Does Germany think Iran is building nukes?

Specifically, on this paragraph.

German intelligence officials take an even harder line against Iran. They say the weapons work never stopped, a judgment made public last year in a German court case involving shipments of banned technology to Tehran. In recent interviews, German intelligence agencies declined to comment further.

This rang a bell, so I went digging through our archives. We covered this allegation in July: An unnamed German intelligence analyst told Stern magazine that Iran could develop a nuclear weapon within six months. Germany's BND intelligence service immediately denied that claim, saying "it would take years" for Iran to develop nukes. The BND doesn't say whether Iran is still actively pursuing nuclear weapons -- but if it would take years to develop them, there is at least the possibility that the BND thinks Iran is not, right?

Now, here's where this story gets complicated. The NYT piece mentions a German court case. That would be the case of Mohsen Vanaki, a German-Iranian businessman who allegedly sold dual-use technology to Iran -- technology that can be used in developing nuclear weapons.

Vanaki was acquitted at trial on the basis of the 2007 U.S. National Intelligence Estimate, which concluded Iran had stopped its nuclear weapons program. If there was no weapons program, the court ruled, then Vanaki hadn't committed a crime.

But that ruling was dismissed on appeal, because the appeals court considered an intelligence estimate from Germany's BND, which suggested that Iran was pursuing nuclear weapons.

The trial court considered the same BND report, though, and dismissed it as "extremely vague." And the appeals court admitted the BND report was not conclusive, saying only that it was "sufficiently likely" as to warrant re-opening Vanaki's case.

Unfortunately, the full BND report is not available to the public. But between the trial court's dismissal and the appellate court's hedging, again, there is at least the possibility that the BND doesn't think Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons.

This is a little convoluted, I know, but the NYT should have included some of this context in its report. The article makes the BND sound far more certain than it actually is.