Low expectations for the Yemen conference

The reality... is that all of Yemen's current problems stem from the economic problem. I hope it does not become a failed state, Yemen. There is a danger of that, of course, and we need to confront our challenges and stay away from political infighting... Yemen suffers from a serious economic problem, it has a serious poverty problem, a serious unemployment problem, particularly among the youth.

But don't expect much in the way of substance from the conference: The main deliverable is the creation of a "Friends of Yemen" organization; Western countries are not expected to offer Yemen new funds, and they can't hope to accomplish anything in a two-hour conference that will fundamentally reshape Yemen's economy. And Qirbi has ruled out serious discussion of internal political reforms.

On the security front, any push for greater counterterrorism coordination will probably meet with mixed reactions from Yemeni officials. Qirbi and others have pushed the "respect our sovereignty" line in recent days; they're keen to show a domestic audience that the Yemeni government won't leave this conference totally beholden to the West.

There's already a great deal of cooperation, as the Washington Post reports in a big Dana Priest story on U.S. involvement in Yemen.

The American advisers do not take part in raids in Yemen, but help plan missions, develop tactics and provide weapons and munitions. Highly sensitive intelligence is being shared with the Yemeni forces, including electronic and video surveillance, as well as three-dimensional terrain maps and detailed analysis of the al-Qaeda network.

(I should note that little of Priest's story is really new: The broad outlines of U.S.-Yemeni cooperation have been well known for months.)