Iran: Which way forward for Obama?

If the Iranian leaders had to deal with a true democratic system that demands consensus, then Mousavi's uprising may have shifted some policies, but Khamenei, Ahmadinejad and their ilk don't play the game that way, I think, and will only read the events of the past 3+ weeks as a reaffirmation of their power and the importance of maintaining their version of the Iranian "revolution."

They are likely to push forward on the issues of nuclear power (and probably nuclear weapons), a domestic crackdown against the opposition, and bellicose diplomacy toward the West (such as putting British diplomatic personnel on trial).

Domestically, Mousavi's failed uprising and Khamenei's repression also present Obama with political problems. Neocons will probably assert that they were right all along, that Obama should've inserted himself forcefully into Iranian affairs, and that he bears some of the responsibility for the protests' defeat. Many American citizens with a limited understanding of Iran will probably not understand Obama's reasoning if he persists in forging a new relationship with Iran, not with dead students on the streets.

Finally, internationally, we're already seeing signs of a split. Europe, particularly the United Kingdom, is Iran's new punching bag, and Gordon Brown has spoken forcefully against the Iranian regime. They've moved to sanction Iran, and it sounds like the U.S. might oppose them.

But this could be the one positive thing Obama can take away from the Iranian election. Let's assume that despite the violence, despite the outcry from American political bloggers, despite the bloody killings, Obama doesn't really care. What I mean is: Obama is the president of the United States. He can be moved by the death of Neda, for instance, but he can't let it determine our foreign policy. If Obama and his advisors have determined that it's in our national interest to have better relations with Iran, no matter who's in charge, then this international split of opinion gives Obama a chance to play good cop.

How strange is it that the U.S. is opposing sanctions against Iran? This is bizarro territory, but it could be brilliant. Because while the Iranian regime might be emboldened, there has also got to be at least a sliver of doubt in their minds about what could happen to them. Iranian politicians are mostly rational actors (maybe besides Ahmadinejad), and right now they see themselves ostracized once again, with only China and maybe Russia on their side. Syria wants better relations with the U.S., and Israel wants to hit Iran hard. What a perfect time for them to get on America's good side.

The leadership in Iran has proven itself to be cold-hearted and violent, if not evil. Yet if we are able to engage them, I wonder if we might see a thaw in the coming decade. I would lean toward yes, but there are many obstacles in Obama's way right now.