Barak set to lobby Barack

As a political maneuver, though, giving Israel a settlement ultimatum works well. I get the sense that settlements are increasingly unpopular even in Israel, and, depending on how you read international law, they're potentially illegal. Previous administrations, include that of George W. Bush, have laid the groundwork for a settlement freeze. All Obama had to do was put his money where his mouth was.

So now Barak comes to Washington for a meeting with Mitchell, in the wake of canceled talks between the two in Paris. Israel is trying to say that they called off the Paris talks because they needed to brush up on policy, or some such thing. Israeli paper Yedioth Ahronoth (via The National) quotes an anonymous source - it's unclear whether they are American or Israeli - saying the United States actually sent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu - who recently affirmed his opposition to Obama's settlement demand - a knuckle-rapping message:

"Once you've finished the homework we gave you on stopping construction in the settlements, let us know. Until then, there's no point in having Mitchell fly to Paris to meet you."

Forgive me for speculating, but it wouldn't surprise me if we really did send Bibi that message, and Rahm Emanuel was the messenger.

If the U.S. gets a deal from Israel on the settlement freeze, then the focus will move to the next qualification Israel has put on peace talks - Palestinian recognition of Israel as a "Jewish state." See how this works? We never actually have to come to a resolution, because in a disagreement between two peoples who each have two-thousand-year-old claims to the Holy Land, there are a million technicalities.

Now, we Americans technically pledge allegiance to "one nation, under God," and we do have plenty of elected officials who would probably love to make all new immigrants declare themselves, at the least, believers in a monotheistic religion, but America has never declared itself an officially Christian nation.

We're not Israel, obviously, but isn't it bothersome to imagine Israel demanding that the 20 percent of its population who are Arabs (and thus mainly Muslim, with some Christians) acknowledge that Israel is a "Jewish" nation?

On the other hand, it seems a small concession to make, given that Israel would in return acknowledge an independent, majority Arab, majority Muslim country called Palestine.

So despite, Israel's harrumphing, and its current opposition to a settlement freeze, I think the likeliest scenario is, indeed, a halt to all new settlement construction. An unenviable outcome, perhaps, for the Palestinian Arabs who still have to live next to hundreds of outposts (read: suburbs) inhabited by often surly Jews who don't see any reason why the orange grove down the road, which may have belonged to their Arab neighbor's family for a hundred years, should now be their's.

In return for a freeze, Obama will probably tacitly support Netanyahu's demand that Israel be recognized as a Jewish state. I don't think that's actually very hard to accept. Meanwhile, if we're lucky, the longtime roadblock that is the Palestinian demand for a "right of return" may slowly die away. After all, how many Palestinians are left in the world who have even a memory of 1948 nakhba? Someone who was born that year would be 61 now - someone who came of age would be in their late 70's. Though the younger generation has probably been exposed by their parents to a certain nostalgia for the ancestral family home - now occupied by an Israeli nightclub in all likelihood - the "right of return" quandry will only fade with time.

Once you've done away with all that, you can get down to 100 other brass tacks, like water rights and the boundaries of Jerusalem. Oy vey.