The Palestinian election deadline
An interesting take from The Arabist on why Egypt is abandoning its push for a Palestinian unity government:
... having Palestinian reconciliation now necessarily means presenting the Obama administration with a unity government they are not able to accept (although they should) for domestic political reasons, i.e. the Israel lobbies (I think AIPAC and J Street would sing to the same tune here)... the entire US push for a Middle East Peace Process (MEPP) would fall apart.
That seems a plausible scenario and a smart reading of the behind-the-scenes politics.
But I can't say I share The Arabist's guarded optimism that some kind of reconciliation is possible after the 2010 election. Hamas and Fatah haven't even agreed on a framework under which to hold the elections: Should they use the Oslo Accords? The Cairo Agreement? Hamas will be reluctant to participate under any framework that gives the PLO too much authority.
And as this IFES report (pdf) points out, the framework needs the support of not only Hamas and Fatah but Israel and the "international community."
Once that's decided, the PA will need two or three months to prepare for the election -- printing ballots, selecting officials for polling stations, etc. So Hamas and Fatah need to agree on a political framework by mid-November -- at the latest -- to meet their goal of holding an election on January 24.
That's not impossible, especially if Egypt keeps mediating some kind of dialogue between the two parties. But I'm not terribly optimistic.
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