Report: Netanyahu will oppose independent Goldstone investigation

The Israeli government will not conduct an independent investigation of the Goldstone Report's findings, according to a report in the Jerusalem Post.

It's a single-source report, and it still hasn't been confirmed by the Israeli government. But an unnamed senior official in prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office said Bibi is satisfied with the IDF's internal probe, the preliminary results of which were submitted to the United Nations earlier this month.

There's been a lot of internal debate over establishing a civilian investigation. Netanyahu reportedly favors (favored?) the idea, as do a number of prominent Israelis, including attorney general Menachem Mazuz and deputy prime minister Dan Meridor; the military establishment opposes it. If the Post's report is true, then it seems the IDF won that argument.

Why would Netanyahu back off? For one thing, as we've written before, Netanyahu is looking to avoid major political confrontation. He has a bunch of divisive issues on his plate -- Syrian negotiations, East Jerusalem settlements, the peace process, etc. -- so he's probably not going to push too hard on the Goldstone Report.

Fighting for an independent probe offers him very little political gain -- that is, unless he thinks it will prevent the United Nations from referring the Goldstone Report to the International Criminal Court. That doesn't seem likely right now: Human rights groups panned the IDF's internal investigation, but the official reaction from UN secretary-general Ban Ki-moon was extremely vague. He seems more focused on restarting peace talks than advancing the Goldstone Report. And the General Assembly doesn't have Goldstone on its schedule.

The UN Security Council could refer Goldstone to the ICC without a General Assembly vote -- but that would require American support, which Barack Obama is unlikely to give. He certainly doesn't face much domestic pressure. AIPAC dismisses the report as a biased "denial of [Israel's] right to self-defense," and says the IDF is already doing enough (pdf) to investigate alleged war crimes. J Street takes a more nuanced position -- it doesn't call the report biased, and it wants an independent Israeli investigation, along the lines of the Winograd Commission -- but it doesn't want to see UN or ICC action, either.

And the U.S. House of Representatives voted overwhelmingly in November to condemn the report.

So if there's no real pressure -- from Jerusalem, from Washington, from New York -- Netanyahu seems likely to let the issue drop.

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