Succession in Egypt

More on Mubarak transition

The Irish Times, of all places, has an article up saying that Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak intends to resign sometime soon, dissolve parliament and move up presidential elections scheduled for 2011.

We all know the play by now: Mubarak resigns, and parliament approves his son, Gamal, for the presidency. Many perceive recent mass arrests of Muslim Brotherhood members as a pre-emptive strike on the opposition to make Gamal's ascension smoother.

But as we've noted, Gamal isn't popular, and intelligence chief Omar Suleiman could try to steal the crown.

The Irish Times cites the Saudi press for the reports on Mubarak's intentions - Mubarak apparently told Saudi King Abdullah his plans during a recent visit to the country - but we have yet to find a direct source for this news.

Anyway, it seems pretty likely that Mubarak won't let the matter of his transition go to a real election in 2011 (if there is such a thing as a real election in Egypt), and it would help Gamal if he was in power for a time before facing a vote, rigged or not.

No Comments

Post a Comment

An early endorsement for Gamal!

Pope Shenouda III, the head of the Coptic church, has endorsed Gamal Mubarak for Egypt's next president -- even though Gamal is not officially running for office yet.

Midan (Gamal) Mubarak

Gamal Mubarak, Hosni's son, is getting a public square named after him in Asyut because of his 'contributions to fighting poverty in Upper Egypt.'

B'Tselem: Settlements occupy 42 percent of West Bank

Ben-Eliezer makes "secret trip" to Turkey: Israeli TV

CENTCOM talking sense on Hamas and Hizballah

Al-Akhbar: Our weekly brief

Peace Processing

Talking about direct talks: Netanyahu returns to the White House

Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu delivering a statement in Jerusalem on July 1, 2010. (Photo: AFP)
US president Barack Obama will use a White House meeting with Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu to push for an extended West Bank settlement freeze. If Netanyahu doesn't offer one - and the domestic politics are quite difficult for him - it's hard to see any possibility of direct talks with the Palestinian Authority later this year.

The Afghan Surge

Obama's southern strategy

Gen. David Petraeus testifying on Capitol Hill. (Photo: Reuters)
The president's decision to nominate Gen. David Petraeus as the commander of US and NATO forces in Afghanistan won't mean a major change in strategy. But there are mounting reasons for pessimism about current policy, particularly the relentless focus on southern Afghanistan. The deployment of tens of thousands of additional troops to Kandahar and Helmand serves few NATO objectives.

Freedom Flotilla Killings

Anticlimax: How much did the flotilla raid really change regional politics?

A demonstration in London against the Israeli attack on the Gaza-bound flotilla. (Photo: AFP)
It has accelerated Israel's isolation from several of its neighbors and allies; it has sharpened divisions within Turkish domestic politics; it has deepened perceptions that the Obama administration as too close to Israel. And it seems to have had a remarkably minor impact on Palestinian domestic politics.