Posturing in Damascus and Jerusalem

"In the absence of an arrangement with Syria, we are liable to enter a belligerent clash with it that could reach the point of an all-out, regional war," Barak was quoted by local daily Ha'aretz as telling senior Israel Defense Forces (IDF) officers.

"Just like the familiar reality in the Middle East, we will immediately sit down (with the Syrians) after such a war and negotiate on the exact same issues which we have been discussing with them for the last 15 years," said the defense minister.

Barak has long advocated talks with Syria; he's somewhat to the left of Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu on this issue (and many others). But Damascus interpreted his remarks as a threat: Syrian foreign minister Walid al-Moallem accused Israel of "planting the seeds of war" in the region, and threatened to attack Israeli cities if the IDF invades Syria.

Moallem's boss, Bashar al-Assad, later said Israel wasn't serious about wanting to resume peace talks and accused it of pushing the region towards war (عربي).

Next up: The ever-diplomatic Israeli foreign minister, Avigdor Lieberman, who warned Assad that a war with Israel would topple his regime.

Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman warned Syrian President Bashar Assad on Thursday that in an event of war with Israel, "not only will you lose the war, you and your family will no longer be in power."

[...] "I tell Assad and [Syrian Foreign Minister Walid] al-Moallem clearly - what was said yesterday marked a dramatic change of game, a direct threat on the State of Israel. I think that a line was crossed, and this cannot be tolerated," the foreign minister said.

Lieberman also called Syria a member of the "axis of evil" -- an upgrade, I guess, since George W. Bush never made Syria more than a junior associate -- and told Assad to "let go of the demand for the Golan," which he said Israel would never return.

So now Netanyahu wants everyone to stop talking about Syria, and an aide told reporters that Bibi really does want to resume peace talks.

This is all posturing; it's not going to lead to a military confrontation, any more than increased Israeli-Hizballah threats will lead to a war. But it shows you how deep the divisions are within the Netanyahu government. You can argue that Lieberman's belligerent remark about regime change was just a response to Moallem's comments -- but it's clear that the Israeli foreign minister does not support talking to Damascus. Barak does.

And Netanyahu is playing both sides: He's willing to talk, but only if Syria doesn't insist on the Golan as a precondition, which he knows the Syrian government will never accept.