Iraqi Elections

A final week of campaigning in Iraq

78,000 Iraqi and international monitors are fanning out across Iraq (عربي) ahead of parliamentary elections on Sunday. It's an admirable effort by 30 international organizations and more than 300 Iraqi groups -- though I would argue that the worst shenanigans (i.e. the de-Ba'athification circus) have already happened. Low-level fraud on election day won't matter nearly as much as the political wrangling that preceded the vote.

In any event, candidates are mounting a final campaign push this week -- particularly prime minister Nouri al-Maliki, whose State of Law coalition is expected to win the largest plurality of seats. Maliki is already facing criticism over his decision to reinstate 20,000 former Iraqi officers -- described as pandering by his opponents. The decision is quite popular with the officers themselves (عربي), though.

And now Saad al-Alusi, a former spokesman for Iraq's national spy service, says Maliki diverted thousands of guns from Iraqi spooks in order to buy votes from Iraqi sheikhs.

Alusi, who was the INIS spokesman until he was asked to move to another ministry eight days ago, said some 8,000 guns were ordered from a Serbian supplier at the end of 2008 for use by intelligence officers. However he claimed Maliki "denied our contract at the last minute and made his own contract of 10,000 pistols, which he has used as election propaganda for himself and his party.

"This was a very important contract for the intelligence service. We have no weapons to this day," Alusi said.

Ali al-Dabbagh, Maliki's spokesman, acknowledges that the prime minister gave guns to tribal elders -- but says Maliki did it to "thank them for their contributions to Iraqi security," not to buy their votes.

All of this is aimed at securing Sunni votes for Maliki's State of Law coalition. But he's keeping his options open: In a speech yesterday (عربي), Maliki hinted at a possible alliance with the Iraqi National Alliance, led by Ammar al-Hakim's Supreme Islamic Council of Iraq and the Sadrist movement.

Maliki broke away from that alliance last year to form State of Law, but some Shi'ite figures -- including Iranian politicians, like parliament speaker Ali Larijani -- have tried to negotiate a reconciliation between the two. (Ali al-Sistani, the top Shi'ite cleric in Iraq, has urged his fellow ulema to remain neutral in the vote.)

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That story about Maliki handing out guns seems way overblown. The report said the guns were symbolic with engravings on them. Big deal. Maliki's Dawa party is still small, secretive, and elitist and doesn't really have a popular base so the PM is trying to replicate one of his successful strategies from the 2009 vote and win over tribes to his side to get votes. Hence the handing out of guns to sheikhs and letters full of cash. This is what he did before with the Tribal Support Councils.

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