Netanyahu, in Cairo for talks, tries to siphon opposition

Late last week, Netanyahu offered Tzipi Livni, the leader of the centrist Kadima party, the chance to join his center-right Likud government. On Sunday, it became clear that Netanyahu's proposition, at least in its initial form, would lead to no substantive shifts in policy and include only two cabinet posts - with no portfolios. Livni rejected the offer on Monday.

On one level, Netanyahu and Livni are simply haggling over the inevitable. But Livni's heated rhetoric seems to indicate a more violent tug of war behind the scenes. Making his offer on Sunday, Netanyahu invoked Menachem Begin, saying Livni should form a coalition as Begin did with then-Prime Minister Levi Eshkol prior to the 1967 Six Day War.

"I hope Livni understands how crucial time is," Netanyahu said.

Livni apparently did not take kindly to the pressure.

"The cynical use of threats in order to appear to be calling for an emergency government - and bring in parts of Kadima - is not an act worthy of a prime minister," she said.

Livni's fiery response - she also accused Netanyahu of "dirty politics" and "gutter politics" - may have something to do with Netanyahu's reported attempt to siphon away a handful of Kadima members from behind Livni's back.

Livni managed to corral her party, which unanimously voted on Monday for a unity government only if it featured a "true partnership," but some of her fellow Knesset members (MKs) are apparently nearing open rebellion. Sources in Netanyahu's administration claimed to the Jerusalem Post that 17 Kadima MKs had criticized Livni's leadership in recent private conversations. Netanyahu's transportation minister, Yisrael Katz, indicated that the prime minister needs only to find one additional Kadima MK to get the seven legally needed to split off a new party.

The wrangling has ignited internal intrigue in both Livni and Netanyahu's parties. Netanyahu's attempt to split and absorb a faction of Kadima has angered some Likud MKs, who would rather not see "leftists" enter their government.

But that was Netanyahu's problem from the beginning, Akiva Eldar wrote in a Haaretz column on Tuesday.

Netanyahu is not trying to enlarge his government because a new war is threatening Israel's citizens. Rather, he is scared the peace process will threaten the wholeness of his government. He needs Kadima to fill the ranks that will empty in the wake of the departure of his partners from Yisrael Beiteinu and the National Union, and perhaps also some members of the Likud.

Eldar's opinion was shared by Batsheva Sobelman, writing for the Los Angeles Times' Babylon & Beyond blog on Saturday.

Government in Israel's multiple-party system is complicated. The largest party has to negotiate agreements with several others to secure a stable alliance. Best to start big; the public feels this reflects unity and responsibility, the captain secures weight to throw overboard during a political storm without capsizing. When things get messy, government gets simplified and becomes a modular, lego-like thing. And when new pieces are attached, this suggests others are about to break off the structure.

If Netanyahu makes concessions to the Palestinians, he'll suffer from the right. If he doesn't make enough, he'll suffer from the left.

(There's also a hint of revenge in Netanyahu's initial gambit to steal away some of Livni's MKs, Sobelman wrote: It was Kadima, during its creation four years ago by then-Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, that peeled away some Likudniks.)

George Mitchell, President Obama's special envoy to the Middle East, is reportedly preparing to visit the region soon with a statement of principles to serve as a foundation for renewed Israeli-Palestinian negotiations in the new year. One of the statement's pillars, which Netanyahu has quietly accepted, is to base the negotiations on a Palestinian state with 1967 borders, according to Eldar.

Such an agreement could immediately kick start substantive talks. It would also lead to the mutiny of a certain number of Netanyahu's right-wing cabinet members. But it may also be Netanyahu's best play, assuming he does want to make an effort at peace during his administration, because it wouldn't necessarily require a settlement freeze. Majlis readers will recall that Netanyahu's cabinet, earlier this month, agreed on a new map of national economic priority areas that essentially awarded payouts to West Bank settlements on the Palestinian side of the separation barrier. Perhaps Netanyahu can hold onto a few allies that way.

Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit sounded a skeptical note on Tuesday after the Mubarak-Netanyahu meeting. "We have seen that the Israeli prime minister wants to move ahead, and he insists on moving ahead, but we insist on an agreed platform" that includes a settlement freeze, he told Al-Jazeera. Yet the BBC News report on the meeting says that Aboul Gheit has previously conditioned peace talks on a settlement freeze or the guarantee of a Palestinian state on 1967 borders. I can't vouch for that, but it would be a boon to Netanyahu if true.

In the midst of all this, Netanyahu's extremist foreign minister, Avigdor Lieberman, is coming under increased fire. A Haaretz editorial that called for his firing on Tuesday said that Lieberman's views on peace with the Palestinians - and other Arab regimes - have become intolerably obstructionist. If Netanyahu does sack Lieberman, that would certainly make it easier to sweeten the offer to Livni. Either way, the opening weeks of 2010 promise to be interesting in Israel.