Whatever happens in Marja, Afghan civilians will suffer

Josh Foust catches this bizarre press release from ISAF:

Despite reports of large numbers of civilians fleeing the area, the facts on the ground do not support these assertions. Current estimates are that fewer than 200 families have left Nad-e Ali since Operation Moshtarak was announced. Combined force commanders are encouraging civilians to remain in the safety of their homes. Every effort is being made to ensure minimum disruption to the residents during the operation.

As Noah Schachtman writes, the press release contradicts earlier statements from U.S. generals, who urged Afghan civilians to leave the town to avoid "getting caught in the crossfire." NATO planes have spent days dropping leaflets on Marja, urging people to leave.

And the "fewer than 200 families" figure is an absurd underestimate. Journalists and aid workers say tens of thousands of people in Marja have already fled. Al-Jazeera's David Chater traveled to one refugee camp outside Kabul, where he found hundreds of families, many of whom have fled the fighting in Helmand.

Gen. Stanley McChrystal has talked a lot about the importance of reducing civilian casualties, and commanders are saying all the right things about protecting the population. But "civilian casualties" is a limited metric: You can avoid civilian casualties by driving villagers from Marja, but if you force them to spend a freezing winter in squalid refugee camps, you're still probably going to lose their support.

ISAF clearly hasn't figured out which is the lesser of two evils -- hence the contradictory statements.

On the other side of the conflict, there's the Taliban, which is reportedly trying to prevent civilians from leaving the town. Civilian casualties breed resentment toward ISAF, so the Taliban has an incentive to cause them; Taliban fighters also want a civilian population to "blend into" when ISAF arrives. Una Moore flags this item from the Associated Press:

Villager Mohammad Hakim gambled that he could wait until the last minute because he was worried about abandoning his cotton fields.

He finally tried to move his wife, nine sons, four daughters and grandchildren out of Marjah earlier Tuesday but said militants told him to return home because they had mined the surrounding roads.

Local Taliban leaders have also promised not to fight "face-to-face," but rather to lay down their arms and wait for ISAF troops to leave Marja (h/t Spencer Ackerman). This is a message aimed largely at potential ISAF supporters among the civilian population: When your protectors leave, we'll take our revenge on you.