A repeat of summer 2006? Not likely

Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hizballah, said on Jan. 16 that his group would "crush the enemy" and "change the face of the region" in the event of another war.

And then there's this dire assessment from Yossi Peled, an Israeli minister-without-portfolio and a member of prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party.

"A military conflict with Lebanon is inevitable," Peled said. "Without a doubt we are heading for another round (of fighting) in the North. No one knows when, but it's clear that it will happen. We did not know that the Second Lebanon War was going to break out."

Netanyahu had to walk back Peled's remarks: He issued a statement on Saturday insisting that Israel is not looking for war.

Preparing for war, but not seeking it

None of this is encouraging -- but does it mean another war is imminent? Not necessarily.

Israeli threats are nothing new, after all. Netanyahu warned back in August that Israel would hold the Lebanese government responsible for any attacks staged by Hizballah. Israel's defense minister, Ehud Barak, has repeatedly made similar threats. And Lebanon warned the United Nations in November that Israel was preparing an imminent attack.

Dire reports of a military buildup in Lebanon are nothing new, either. A Kuwaiti newspaper -- admittedly never the most reliable of sources -- claimed in October that the Syrian government had transferred a large cache of rockets to Hizballah.

Both sides are clearly preparing for conflict: Israel is conducting exercises along the border, and laying the rhetorical framework for another large-scale invasion of Lebanon; Hizballah is digging in, both north and south of the Litani. But there's still no casus belli. The Israeli-Lebanese border has been largely quiet for months, save for a couple of Katyusha rockets in September.

The IDF, which doesn't consider the 2006 war one of its shining moments, has shown little interest in another asymmetric war in south Lebanon. And Hizballah -- its public image tarnished because of the 2006 war (and its brief occupation of west Beirut in 2008) -- is reluctant to start another costly conflict. Nasrallah's statements are brash, but they're also entirely defensive (عربي). He's not threatening to invade Israel -- just to crush Israel if it strikes first.

The wild card: Iran

There's one big variable here, and that's whether or not Israel decides to attack Iran's nuclear facilities.

I don't think that will happen -- not in the short term, at least -- but if it does, another confrontation with Hizballah seems likely. Many Israeli analysts believe Iran is restraining Hizballah, because it views the Lebanese militia as a strategic asset -- a tool for retaliating against Israel if the Jewish state bombs the Islamic Republic's nuclear facilities.

Barring that, though, it doesn't seem Israel and Hizballah are headed for war anytime soon. The stakes are too high -- the consequences too severe -- and the lessons of 2006 still too fresh on both sides.