Hamas claims to have foiled plot to find Shalit

Shalit, a corporal in the Israeli Defense Forces, was captured in June 2006, setting off that summer's conflict between Israel and Palestinian forces in Gaza. He has since been held incommunicado, likely by Hamas somewhere in Gaza. According to reports, Israel has recently agreed to release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners in exchange for Shalit, but Hamas has balked at Israel's refusal to free high-profile figures such as Marwan Barghouti, who is serving five life sentences for murder.

Shalit's case has stuck in the craw of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other leading Israeli politicians, who face intense pressure from their constituents to bring him home but are loath to free Palestinians whom many Israelis feel sure would immediately begin plotting retaliation.

A rescue operation would have the obvious benefit of retrieving Shalit without any of the nasty bargaining that's held up the process for more than three years. But what might the consequences be? Would an enraged Hamas launch rocket and suicide bomber strikes on Israel? Or would cooler heads realize the organization had been outsmarted and that any violent response would just provoke Israel into another Cast Lead?

It's an interesting thought exercise, but one which likely won't play out in reality.