The political risk for Netanyahu

One thing we haven't really discussed, amidst the latest round of rumors about a possible deal for Gilad Shalit's release, is the political ramifications of such a deal within Israel.

Shalit's plight has taken an outsized role in Israeli politics and public life, so his release, by itself, would give Netanyahu a big political boost. But there's a potential complication: If yesterday's press reports are accurate, Netanyahu will be releasing hundreds of Palestinian militants to secure Shalit's release.

So Netanyahu would be exposing his right flank by agreeing to a prisoner swap. Several members of the hard-right National Union party held a press conference to denounce the proposed deal; one even called for Netanyahu's resignation. They referred to the "red lines" drawn by former prime minister Ehud Olmert, who said he would not free "mega murderers" in exchange for Shalit.

"Netanyahu is crossing (former PM Ehud) Olmert's red lines. Netanyahu does not stop at red light; not even Olmert's red light," said National Union MK Arieh Eldad.
"The murderers that will be released killed between one and 65 people each. Start calculating how many Israelis might pay with their lives for the government's irresponsible decision," said Eldad.

[...] MK Yaakov Katz (National Union) called on Netanyahu to resign, saying "we decided to convene at the last moment. We are not naïve; we know that once a decision has been made, the chance of changing the government's mind is close to zero.

How much of a political liability is this, though? In a poll conducted over the summer by the Rafi Smith Institute, 69 percent of Israelis said they'd be willing to release prisoners "with blood on their hands" to free Shalit. Only 23 percent said they were opposed. And 62 percent of Israelis said Olmert didn't do enough to free Shalit -- a clear sign that his "red lines" policy isn't universally popular.

National Union is a small party, with just 4 seats in the 120-member Knesset. But Netanyahu depends on a coalition of right-wing parties -- Yisrael Beiteinu and Shas, for instance -- who might be similarly opposed to releasing militants.

If nothing else, the Shalit negotiations illustrate how tenuous Netanyahu's coalition is, and how difficult that makes the "peace process." Even if Bibi wanted to pursue a more conciliatory path with Palestine, his governing coalition would drag him to the right. (And there's no strong, outspoken left-wing coalition to keep the debate centered.)

There's also a long-term risk, of course: If one of the released prisoners ever carries out a terrorist attack, Netanyahu (and his Likud party) would face relentless criticism.

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