What's up with the Egypt missile deal?

Remember that weird bit of news from last week, about Egypt trying to buy some missile defense systems from Russia? Some new speculation on a blog called Bint al-Beltway (h/t The Arabist) got me wondering: Could it be that the real story here is a three-way play between Egypt, the United States and Israel to keep advanced systems out of Iran's hands?

Bint al-Beltway kicks it off by wondering: If the price of the high-tech S-300s and S-400s is steep, where would Egypt's money come from? More than likely, from the enormous pot of funding Egypt gets every year from the U.S. as part of the 1979 Camp David accords (making it the second-largest recipient of America's foreign aid behind Israel).

And if the U.S. is going to help Egypt buy Russian defense systems, what it wants in return might be a peak at the systems themselves. That would be much nicer than theorizing about their capabilities with computerized predictions.

Bint al-Beltway writes:

This would be especially beneficial to the US given that many of the countries that have bought these Russian weapons are those likely to be engaged in confrontation with the US in the future.

Iran had also been trying to get its hands on the missiles, and Russia told Israeli officials that if they didn't want that to happen, they'd have to shell out some cash of their own or find someone else to buy.

Despite the off again, on again bellicosity between the two countries, Gregg speculated that Egypt might actually be the alternative buyer Israel found to keep the systems out of Iran's hands.

So here's my conspiracy theory:

Iran, which has undergone severe turmoil in recent weeks and now faces sanctions for maintaining its nuclear program, wants to buy some super advanced air defense systems from Russia. Israel, which may want to attack Iran's nuclear facilities at some point, doesn't want Iran to beef up its defenses. But Israel won't buy the weapons themselves, so they need an alternative. The U.S., which also doesn't want Iran to improve its ground-to-air shield, suggests Egypt, which wants the missiles for a number of reasons - a prominent one being to protect itself, ironically, from Israel. In return for being a middle man, the U.S. will get a few S-300s and S-400s of its own to play with.

Russia makes a profit on the sale, Egypt gets a kwayis awee aweeair defense system, Israel keeps Iran vulnerable to an airstrike, and the U.S. gets to make its two pals in the Middle East happy while taking a look beneath the hood of some Russian hardware.

No Comments

Post a Comment

The Egyptian military goes shopping

Why is Egypt buying air defense systems? Egypt might be worried about other threats from Iran -- Hizballah sleeper cells, for instance. But I can't imagine the Egyptian military is concerned about a missile attack.

Peres: Russia to reconsider Iran missile sale

Israeli president Shimon Peres says Russia will reconsider its decision to sell S-300 air defense missiles to Iran.

B'Tselem: Settlements occupy 42 percent of West Bank

Ben-Eliezer makes "secret trip" to Turkey: Israeli TV

CENTCOM talking sense on Hamas and Hizballah

Al-Akhbar: Our weekly brief

Peace Processing

Talking about direct talks: Netanyahu returns to the White House

Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu delivering a statement in Jerusalem on July 1, 2010. (Photo: AFP)
US president Barack Obama will use a White House meeting with Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu to push for an extended West Bank settlement freeze. If Netanyahu doesn't offer one - and the domestic politics are quite difficult for him - it's hard to see any possibility of direct talks with the Palestinian Authority later this year.

The Afghan Surge

Obama's southern strategy

Gen. David Petraeus testifying on Capitol Hill. (Photo: Reuters)
The president's decision to nominate Gen. David Petraeus as the commander of US and NATO forces in Afghanistan won't mean a major change in strategy. But there are mounting reasons for pessimism about current policy, particularly the relentless focus on southern Afghanistan. The deployment of tens of thousands of additional troops to Kandahar and Helmand serves few NATO objectives.

Freedom Flotilla Killings

Anticlimax: How much did the flotilla raid really change regional politics?

A demonstration in London against the Israeli attack on the Gaza-bound flotilla. (Photo: AFP)
It has accelerated Israel's isolation from several of its neighbors and allies; it has sharpened divisions within Turkish domestic politics; it has deepened perceptions that the Obama administration as too close to Israel. And it seems to have had a remarkably minor impact on Palestinian domestic politics.