The messy realities of governing in Lebanon

Governing was always going to be a challenge for Hariri, whose March 14 coalition was always united more by opposition to something (Syria) than by any affirmative political goals. We're already seeing fractures within the coalition: Walid Jumblatt's sort-of withdrawal, for example, and the Phalange party's threat to withdraw from the cabinet.

Hariri will need to build a new coalition, which means reaching "across the aisle" to some of his former foes in March 8 (and also to Jumblatt).

The most immediate challenge for Hariri's government is issuing a policy statement, which the cabinet expects to do before November 22, Lebanon's independence day. The statement is expected to be brief, perhaps just five pages long; it will outline brief policy positions on 25 major issues. Hariri said today at an Arab banking conference that the statement would focus largely on economics.

The Daily Star reported yesterday that two-thirds of the statement (16 of the 25 items) has been agreed upon by the cabinet. Two of the remaining issues -- electoral reform and disarming Hizballah -- are critically important. The cabinet seems likely to make progress on only one of them.

Electoral reform on the agenda?

"It's ironic," Yacoubian said. "Lebanon has by far the most vibrant civil society in the Arab world... and it also has maybe its most archaic electoral system."

Lebanon has a round of municipal elections coming up next spring, and parliament is under pressure to implement a number of electoral reforms ahead of the vote. One is direct election for municipality heads, who are currently appointed by local council members. Another is the use of official pre-printed ballots (Lebanon currently doesn't have them).

Lebanon's new interior minister, Ziad Baroud, said Tuesday that he would consider postponing the election to allow time for implementing reforms.

The cabinet is also expected to consider larger reforms, including one from the Boutros Commission, formed in August 2005, which proposed a "mixed proportional" voting system for parliamentary elections. MPs are currently elected by a majority vote at the qada (administrative district) level. The commission recommended a hybrid system, whereby 77 MPs would be elected under the current system, and 51 would be chosen on a proportional basis at the muhafiza (governorate) level.

That switch would benefit non-confessional parties, which often struggle to attract enough majority support to win seats in parliament.

Reformists have also proposed the creation of elected councils at the qada level.

Baroud has spoken favorably of the Boutros Commission's work -- indeed, he was disappointed when parliament didn't adopt its recommendations last year -- and he's expected to push for further electoral reforms over the next few years.

Disarming Hizballah

So there's reason for optimism on electoral reform. Not so much on the other big issue, disarming Hizballah.

Hizballah's position has undoubtedly weakened over the last three years, in part because of its 2006 war with Israel and its decision to invade West Beirut in 2008. But legislators still haven't shown much appetite for disarming the group.

Parliament speaker Nabih Berri, who heads the Amal party (a March 8 member), described Hizballah's weapons as a "guarantee against the naturalization of Palestinian refugees in the country," according to the Daily Star. And tourism minister Fadi Abboud, who belongs to the Change and Reform bloc, told Lebanese television that Hizballah's arms "are not up for discussion."

In an interview with LBCI television on Thursday, Tourism Minister Fadi Abboud said that "the Resistance is Lebanon's treasure," and that Lebanon cannot negotiate with Israel if Hezbollah is to disarm. He added that Prime Minister Saad Hariri's rhetoric following the 2009 parliamentary elections clearly suggests that Hezbollah's arms are not up for discussion.

There have been some intriguing reports this month that Hizballah invited Lebanon's Internal Security Forces (ISF) to start patrolling in Dahiyeh, a south Beirut suburb and Hizballah stronghold that is basically a no-go zone for the ISF. Hizballah's deputy leader, Sheikh Naim Qassem, told An-Nahar today (عربي) that the state "already has authority" in Dahiyeh (the state might argue otherwise).

This campaign was not intended to bring the state back to Dahiyeh, because the state already has power there. Instead... it is aimed at ensuring security and meeting the demands of the people on cultural, moral and social issues.

All of this suggests the new government will take largely the same approach to Hizballah as the old government. Ministers will keep talking about Hizballah as a legitimate resistance movement, rather than an extra-constitutional militia; they'll gloss over the state's lack of authority in places like Dahiyeh.

I don't think the group will pick a fight with Israel, so the uneasy detente of the last few years will continue -- hopefully. That seems like the best-case scenario right now.