Mr. Larijani goes to Baghdad

A reader passes along the news, which I missed, that Iranian parliament speaker Ali Larijani is in Baghdad for a four-day visit.

Larijani is reportedly "mediating" between Iraqi prime minister Nouri al-Maliki and Ammar Al-Hakim, the head of the Supreme Islamic Council of Iraq. Hakim formed a coalition earlier this year, the Iraqi National Alliance, with Moqtada al-Sadr's movement; Maliki broke away from that Shi'ite alliance -- or was forced out, depending on who you ask -- and formed his own State of Law coalition.

By encouraging reconciliation between Maliki and Hakim, Larijani is trying to create a united Shi'ite front in the 2010 election.

A Maliki-Hakim alliance would undoubtedly shatter Maliki's non-sectarian State of Law coalition, which includes small Kurdish and Turkomen parties and a smattering of Sunni lawmakers. The INA is viewed as pro-Iranian, and non-Shi'ite parties would want no part of it.

It's also hard to see why Maliki would voluntarily join Hakim's coalition. There was talk in August that Maliki might join the INA, but the coalition's leadership refused to guarantee that he could keep his prime minister's job. So Maliki balked, gambling on his own non-sectarian coalition. If Maliki joins the INA, he seemingly locks himself out of the top job.

Larijani's visit has stirred up a lot of controversy in Iraq: Roughly 100 lawmakers boycotted his visit to the parliament because of Iran's "meddling" in Iraqi affairs. Iran is believed to supply armed groups in Iraq, and Iraqi lawmakers are also angry about several new dams on the Karun River in Iran, which have deprived Basra province of water.

Whatever the outcome of his trip, Larijani's visit is a reminder that Iran is playing a long game in Iraq. The U.S. is focused on cajoling the Iraqi parliament into finalizing an election law. The Iranian government is focused on what happens next.

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