,432 votes counted, putting the coalition at around 48 percent. I would caution against treating this as a representative sample, though, since the voter pool is so heavily comprised of security forces.

Further results are expected to dribble out over the next few days, with full results due on Thursday, according to IHEC.

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