Arab League agrees to Israeli-Palestinian "proximity talks"

Tel Aviv welcomed the decision; Washington clearly supports the idea (since Obama proposed proximity talks in the first place). But it's hard to be optimistic about where these talks will lead. Nobody knows what the two sides will discuss: Palestinian sources today said only (عربي) that the talks would "lay a foundation" for direct negotiations; reports last month suggested the talks will focus exclusively on borders.

And the PA (to say nothing of the Palestinian people) seems to have extremely low expectations for the talks.

"Israel does not want to return to the negotiating table. But it wishes to blame the Palestinian side, saying that the Palestinians do not want to enter into negotiations," said Abbas's spokesman Nabil Abu Rudeina. "So we must put a stop to this pretext and reveal Israel's true position before the international community and the American administration."

In other words: We'll talk, but we won't change our position, nor will the Israelis, and we'll be right back here in four months. The decision to accept these negotiations seems mostly a test for the United States -- to see if Obama will seriously push Israel. If he doesn't, don't expect much Arab support for further negotiations.

Moallem: A phased Golan return

There are some very, very slight signs of life on Israeli-Syrian negotiations, too, though I don't expect any real motion. Benjamin Netanyahu said today he's willing to "meet with the Syrians immediately and without setting preconditions" -- which has been his position for months. The Syrians always respond by insisting on one precondition: the return of the Golan Heights.

Walid al-Moallem, Syria's foreign minister, made some interesting remarks about the Golan in an interview published last week by Gabrielle Rifkind:

Walid Muallem, Syria's foreign minister, reveals a very different approach to the revival of peace talks. In a meeting with myself and colleagues in December last year, he said: "For peacemaking, Israel needs to be ready to recognise that Syria is entitled to every inch of the Golan, but we wish to engage in talks." "For us," he continued, "the land is sacred and a matter of honour."

Muallem suggested that Syria was prepared to contemplate a step-by-step approach to the return of the Golan Heights, territory that Israel captured in the 1967 war. "There could be stages of withdrawal, the timing of which could involve a form of normalisation," he said. "Half of the Golan could lead to an end of enmity; three-quarters of the Golan, to a special interest section in the US embassy in Damascus: a full withdrawal would allow a Syrian embassy in Israel." Key issues, such as Syria's support for Hamas, Hezbollah and its policy to Iran, would, he said, "only be answered after withdrawal".

That seems to be a moderation of the Syrian government's past positions, which have demanded the full and immediate return of the Golan. But it still treats the territory as a precondition, and Netanyahu's not there yet (to say nothing of the rest of his governing coalition).

Finally, Turkish foreign minister Ahmet Davutoglu said yesterday that his country is still willing to mediate any Israeli-Syrian talks -- but the Israeli government still seems unlikely to accept.