Shalit to be released this week?

Marwan Barghouti is reportedly one of the prisoners scheduled for release. He's currently serving five life sentences for a bombing in Tel Aviv; he's also considered a possible candidate to replace Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas.

Israel's deputy foreign minister, Danny Ayalon, said earlier this month that Barghouti would not be released if he plans to run against Abbas.

The deal could still fall through, of course, as these tentative deals have before. Hamas still insists on the release of one unnamed prisoner who Israel is reportedly "unprepared to release," according to Ha'aretz. Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu refused to comment on the story; senior Hamas officials said only that there has been "movement" on Shalit.

Politicians often mark Eid al-Adha by granting amnesties, so the timing of the deal would make sense.

I'm always skeptical of Shalit stories, mostly because they've all been false alarms so far. But the timing of this one is interesting, coming on the heels of Hamas' reported deal to end rocket attacks on Israel. These are "governance" moves, not "resistance" moves. I get the feeling Hamas is looking east, to Ramallah, where it sees Fatah's political weakness as an opportunity to rehabilitate its own tarnished image.

A Shalit deal, coupled with a cease-fire, could lead to an easing of the Israeli blockade on Gaza; Barghouti's release could help lead to Hamas-Fatah reconciliation. Hamas' domestic political standing would get a major boost.