What's up with the Egypt missile deal?
Remember that weird bit of news from last week, about Egypt trying to buy some missile defense systems from Russia? Some new speculation on a blog called Bint al-Beltway (h/t The Arabist) got me wondering: Could it be that the real story here is a three-way play between Egypt, the United States and Israel to keep advanced systems out of Iran's hands?
Bint al-Beltway kicks it off by wondering: If the price of the high-tech S-300s and S-400s is steep, where would Egypt's money come from? More than likely, from the enormous pot of funding Egypt gets every year from the U.S. as part of the 1979 Camp David accords (making it the second-largest recipient of America's foreign aid behind Israel).
And if the U.S. is going to help Egypt buy Russian defense systems, what it wants in return might be a peak at the systems themselves. That would be much nicer than theorizing about their capabilities with computerized predictions.
Bint al-Beltway writes:
This would be especially beneficial to the US given that many of the countries that have bought these Russian weapons are those likely to be engaged in confrontation with the US in the future.
Iran had also been trying to get its hands on the missiles, and Russia told Israeli officials that if they didn't want that to happen, they'd have to shell out some cash of their own or find someone else to buy.
Despite the off again, on again bellicosity between the two countries, Gregg speculated that Egypt might actually be the alternative buyer Israel found to keep the systems out of Iran's hands.
So here's my conspiracy theory:
Iran, which has undergone severe turmoil in recent weeks and now faces sanctions for maintaining its nuclear program, wants to buy some super advanced air defense systems from Russia. Israel, which may want to attack Iran's nuclear facilities at some point, doesn't want Iran to beef up its defenses. But Israel won't buy the weapons themselves, so they need an alternative. The U.S., which also doesn't want Iran to improve its ground-to-air shield, suggests Egypt, which wants the missiles for a number of reasons - a prominent one being to protect itself, ironically, from Israel. In return for being a middle man, the U.S. will get a few S-300s and S-400s of its own to play with.
Russia makes a profit on the sale, Egypt gets a kwayis awee aweeair defense system, Israel keeps Iran vulnerable to an airstrike, and the U.S. gets to make its two pals in the Middle East happy while taking a look beneath the hood of some Russian hardware.






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