The Washington Post has an op-ed today that tries to debunk the "election was rigged" theory. It cites a New America Foundation poll (pdf) that found 2-to-1 support for Ahmadinejad.
I'm not a statistician, so I can't critique the poll on those grounds. But I want to raise these three caveats:
The poll was conducted from May 11 through May 20 -- before the televised debates that enraptured Iran and the massive campaign rallies that followed. And it found 27 percent of voters were undecided. Presumably those voters made up their minds after the debates and protests, both of which seemed to add to Mousavi's support.
The poll's findings are wildly different from other polls conducted in the days before the election, like this one, which found Mousavi leading with 54 percent of the vote.
Scientific survey or not, the pollsters only interviewed 1,001 people.
Anyone else read the poll or the op-ed? Thoughts?
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Categories: Iranian Elections (2009), Politics
Tags: Iranian elections, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Mir Hossein Mousavi, New America Foundation, Washington Post
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