Mubarakology

Hosni Mubarak is 81, and not a healthy 81, either. Egypt is going to have to deal with presidential succession soon.

The issue is still basically off-limits; you can go to jail for suggesting Hosni won't live forever. But, as the New York Times reports, the Egyptian media are starting to write about it.

"The laws of life have brought the moment that can no longer be delayed, forcing us to discuss the issue of the alternative," wrote Hossam Abdel Baseer recently in an Egyptian opposition daily, Al Wafd.

The Egyptian government has arrested more than 100 Muslim Brotherhood members in the last two months (including seven last week). And there's talk that Mubarak will dissolve the parliament to replace it with a "friendlier" -- more compliant -- group of legislators.

Both of those developments suggest the ruling National Democratic Party thinks succession is an imminent issue.

I wrote a post on the subject last month. The big question is whether the NDP will try to elevate Gamal Mubarak (Hosni's son) or Omar Suleiman (Hosni's intelligence chief) as his successor. But then there are other questions: who will the army support? What will the Brotherhood do?